Quality Road Wins The Woodward–Video Replay YouTube

Here Comes Ben Ships In To Win The Forego–Video Replay YouTube

The Forego is a very strong renewal this year. There are two scratches. Both Starforaday and Charitable Man are out. There is a daily double offered on both races. Godolphin has a solid entry of Vineyard Haven and Girolamo. Girolamo makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year. Big Drama the winner of the Smile Sprint at Calder is in. Warrior’s Reward makes his first start since The Met Mile, where he finished 6th. Here Comes Ben comes in off three straight wins in Kentucky.  Jess Jackson has Omniscient who won a minor stakes race at Monmouth Park on Haskell Day. And the classy Bribon will try the 7 furlongs for the 2nd time in his career in The Forego. Todd Pletcher has the speedy Checklist. You And I Forever completes the field.  Below are the fields and a link to the past performances.

The Forego

Forego Past Performances Click Vineyard Haven Ultimate PPs

The Woodward

Woodward Past Performances Scroll Down Click Quality Road Ultimate PPs

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Vengeful Wildcat will try to make it three straight wins from three starts in The Sapling for 2-year-olds at Monmouth Park

I am a Rachel Alexandra fan, and have been from the beginning.  It’s safe to say she is probably not the same horse as she was last year.

She was able to put away Life At Ten with relative ease running through moderate fractions in the Personal Ensign, but was unable to sustain her momentum to the wire to hold off the late rally of Persistently.  She was as game as could be in defeat.  The mile-and-a-quarter is a bit too far for Rachel Alexandra at this point in time.

She is still a champion and has accomplished things that no other 3-year-old filly in the history of thoroughbred racing has.  It will be a very long time before we see anything like what we saw last year.  She was just simply dominant on all levels.

As for the Zenyatta Vs. Rachel Alexandra nonsense, hopefully people will come to their senses and take each horse for what they are.  I think it’s actually a good thing these two will never met, and likely never will. There is nothing to prove in a race between them anyway.

The Horse of The Year debate is old and tiresome. Rachel Alexandra deserved to be crowned the 2009 Horse of The Year, however I thought both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra should have in the very least shared the title.  The powers that be nixed this idea.

We know what type of horse Zenyatta is. We know what type of horse Rachel Alexandra is. They are both champions.

I love Zenyatta and think she is one of the very best thoroughbreds I have ever watched.  She is simply brilliant.  She has her eyes set on back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Classic wins, and from everything I have seen so far this year, her chances continue to improve by the day she will have every opportunity to win it again.

In the eyes of some, Zenyatta might have been robbed of Horse of The Year last year, but she holds the trump card this year for that top honor. It’s her’s for the taking.

I hope Rachel Alexandra recovers nicely from these last two hard races, and has something big left for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, or whatever race they decide she will run in.

I don’t think there would be anything finer than seeing both of these two wonderful champions go out winners in this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

The only way to watch the Personal Ensign is on TVG or HRTV. There is no main stream coverage either live on TV or streamed via the internet. Replay soon.

Personal Ensign–Match Up of The Summer

This year there have been some really nice races. Rachel Alexandra & Zenyatta have done their thing, albeit against slightly lesser competition. They are two great champions in their own right. They both have delighted the crowds each and every time they have stepped on to the track this year.

The Alabama was a highly-anticipated race, and so was the Whitney. But this Sunday is the one race I have waited to see the moment RA’s crew pegged it on their calendar. The Personal Ensign’s appeal even surpasses that of  The Travers Stakes to an extent this particular year. To me this is the headliner of the year so far. The Personal Ensign is thee main event.

Rachel Alexandra takes on Life At Ten in the Showdown at The Spa in the second day of The NYRA’s “Double Day Spectacular.” And a race that I feel will not leave too many disappointed. Rachel Alexandra has something to prove in the Personal Ensign against a champion race mare in Life At Ten, who is riding a 6 race-winning streak into this. Life At Ten has trained very well leading up to this. She will gun for 7th consecutive win and looks fit and ready. Rachel Alexandra will come in off a race where she won in absolutely brutal, hot conditions at Monmouth Park. The conditions were not fit for man or horse. I don’t think she showed her best that day by any means. I expect her to be at her best for The Personal Ensign.

Personal Ensign Field

Miss Singshix (Ire) – Martin Wolfson, Jose Valdivia, 10/1

Rachel Alexandra – Steve Asmussen, Calvin Borel, 2/5

Persistently – Shug McGaughey, Alan Garcia, 20/1

Life At Ten – Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 5/2

Classofsixtythree – Gary Contessa, Javier Castellano 20/1

Personal Ensign Past Performances–Click Life At Ten Ultimate PPS

Afleet Express Nips Fly Down To Win The Travers Stakes–YouTube Video

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Travers Stakes Official Equibase Chart

Discreetly Mines Smokes Kings Bishop Field–Video YouTube

Travers Stakes Past Performances–Click On Trappe Shot Ultimate PPs

 Travers Field Set

A robust field of 11 thoroughbreds has been assembled for the 141st Travers Stakes this Saturday at Saratoga. It’s a deep competitive field. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will break from the far outside in post position number 11. The morning line favorite A Little Warm will break from post position number 5. Trappe Shot, who was under consideration for the Kings Bishop will break from post position number 2. There will be four graded stakes on the Travers Card. It will be a spectacular day of racing. And the block-buster showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Life At Ten will cap the weekend on Sunday in the Personal Ensign.

141st Travers Stakes Field

1. Miner’s Reserve - Nick Zito, David Cohen, 12/1

2. Trappe Shot - Kiaran McLaughlin, Alan Garcia, 4/1

3. Admiral Alex - Leon Blusiewicz, Kent Desormeaux, 12/1

4. First Dude – Dale Romans, Ramon Dominguez, 8/1

5. A Little Warm – Anthony Dutrow, John Velazquez, 7/2

6. Ice Box – Nick Zito, Julien Leparoux, 10/1

7. Afleet Express - Jimmy Jerkens, Javier Castellano, 6/1

8. Fly Down - Nick Zito, Jose Lezcano, 8/1

9. Friend Or Foe - John Kimmel, Rajiv Maragh, 15/1

10. Afleet Again – Robert Reid, Cornelio Velasquez, 30/1

11. Super Saver - Todd Pletcher, Calvin Borel, 6/1

Personal Ensign–Match Up of The Summer

 This year there have been some really nice races. Rachel Alexandra & Zenyatta have done their thing, albeit against slightly lesser competition. They are two great champions in their own right. They both have delighted the crowds each and every time they have stepped on to the track this year.

The Alabama was a highly-anticipated race, and so was the Whitney. But this Sunday is the one race I have waited to see the moment RA’s crew pegged it on their calendar. The Personal Ensign’s appeal even surpasses that of  The Travers Stakes to an extent this particular year. To me this is the headliner of the year so far. The Personal Ensign is thee main event.

Rachel Alexandra takes on Life At Ten in the “Showdown at The Spa.” And a race that I feel will not leave too many disappointed. Rachel Alexandra has something to prove in the Personal Ensign against a champion race mare in Life At Ten, who is riding a 6 race-winning streak into this. Life At Ten has trained very well leading up to this. She will gun for 7th consecutive win and looks ready. Rachel Alexandra will come in off a race where she won in absolutely brutal, hot conditions at Monmouth Park. Conditions not fit for man or horse. I don’t think she showed her best that day by any means. I expect her to be at her best for this.

And Quality Road next week. Summer is promising to go out with a big bang at the Spa!

Personal Ensign Field

Miss Singshix (Ire) – Martin Wolfson, Jose Valdivia, 10/1

Rachel Alexandra – Steve Asmussen, Calvin Borel, 2/5

Persistently – Shug McGaughey, Alan Garcia, 20/1

Life At Ten – Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 5/2

Classofsixtythree – Gary Contessa, Javier Castellano 20/1

Personal Ensign Past Performances–Click Life At Ten Ultimate PPS

Larry Collmus Calls Race 7 At Monmouth Park On August 22,2010

I listened to this live. Larry Collmus did a great job, and had some fun with it too. This is certainly one race call you won’t forget.

YouTube Replay NTRAHorseRacing

Debussy Wins The Arlington Million

Paddy O’Prado Wins The Secretariat

Eclair de Lune Wins The Beverly D.

Blind Luck Wins The Alabama

The $300,000 Guaranteed Arlington Million Pick 3

Past Performances Below

The Secretariat – The Secretariat starts this Pick 3 sequence. It looks like Paddy O’Prado could be the lone single on this ticket for many today. I will be using two horses in this race. Paddy O’Prado is on the top of his game right now after sweeping the Colonial Turf Cup (GII) & Virginia Derby (GII) with with impressive moves off the pace.  The other horse I will use is the Irish Bred Wigmore Hall. Wigmore Hall has been solid in all of his races this year in England, and is coming off a sharp win in the Newmarket Nights Champion Stakes at Newmarket on August 6, 2010. He loves the distance and will get Lasix for the first time. Wigmore Hall will get a class test today. The one horse I am not using, and could be a mistake is Working For Hops. He is in solid form as well, and should be the 2nd choice when the gate open. Hopefully Wigmore Hall will be able to handle the soft turf conditions today.

The Beverly D – Rainbow View has been scratched. She would have been one of the major players in here if she had ran. I will use three horses in the Beverly D. Pachattack is shipping in from England to make her USA debut. She has been running very well in ungraded stakes races in England. See tried two Grade III events, but was a non factor. Biased is the other European import in the Beverly D. She has been against slightly better running in France than Pachattack. She ran 5 x3 in the Grad (II) Prix Corrida at Saint-Cloud in France. Biased also beat the boys in France. She offers plenty of value and is in solid form. She has also shown the ability to be an effective runner on soft turf courses. Treat Gently looks to be the one with the best chance to win today. The Juddmonte Farms homebred has really has put it all together in her last two starts. I expect her to stalk and pounce turning for home. The yielding turf course is a concern however. This might be the toughest leg of this Pick 3. Leaving off Ave could be a costly mistake. She won the EBF Ladies Evening Handicap last May in run-a-way on a turf course rated soft. I will find a way to cover if she is the right price.

The Arlington Million – Marsh Side is scratched. Gio Ponti is the morning line favorite and defending Arlington Million Champion looks fit and ready for another big try today. Gio Ponti makes his 3rd start off the layoff and is hands down the class if this field. Nonetheless I am going to use 5 horses in this year’s Arlington Million. Gio Ponti has won over a yielding course and ran 2nd on a course rated good in the Turf Classic (GI) last year to Interpatation at Belmont Park. The turf conditions in the Turf Classic (GI) that day were absolutely horrendous. And that played a major role in him not winning that day. The other American based horse I will use is Jonathan Sheppard’s Just As Well. Just As Well will me making his 5th start of the year. He was 2nd in last year’s Million to Gio Ponti. I expect him to give a solid performance this afternoon. He has been very close to winning a GI in recent years. Just As Well ran 3×6 in the Maker’s Mark Mile (GI) over  yielding turf course at Keeneland April 2009.  Today he will give it another shot. The other three horses I will use are all Euros. Debussy ships in from England. Debussy is Grade II winner who will come into this race making his 4th start of the year and gets Lasix. Tazeez will also come into this race in solid form and ready for a good effort. He ran right behind top rated European horse Twice Over in the Prince of Wales Stakes (GI). And the last Euro in The Arlington Million is Summit Surge.  Summit Surge won the York Stakes (GII) last out on July 24, 2010. He will also be using Lasix for the first time today. Summit Surge races over a yielding course. He finished 5th in the Gladness Stakes in April of 2009. Gio Ponti no doubt will be tough again today, although his last couple of races have been life or death. His last race was more impressive than it looked. He had to overcome dawdling fractions in the Man o’ War to beat Mission Approved. The four others mentioned will certainly help any Pick 3 ticket in the value department.  The biggest question will be how much of a role the turf conditions will factor in today.

ThoroughbredZone’s Arlington Million Pick 3 play

1,4/1,7,9/2,4,6,9,10  For $1 Cost $30

Good Luck!

Turf Course Has Been Upgraded To Good This Afternoon

Arlington Million Day Past Performances

2008 Arlington Million Pick 3 Flashback

Flashback

The great Zenyatta will go for her 18th straight win without a loss in the Clement L. Hirsch (GI) later this afternoon at Del Mar. Some fans are a bit disappointed that she is not running in a more ambitious spot against better horses. To those I say just be grateful this once in a lifetime mare is even running period at age 6.  Zenyatta has proven herself over and over again as to what kind of champion she is. Her connections have done right by her, and will continue to do right by her. I commend them for even bringing her back to race this year. She has nothing to prove to anyone. She is a special horse, and I am thrilled to see her run.  So sit back, relax, and let Zenyatta do her thing. It is a great joy to watch this mare in action.

2010 Clement L. Hirsch Replay YouTube–Zenyatta

The Quality Road show is warmed up and ready for another dazzling performance in the Whitney (GI) at Saratoga this afternoon.  He has been a special thoroughbred from day one when he broke his maiden at first asking in a dazzling effort at Aqueduct in November of 2008.  Today he makes his first start since his near track record setting effort in the Met Mile (GI) back in May.  Once again Quality Road is ready to threaten another track record on a track where he already has broken one. Haynesfield will look to offer him his biggest challenge today, but as good as I think Haynesfield will run today, it will be a very tall task indeed to beat the super fast Quality Road. Blame is running very well and he will be the 2nd choice in the betting. Blame has been rock solid throughout his career, and today he faces his biggest class test. And Musket Man is in there as well. An honest, reliable racehorse who has been a consistent  runner from day one. And how can I forget?  The 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird will give the Whitney a shot. A very daunting task indeed for Mine That Bird just to hit the board today. Quality Road has given every indication today could be a day to remember.

Racing has some issues, but today is day to be grateful to have the opportunity to see these two remarkable athletes in action. And this is what this great sport is all about. Enjoy it.

2010 Whitney Replay YouTube–Blame Nips Quality Road

Lookin at Lucky

Lookin At Lucky

Lookin At Lucky

Mike Pegram, Bob Baffert,Martin Garcia & Janine Edwards

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YouTube Replay

By Stephen Alicknovic

1 Lookin at Lucky – The Preakness Stakes winner and probable post time favorite will be making his first start since winning the Preakness back in May. Bob Baffert’s Point Given and War Emblem both won the Haskell coming in off similar layoffs–both of them last running in the Belmont Stakes. A strong case can be made that Lookin at Lucky is the class of the race.  You can easily put lines through his Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby.  He endured nightmare trips in both of them.  Outside of those two races, Lookin at Lucky has been a consistent winner. Lookin at Lucky has been working strongly in California in preparation for the Haskell, and will come into the Haskell ready to fire his A game. Bob Baffert will be looking for his 4th Haskell win with Lookin at Lucky. Bob Baffert also won the Haskell with Roman Ruler. Lookin at Lucky breaks from the rail, but this is a smaller field than the Kentucky Derby and he should have plenty of time to settle in behind horses. He looms a large threat to win the Haskell with a stalking trip that should never have him to far off the pace.  Look for Martin Garcia to swing him wide around the bend like he did in the Preakness Stakes. No doubt Lookin at Lucky is a big threat for top honors in the Haskell. I expect him to be there late.

2 Afleet Again – Afleet Again ran 2nd to Afleet Express in the Pegasus (GIII) back here on June 19. Afleet Express finished 3rd in the Jim Dandy (GII) on Saturday behind A Little Warm and Miner’s Reserve. He will enter the Haskell making his 4th start off the layoff for trainer Robert Reid.  Joe Bravo will be in the saddle when the gates open. Afleet Again has had the most races of any thoroughbred in the field with 12. His biggest win came in the Withers (GIII) back in April. Afleet Again will stalk, but will need to turn it up several notches in order to challenge for top honors.

3 Ice Box - The late rallying son of Pulpit finished a fast closing 2nd to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby.  Connections skipped the Preakness and decided to run in the Belmont Stakes instead, where he ran poorly as the favorite.  He displaced his palate in the Belmont Stakes.  He enters the Haskell off the layoff for Nick Zito. Ice Box has been working well at Saratoga in preparation for the Haskell.  It’s a safe bet that jockey Jose Lezcano will rate far off the pace in the Haskell and make a strong late rally. He could be compromised depending if there is any type of track bias favoring speed. Pay attention. Nick Zito rarely shows up at Monmouth Park. It will be interesting to see if Nick Zito makes the trip down for this year’s Haskell. It would be a positive sign if he does show up. Ice Box will benefit from a fast pace up front. Jose Lezcano and Ice Box will show up on the scene in the late stages of the Haskell.

4 First Dude - First Dude ran a strong 2nd in the Preakness and 3 weeks later ran a solid 3rd in the Belmont Stakes. There is no doubt how he will run in the Haskell. He will gun right out with his natural speed and take the fight to them. Our Dark Knight will try to keep him company up front early. First Dude has been working very well at Churchill Downs for this. The sharp looking son of Stephen Got Even is another who will be coming in off the layoff. First Dude is a front running threat to go all the way in here. I liked him in the Preakness, and he should offer some value in the Haskell. He is sharp looking colt. A track bias that favors speed will aid his chances.  A strong run is expected, but can he go all the way? He almost did in the Preakness and Belmont. The Haskell is shorter in distance.

5 Our Dark Knight - Our Dark Knight is part of the Robert LaPenta/Nick Zito uncoupled entry.  It looks like the main purpose of Our Dark Knight’s presence in this race is to serve as a front runner and try and keep First Dude busy.  The goal of course being to set up the late rally of Ice Box. Our Dark Knight takes a big jump up in the class department in the Haskell.  In a horse race anything can happen, and if somehow Our Dark Knight winds up alone on the lead, he will be the one that will try to take this group all the way. It’s a tall task nonetheless.

6 Super Saver – The Kentucky Derby Champion makes his first start since his disappointing Preakness Stakes performance. Super Saver has been working lights out for trainer Todd Pletcher. Super Saver has a stalking style of running, that often puts him right on or near the lead. It will be interesting to see how close Calvin Borel puts Super Saver in the Haskell.  It’s no secret where Calvin Borel will try to go–the rail.  One should pay attention to any track bias at Monmouth Park. Sometimes the rail is not the best place to be. Super Saver should be striking distance throughout the Haskell, and attempt to make his winning bid along the rail.  He looks ready to run a good race based on those fast workouts. He will be the probable 2nd choice at post time.

7 Uptowncharlybrown – Uptowncharlybrown had a bit of bad luck in the Belmont Stakes, where he lost a weight pad, and was dq’d.  Connections see fit to bring him back off the layoff in a very tough tough spot. Uptowncharlybrown zipped a fast 5 furlong breeze in 59 seconds over the Belmont training track on July 26.  Rajiv Maragh will have the mount on Uptowncharlybrown.  I expect him to be off the pace a few lengths in the Haskell. Uptowncharlybrown has run some good races so far in his young career, he will need to run the best race of his career in order to win the Haskell.  He will offer value at a price on your tickets if you choose to use.  Alan Seewald, who was Uptowncharlybrown’s original trainer passed away in April.  Alan Seewald was based out of Monmouth Park and there will be plenty rooting for Uptowncharlybrown to make a good account of himself.  He will also be a nice price if you are planning to use. (Scratched)

8 Trappe Shot - Trappe Shot is the upstart horse in this year’s Haskell Invitational. And he is also ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Haskell.  One advantage Trappe Shot may have in this year’s Haskell over some of the others is the fact he is the only horse in the race making his 3rd start in his current form cycle, which means he should be sitting on a solid effort. Afleet Again will be making his 4th start off the layoff. Trappe Shot has never been in a field with the talent level as high as this, but Trappe Shot has never been asked for his best yet. Trappe Shot did defeat a very good horse in Tahitian Warrior at Belmont Park in June. Tahitian Warrior rebounded nicely after that loss with a resounding victory in his next race. Trappe Shot will break from the far outside under Alan Garcia.  Alan Garcia will settle behind the expected pace setters and make a bid turning for home.  He is very talented, and very fast.  He looks like he is ready to make that jump forward and become a GI winner in this year’s Haskell. He will try to fend off Lookin at Lucky & Ice Box late. Another positive is he could be the 3rd choice when the gates open.  And that means he will offer value. (Top Pick)

Haskell Selections 8-1-3-4

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Hopefully the rain holds off for Haskell Day. It’s a huge 14 race card that will offer several Haskell Day staple stakes races—The Matchmaker (GIII), The Oceanport (GIII), The Teddy Drone and The Jersey Derby.  It should be a spectacular day of racing at Monmouth Park.

Quick Notes–Grade I winner Mistical Plan returns off a year layoff in the Regret Stakes. Showers are possible with a high in the 80′s. Hopefully it will not rain much and ruin the day and the turf races. Trappe Shot, Afleet Again & Super Saver have wins on off tracks. Ice Box ran a strong 2nd in the slop in the Kentucky Derby.

The stage is set for a memorable and record breaking day at Monmouth Park. Snap Shots of Haskell day will be posted.

**Gates open at 10 AM and the first race is 12 PM–The Haskell will also be televised live on ABC at from 5 PM – 6 PM EDT — Check Local Listings**

Haskell Invitational – Kiaran McLaughlin Past Performances–Click Trappe Shot Ultimate PPs For Haskell Past Performances

Haskell Selections Over The Past 10 Years

2010 Trappe Shot 2nd

2009 Rachel Alexandra 1st

2008 Big Brown 1st

2007 Hard Spun 2nd

2006 Bluegrass Cat 1st

2005 Park Avenue Ball 3rd

2004 Lion Heart 1st

2003 Peace Rules 1st

2002 War Emblem 1st

2001 Point Given 1st

2000 Captain Steve 2nd

1999 Menifee 1st

A strong field of 8 thoroughbreds has been assembled for the 2010 Haskell Invitational (GI) at Monmouth Park on Sunday. Preakness Stakes winner Lookin at Lucky has been installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite and will break from the rail. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will break from post position 6. The highly talented Trappe Shot will break on the far outside in the field of 8.  Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Ice Box, First Dude & Trappe Shot will all be threats for top honors to win the Haskell. Uptowncharlybrown, Afleet Again & Our Dark Knight will gun for the upset.  This is a solid group, and one of the better fields in recent years to face off in the Haskell.  The stage is set in what could be an absolutely thrilling finish to this year’s Haskell Invitational (GI).

The Haskell Invitational will be televised live on ABC this Sunday at 5:00 PM EST—Check local listings

The 2010 Haskell Invitational Field In Post Position Order

1. Lookin At Lucky - Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 5-2

2. Afleet Again - Robert Reid Jr., Joe Bravo, 12-1

3. Ice Box - Nick Zito, Jose Lezcano, 9-2

4. First Dude - Dale Romans, Kent Desormeaux, 6-1

5. Our Dark Knight - Nick Zito, Elvis Trujillo 15/1

6. Super Saver - Todd Pletcher, Calvin Borel, 3-1

7. Uptowncharlybrown - Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1

8. Trappe Shot - Kiaran McLaughlin, Alan Garcia, 3-1

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Haskell Invitational – Kiaran McLaughlin Past Performances–Click Trappe Shot Ultimate PPs For Haskell Past Performances

Monmouth Park’s Haskell Page

A Complete Haskell Invitational Preview & Close Up Coming

Rachel Alexandra Lady's Secret

Rachel Alexandra Lady's Secret

Rachel Alexandra Lady's Secret

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Strong Haskell Shapes Up–Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, First Dude, Ice Box, Trappe Shot & More

Rachel Alexandra Returns To Race At Monmouth July 24

2009 Horse Of The Year & Haskell Invitational Winner Rachel Alexandra Returns To Monmouth Park On July 24th!

It’s funny how some people like to diminish Zenyatta’s competition, instead of realizing what a big race St. Trinians ran. St. Trinians did just that in the Vanity Handicap, and Zenyatta had to come from far behind to get her.  She really had to make up a ton of ground while going wide to get it done—while giving away 9 pounds to St. Trinians. She was awesome in winning—as usual.

Anybody who thinks lightly of winning 17 consecutive races without a loss, and winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic does not fully understand or appreciate the greatness of this once in a life time mare. It’s plain and simple.

Who did Eclipse beat? He beat them all. He retired undefeated—an accomplishment that will live on forever in the annals of thoroughbred racing history. No one knows for sure if Zenyatta will leave racing undefeated, but we do know she has finished ahead of every single horse she has faced up until now. And that is mighty accomplishment indeed.

Zenyatta has one of the longest strides I have ever seen in a thoroughbred. It’s thrilling to watch her cover the amount of ground she does when she is extended. Does anyone see that when they watch her run? I don’t care who she runs against. She will rally in that final furlong no matter what. She just covers more ground faster because she does things no other horse can do.

Physical handicapping is an important aspect in my evaluation of thoroughbreds—she is without a doubt one of the most physically impressive horses I have ever seen. There are not enough adjectives to describe her. Physically she is a gifted horse who stands out heads and shoulders above the rest—a very unique thoroughbred in many ways. We should be lucky we have been able to witness such and amazing phenomena.

There is only one word to describe Zenyatta. Perfect.

This is a post I made from a thread at Pace Advantage.

There are 5 horses in this race I will use.  The favorites Ice Box, First Dude and Fly Down will be bet.  Can First Dude run that same huge race again three weeks later? He could but the price won’t be anywhere near what he was in the Preakness Stakes.  And can Fly Down bounce back to run another big race in the Belmont after his big Dwyer win?  Another that will be bet, and not offer too much value. Ice Box the late closing 2nd place finisher in the Kentucky Derby should once again show up on the scene late with a late big rally..

5 horses that I will be using are.  Dave in Dixie, Make Music For Me, Interactif, Ice Box and Stately Victor.  I have decided to try and find a nice price in this years Belmont Stakes. The only favorite that I do think has a solid chance to get it done is Ice Box.  He may not win, but should be there late. Statetly Victor is is a bit of a stab.  He has experience and a nice foundation. He could run a nice one. The key with him is he does offer plenty of value. Make Music For Me rallied to Finish 4th in the Kentucky Derby.  This will be his first race on a fast dirt track.  Dave In Dixie has not raced since April 3.  He will be a huge price.  Who knows what could happen at a mile and a half.  At 35/1 I will put him in.  Interactif is the horse I will pick for the upset win.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation. He has been working well, and connections see fit to give him a shot.  He should stalk First Dude. I would have liked to use Drosselmeyer, but I worry about the possibility of  sore feet. He offers value as well.

Spangled Star, Uptowncharlybrown, Game On Dude and Stay Put will all be prices.  And they will all be value.  Can one of these win?  Anything is possible today.  They each have questions.  Of this group I would give Uptowncharlybrown and Game On Dude some thought.

This is a tough race I feel. I am looking for value. If First Dude wired this group, I would not be shocked at all. He ran super last time. And I liked him last time in the exacta.  I will look for value instead here.  Anyway you look at it, it will be tough to run that same race again three weeks later. And I will make a win play on Interactif to upset the Belmont Stakes. And my upset pick to win the Belmont Stakes is Make Music For Me. Good luck to all.  And have fun betting on this big stakes packed Belmont Card.

Snap Shots of Belmont Stakes Day Coming

The last Yankee game I went to was game 6 of the 96 World Series.  They won the World Series that night.  Today was my first Yankee game since that night–14-years-ago.  And it was in the new ball park.  Below are some snap-shots of the New Yankee Stadium.  It’s a nice ball-park–but the old Stadium can never be replaced.

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Quality Road lead most of the way in winning the Met Mile (GI) in 1:33.11. Quality Road showed them how it’s done on the front end–setting fast fractions. He turned for home sitting chilly and dug in to fend off Musket Man to win The Met Mile (GI) at Belmont Park in a smashing performance.  It was thee best in show in town—without a doubt.

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Photos Will Be Back Up Soon

Opening day of the ‘Elite Summer Meet’ at Monmouth Park got off to a block-buster start.  A large crowd of 17,903 showed up–an increase of 74% over last year.  Total handle for the day was a whopping $9,357,444–that figure is more than double what the total handle was last year on opening day.  If opening day is any indication of what the rest of Monmouth Park’s ‘Elite Summer Meet’ has in store, things might finally be looking up for the future of New Jersey thoroughbred racing.  People I spoke to were thrilled with the new concept of a shorter meet with better quality thoroughbred racing.  There was a buzz all day at Monmouth Park.  People were in a great mood, and track officials were out and about with smiles on their faces from the start of the day until the end of the day.  All in all it was a great day of racing at the shore.  Monmouth Park will most certainly be the place to be this summer for horseman and fans alike.  Below are some snap shots I took on opening day at Monmouth Park.

Early Crowd

Paddock Area Fills Up

Early Enthusiasm

Monmouth Park Fountain

8-Year-Old Fort Seattle

Precious Package Wins--Gomez Up

Precious Package & Garrett Gomez

John Velasquez

9-Year-Old Cuba

Just A Coincidence

Just A Coincidence Wins

1st Time Starter Hung Jury

Hung Jury

Nicky Red Riderless

Go Go Shoot

Go Go Shoot

Mr. Fantasy

Mr. Fantasy

Go Go Shoot & Mr. Fantasy

Go Go Shoot

Mr. Fantasy

Congressional Page Beats Mr. Fantasy

Bob Kulina Interviewed By Mike Curci

Jadal Loose

Crowded

Newest Monmouth Park Banner

These Two Had A Tough Day

Lookin Good

Later In The Day

Later In Day

Kiss the Kid

Kiss The Kid Being A Handful As Usual

Kiss the Kid

Staying On

Get Stormy Wins The Elkwood

Get Stormy

John Heims Being Interviewed By NJ Channel 12

John Heims Being Interviewed By NJ 12

Monmouth Park is ready to kick off the 2010 meet with a big bang on Saturday May 22.  With $50 million in purse money ready to be spread over a 50-day period—Monmouth Park will be the place to be for many this summer.  A big 13-race card is in store for opening day at Monmouth Park.  I will be there and I will try to give some updates on Twitter as the day goes on.  A recap of the big day will be posted—along with many pictures.  Monmouth Park has always been my summer home away from home.  It’s like Christmas Day in May!

Below are some links that will help you get ready for Monmouth Park’s Elite Summer Meet. 

Monmouth Park Blog

Handicapping Contest—Survival At The Shore 

Horseraceinsider—Free Grandstand Admission Opening Day

Andy Beyer—Monmouth Hopes For Horse Industry Revival

Horseraceinsider—148 Horses Entered For Opener

NJ Newsroom—Will Monmouth Park’s New Push Raise Profile?

Asbury Park Press—Revamped Meet Creates Excitement At Track

Asbury Park Press—Monmouth Park Ready To Open Saturday

Asbury Park Press—Will Monmouth Park’s Big Gamble Pay Off?

Asbury Park Press—Public Will Decide Race Track’s Fate

NJ.COM—Monmouth Park Unveils Details Of  ‘Million Dollar Meet’

ESPN—Garrett Gomez Lookin Forward To Monmouth Meet

USA Today—Record Purses On Tap For Monmouth Park

Preakness Stakes Chart **(Click)**

Preakness Stakes Preview

The Preakness Stakes has been the most formful race of the Triple Crown Series to handicap in recent years.  The last 20 Preakness Stakes have seen 17 winners who have emerged from the Kentucky Derby.  The three horses who went on to win the Preakness who did not compete in the Kentucky Derby over that time period were Red Bullet, Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra. The Preakness will have five horses that ran in this year’s Kentucky Derby—Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O’Prado, Dublin and Jackson Bend.

Super Saver will be gunning to win the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown when he enters the starting gate in the Preakness Stakes.  The Kentucky Derby Champion will be making his 4th start in his current form cycle, and everything points to another strong effort in the Preakness Stakes.  Super Saver has also worked since his Kentucky Derby win—a 3 furlong breeze in 36 on May 10.  He is fit and ready—there is a lot to like.

Lookin At Lucky has been dogged by bad luck  in his last two starts.  In the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby he endured nightmare trips.  In an attempt to change Lookin At Lucky’s luck, or lack there of, trainer Bob Baffert decided to make a jockey change.  Martin Garcia will replace Garrett Gomez in the saddle for the Preakness Stakes.  The 2-year-old champion from 2009 has yet to have a chance to uncork a solid rally with out getting into any trouble in the process. If Lookin At Lucky gets a clean trip, there is nothing to indicate he can’t show up on the scene with a big effort.  In both the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby he was able to re-rally and finish well.  He is the most likely horse to give Super Saver a legitimate run for the money. In what could be a sign that Lookin At Lucky’s bad luck is already changing, he drew post-position #7—or in this case it might be the lucky #7.

The rest of the field will be looking to spring the upset.  The other three horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby are Paddy O’Prado, Dublin and Jackson Bend.

Paddy O’Prado came from well back in the Derby to finish with a rush to get 3rd.  Oddly enough the Preakness Stakes will be his first career start on a fast dry track.  The Preakness looks like the pace will not be nearly as quick as it was at Churchill Downs.  Expect Paddy O’Prado to be closer in the Preakness.  The only question is whether he will be able to duplicate his strong run in the Kentucky Derby.

Dublin ran a decent race in the Kentucky Derby. He made a bold move turning for home only to run into to traffic issues.  I am still not sure is Dublin wants to run this far.  Garrett Gomez replaces Terry Thompson in the saddle for the Preakness.  D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness Stakes five times.

Jackson Bend is coming into the Preakness off a 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.  He certainly did not have the best of trips. Jackson Bend might be at his best under a mile.  The mile-and-three-sixteenths looks to be out of his range. He had a fantastic 4 furlong breeze in 46 on May 10.  Jackson Bend has good tactical speed and could be one of the horses that decides to go to the lead.

The new shooters make up the rest of the field.  The most intriguing new shooter of the group is Schoolyard Dreams—who finished just a nip ahaead of Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby. That was back in March and Super Saver has improved two-fold since that race.  Schoolyard Dreams will be coming into the Preakness off a pair of very sharp 5 furlong breezes.  Trainer Derek Ryan who campaigned Musket Man last year to back-to-back 3rd place finishes in the the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes should not be totally ignored.

Akenite is the other Todd Pletcher trainee to run in the Preakness Stakes.  He is coming in off a good 2nd place finish in the Derby Trial to Hurricane Ike.  The added distance should help his cause, and he will be making his 3rd start off the layoff—two positives.  He would need to take a large step forward to threaten for top honors.

Pleasant Prince has been working lights out for trainer Michael Maker.  Pleasant Prince came up a nose hair short of defeating Ice Box in the Florida Derby.  A late sustained rally is expected from him in the Preakness.  A slow pace could hinder his chances however.

Yawanna Twist, Northern Giant, Caracortado and First Dude round the field for the 135th Preakness Stakes.  Yawanna Twist is a quick New York Bred who will be trying a distance that is probably a bit too far for him, but do not be stunned if Yawanna Twist decides to take the fight to them and go right to the lead in a race where there is no clear cut speed horse.  Caracortado might have run his best races at 2–makes 4th start off the layoff, going this far might be out of his range. He gets the benefit of the doubt however.  He did get a bad trip in the Santa Anita.  He has some speed and he could very well be another one that will possibly try to take over on the front end. He comes in working well for this.  First Dude comes into the Preakness with a pair of  sharp 5 furlong breezes–a winner at a mile-and-eighth and ran second to Dwyer winner Fly Down twice.

How to bet the Preakness Stakes

I am going to key the top two choices—Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky in the 1st and 2nd slot and wheel the rest of the field for 3rd for a $1—a $20 investment. If I see a vulnerable favorite—I always try to beat them, but these two look solid. Usually I do not make this bet, but as mentioned above the Preakness has been a formful race in recent years.  The hope is one of the longer shots can get up for 3rd. You certainly won’t get rich with this bet, but it’s a decent priced bet and you will certainly get in on the action.  If all goes well the chance to make a profit does exist.  Superfectas with the same strategy for 3rd & 4th place is also an option.

Ticket 7,8/7,8/All $1 Trifecta $20

If you are not found of either Super Saver or Lookin At Lucky—take a shot against both of them.  Schoolyard Dreams might have the best chance of the new shooters to threaten for the upset win. The rest of the field will offer good prices.  Paddy O’Prado in all likely hood will not go off as high as some of the horses already mentioned.

Another bet that might be a good idea instead of the trifecta is a 5 horse exacta box. If you are not crazy about Lookin At Lucky– you can box 5 horses who have run well or won at a mile-and-an-eighth—Super Saver, Paddy O’Prado, Pleasant Prince and First Dude. Schoolyard Dreams sports two great works for this. You get the post time favorite in there, but the four others should offer value.

Ticket 2,3,8,10,11 $1 Exacta Box $20

Super Saver has a great chance to have a shot at running for the Triple Crown in three weeks at Belmont Park, but leave no doubt Lookin At Lucky will do everything he can to derail that bid—and is capable with a top effort—if luck finally decides to go his way.  A thrilling stretch battle with Super Saver could be in the works.  Good luck!

2010 Kentucky Derby 136 Chart *Click*

 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby Pick and Preview

4/30/10 — Updated May 1, 15:23

It’s Kentucky Derby 136.  And boy this one could be a real puzzler at post time.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to make matters even more complicated.  On paper this field looks even–especially from a speed figure stand point.  Trying to determine who will run well on an off-track might be guess work for those horses trying it for the first time.  These are the horses that have won on an off-track. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk–twice. Stately Victor and Mission Impaziple have run 2nd on an off-track. Noble’s Promise has a huge Tomlinson Speed figure of 463.

ThoroughbredZone’s pick to win Kentucky Derby 136 is Sidney’s Candy.  Sidney’s Candy was an impressive winner in the San Vicente.  He rattled off fast fractions and kept it going all the way to the wire and past it.  He showed the ability to go fast early and keep it going until the end.  He has galloped out strongly in all three of his prep races this year.  The biggest key for Sidney’s Candy will be if he can rate.  He has a nice relaxing running style and has never looked pressured or too much on the bit in the early stages of any of his prep races.  I think he does have the ability to rate.  In the Santa Anita Derby he showed another gear in the stretch and exploded to draw off and win by 4 1/2 lengths.  It was an impressive turn of foot. Sidney’s Candy come home times have been solid, and that makes him a prime contender if he can duplicate those efforts. He has shown the ability to run fast through all stages of the race.  He also has another slight advantage–he is a January foal, which gives him a slight edge in the maturation department over others.  The two biggest hurdles in his way will be post position #20, and an off-track. He has drilled well on an off-track, but still he has never raced on one. If he handles the off going, there is no reason to think he can’t overcome his poor post.  Some reports say his last work was average, and an old quarter crack could be bothering him. At this point we will stick with him.  I was able to lock in a $20 win bet in Pool 3 on him at 22/1…

Here is the rest of the field in post position order with comments

1) Lookin at Lucky — He is Unlucky.  The probable post time favorite will break from post position 1–one of the poorest spots to break from in the Kentucky Derby.  Garrett Gomez will have to decide early on what he wants to do–gun him out or take back. Lookin at Lucky has a solid foundation and has been working well.  He will come into the Kentucky Derby making his third start off his current form cycle.  He is battle tested and already proved he can handle dirt.  If he can overcome his poor post position, he should be there late.  He still could be sitting on his best race yet.  He will be short odds and breaking from the rail, is he worth a win bet?  Not sure. He is still dangerous. Zactas /Tris   (Ran 6h) Horrible Trip

2) Ice Box — The Florida Derby winner came from way out of it that day to win. Ice Box should be relatively far off the pace and make one big sustained rally late.  Before the Florida Derby he had shown the ability to stalk. He came home fast in the Florida Derby, and a duplication of that effort makes him a player in this Kentucky Derby. The faster they go up front, the better his chances are.  He has been working well in the slop.  He should be coming late.  He should be fine with distance.  Nick Zito feels good about it. Jose Lezcano is a strong finisher. Zactas /Tris (Ran 2nd)

 3) Noble’s Promise — Noble’s Promise ran right behind Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions.  If you like Lookin at Lucky, you should like Noble’s Promise, who will a much bigger price. He has a huge Tomlinson Wet figure of 463—however he will be making his first start on an off-track. He has a nice stalking style of running that should have him not too far off the pace.  He did not get the best post position.  He will have to avoid possible traffic issues. Noble’s Promise has been able to recover quickly from his rocky Arkansas Derby trip.  He looms a threat if he fires.  Another possible obstacle could be his ability to get a mile and a quarter. Zactas /Tris (Ran 5th) Led at the Top

 4) Super Saver — Super Saver is one of many horses that will be coming into the Kentucky Derby making his 3^rd start in his current form cycle.  He finished 2^nd to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby.  He drifted a bit in the late stages of the Arkansas Derby, but a move forward is expected in the Kentucky Derby. Super Saver was a run-a-away winner at Churchill Downs on a fast track and he was a run-a-away winner on a sloppy track at Belmont Park. He has one published work out since the Arkansas Derby. Expect him to be a few lengths off the pace early. And we know where Calvin likes to go.  WinStars best chance for the roses. Super Saver has superb breeding for this as well. He could very well be Todd Pletchers best chance to win the roses, along with Devil May Care. Zactas / Tris–saver win bet (Winner)

5) Line of David — The front running winner of the Arkansas Derby will try to do it again, but there should be plenty of speed to keep him company. Line of David set fast fractions in the Arkansas Derby, but slowed down coming home. He was able to hold off Super Saver and Dublin. He will have to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. He faces a tough task, but a pace factor for sure. Did the Arkansas Derby take too much out of him?

6) Stately Victor — Stately Victor has raced three times at a mile and eighth and won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He should be fine in getting a distance, his ability to run on a dirt track is in question, but all indications are we are looking at a sloppy track. He closed strongly in the Blue Grass and should be off the pace again.  He had a sharp 5 furlong workout on April 23.  He looks to be coming into his own at the right time. He will offer big odds.  Zactas /Tris    (Ran 8th)

7) American Lion — American Lion is the other WinStar entry in the race. American Lion won the Illinois Derby in his first try on dirt, after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces. He is another horse that has a speed figure that fits right in with the top contenders in the race.  If he can rate instead of going right up on the lead, it could very well benefit him.  At this point it looks like he could be a victim of a fast pace.

8 ) Dean’s Kitten — Dean’s Kitten has the most experience in this Kentucky Derby field, having been in 11 races. He has one career start on a dirt track and it was on an off-track.  He did not run well there. Dean’s Kitten has been working well in the mornings. Dean’s Kitten has done almost all his running on turf.  He should be well off the pace and mount a bid.  Is he fast enough to make up the ground to be a threat.  Others rate higher at this point. He has been working well, and is bred to get a distance, an off track makes him interesting. Should go off a huge price. Zactas /Tris  (Ran 14th)

  9) Make Music for Me — Make Music for Me will be making his first career start on a dirt/off surface in the Kentucky Derby.  During this spring of Kentucky Derby preps, horses trying dirt for the first time have run very well. Line of David, American Lion, Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise showed the could handle the dirt. Make Music for Me also ran right behind Lookin at Lucky in Delmar Futurity and the Best Pal Stakes in California last year. He could be the biggest price on the board when the gates open.  He also drilled a very sharp 4 furlong work on April 19 at Keeneland. Carson City on the bottom gives him nice off track breeding, but not of much help in the distance department.   Some will toss, I will use.  He gets the benefit of the doubt Zactas /Tris –Saver Win Play   (Ran 4th)

10) Paddy O’Prado — Paddy O’Prado will make his second start on a dirt track, and first start on an off track. He has been working well in the slop. Paddy O’Prado has a versatile style of running.  He could either stalk or drop further back.  He has raced at a mile and an eighth three times which is a plus.  In his first career start he raced over sloppy track at Churchill Downs–ran poorly.  Considering it was his first start, that race will be tossed. Zipped a fast 5 furlong work in 58 on April 23.  He should be good in the distance department. He will be another at a huge price big price. Zactas /Tris    (Ran 3rd)

  11) Devil May Care — The filly Devil May Care will enter the Kentucky Derby off a sharp win in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park. She stopped the clock in just a nip over 1:49–faster then Eskendereya and Ice Box–however take into consideration of how the track was playing–either way she ran a super race.  She was also a run-a-awy winner over a sloppy track at Saratoga–other plus, and has a nice stalking style of running that should have her not too far off the pace.  She is one of three horses in the Derby to record a Beyer Speed figure of 100–the other two are Sidney’s Candy and Jackson Bend. Based on that, it makes her a candidate to possibly bag top honors.  Connections passed the Kentucky Oaks for the this spot.  She should be respected.  Zactas /Tris -Saver Win (Ran 10th)

12) Conveyance — Speedy Conveyance will take it right to them out of the gate. Conveyance will try to get a clear lead, and could very well do it.  He has been working fast and looks ready to fire. He could also get pressed by some of the other speed horses.  It would be no shock if he turns for home with the lead.  If he were able to relax on the lead, his chances would improve even more.  He will go as far as he can go on the lead.  He faces distance limitations. He has been working lights out.  He is fast and does scare me.  Tough to not use, but a mile and quarter under possible pressure looks tough.

13) Jackson Bend — Jackson Bend is coming off back-to-back 2^nd place finishes to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He is a very consistent horse.  He earned a 100 beyer speed figure as a 2-year-old.  Distance will be his biggest obstacle in the Kentucky Derby. Should be not to far off the pace. The possibility of him going to lead exists as well, aiding the chances of Ice Box. The final two furlongs look daunting.  It looks like distance will be an issue.

14) Mission Impaziple — Upset winner of the Louisiana Derby has been working well in the slop. He will only be making his 6^th lifetime start and faces his toughest task to date.  He should go off at a square price. Ran a solid 2^nd on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park.  He is a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He is eligible to improve.  Based on the fact he has run well on an off-track and will be big odds, finding a spot for him somewhere might a good idea. He is a bit of a guess in here for me. Zactas /Tris (Ran 9th)

 15) Discreetly Mine — The speedy Discreetly Mine should be part of the early pace.  He broke his maiden over a track rated good at Saratoga, crushing a field 11 others in which Super Saver was ran 2^nd. He has raced on a sloppy track at Saratoga, where he bobbled out of the gate and finished a troubled 4th.  He was unable to get the lead in the Louisiana Derby and had to settle for a 4th place finish.  How far he can go in the Derby with expected pressure is a tough question answer. He zipped a fast 5 furlongs over a sloppy track in 1:00 on April 24.

16) Awesome Act — The late rallying son of Awesome Again will try to uncork that late kick in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.  He will need an honest pace.  Breeding suggest he should be fine with an off track—has never been on one. He could find traffic problems weaving his way through the crowd of horses.  A fast pace should will certainly aid his chances.  He also lost a shoe in the Wood Memorial.  He has room to improve off that race.  Depending on how low his odd are however might determine whether he offers enough value.  He is a closer–but will he get there?  An in the money finish is not out of the question, but still have doubts if he is fast enough to win this race.

17) Dublin — The hard knocking Dublin comes into the Kentucky Derby after three straight Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. He had every chance to pass Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, but was unable to do so. The come home time was not great, but that race served as a solid prep for him. D.Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby.  He should get a good stalking trip and a move forward off the Arkansas Derby is in the cards. Depending on how you feel about this horse, he could either be used or tossed, as his ability to get a mile and a quarter might be in question.  One of his recent works were not great, and he might not be at his best on a sloppy track.  D. Wayne Lukas is a Derby legend. (Never mentioned Dublin In Preview as a user–Ran 7th)

18) Backtalk — Backtalk is a proven commodity on an off-track. The son of Smarty Jones sports two wins over the Churchill Downs surface, and he also sports two wins on an off-track.  He faces a stiff class test in the Kentucky Derby. He should go off at a huge price, possibly 50/1 or higher.  He does come a little short in the speed figure department, however he will get the benefit of the doubt based on the first sentence. I have to admit  I am a bit biased–Smarty Jones is my favorite.  He will go off at whopper odds.

 19) Homeboykris — Dick Dutrow is back, but no Big Brown this time. Homeboykris will be one of the biggest prices on the board when the gates open.  He comes in off a long layoff—a solid angle for Dick Dutrow. He should get a stalking trip. Distance is his biggest obstacle.  If were able to pull this off, it would be one of thee biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.  He is working out very well for this and Dutrow and Dominguez make for a tough team.  He might be out there on the pace for awhile.  It just looks too tough at this point.  

 20) Sidney’s Candy — (Top Pick) The speedy Sidney’s Candy will break from post 20.  He will have to come over  from post position 20 and try to get a good position early. He has the speed to do it.  It looks like no matter what he will lose some ground going into the first turn.  How wide is the question?  He went through his prep season in perfect order winning all three of his prep races, and capped it with a run-a-way win in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can show the ability to rate, it would benefit him immensely, and he seems to be a horse that can, there is no reason not to think he can’t rate.  Another explosive late kick in the stretch will make it tough for anyone to run him down. He galloped out strongly in each one of his prep races this spring.  He should have no problem staying on for a mile and a quarter.  An off track could be his biggest obstacle, and is a mild concern. He looks to be the most talented horse of this group.  He closed at 22/1 in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future bet.  He will be closer to 5/1 tomorrow. (Top Choice) (Ran 17th-Stopped)

Handicapping Tid Bits

Thee Kentucky Derby Legends Trainers are back in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Bullet Bob Baffert, Nick Zito–both with two horses each and 5 Kentucky Derby Trophies between them, and D. Wayne Lukas is back with Dublin–Looking for his 5th trip to the Winner’s Circle in The Kentucky Derby.  Between the three–9 Kentucky Derby Winners.  Todd Pletcher will look to get his first Kentucky Derby winner.

***Todd Pletcher did it–Finally gets his 1st Kentucky Derby winner in Super Saver!!***

How to Bet

How to bet the Kentucky Derby.  There are several approaches one can take.  If you like a horse, you could either bet that horse to win, or depending on how low the odds may be on a horse you like, you could key them in exactas and trifectas, or do both–Churchill Downs will offer a 50 cent trifecta. The 50 cent trifecta will give one an opportunity to use more horses for half the price. Another economical bet is a 5 horse exacta box for a dollar–which will cost you a total of $20 for the wager and you will have 5 horses.  You can also bet more than one horse to win, that is if the odds are worth it. You can also take a crack at a long shot with a saver bet.  And if he or she scores, you will have something on them.  The field does looks even from a speed figure perspective, and adding an off-track could make this anyone’s race possibly if certain scenarios develop.

No matter how much one caps a race, it does not mean one will cash a ticket.  One of the keys on Kentucky Derby day is to also let go and have a little fun with it.  This is not something I preach, but taking a shot with some numbers is not a bad idea on Derby day.  Everyone loves the Kentucky Derby and it’s great sporting event.  Make your main bets, and also make some fun bets–birthdays, trainer combos, horses names and so on.  You just never know what can happen–especially on a track that could turn out to be a swamp.  A simple $1 exacta box is $2 and they have 50 cent trifectas.  No matter what your bank roll may be, relax, make some wagers, and most importantly enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports.  No matter what happens, it promises to be a thriller.  Good luck to all!

4/30/10

It’s Kentucky Derby 136.  And boy this one could be a real puzzler at post time.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to make matters even more complicated.  On paper this field looks even–especially from a speed figure stand point.  Trying to determine who will run well on an off-track might be guess work for those horses trying it for the first time.  These are the horses that have won on an off-track. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk–twice. Stately Victor and Mission Impaziple have run 2nd on an off-track. Noble’s Promise has a huge Tomlinson Speed figure of 463.

ThoroughbredZone’s pick to win Kentucky Derby 136 is Sidney’s Candy.  Sidney’s Candy was an impressive winner in the San Vicente.  He rattled off fast fractions and kept it going all the way to the wire and past it.  He showed the ability to go fast early and keep it going until the end.  He has galloped out strongly in all three of his prep races this year.  The biggest key for Sidney’s Candy will be if he can rate.  He has a nice relaxing running style and has never looked pressured or too much on the bit in the early stages of any of his prep races.  I think he does have the ability to rate.  In the Santa Anita Derby he showed another gear in the stretch and exploded to draw off and win by 4 1/2 lengths.  It was an impressive turn of foot. Sidney’s Candy come home times have been solid, and that makes him a prime contender if he can duplicate those efforts. He has shown the ability to run fast through all stages of the race.  He also has another slight advantage–he is a January foal, which gives him a slight edge in the maturation department over others.  The two biggest hurdles in his way will be post position #20, and an off-track. He has drilled well on an off-track, but still he has never raced on one.  If he handles the off going, there is no reason to think he can’t overcome his poor post.  Some reports say his last work was average, and an old quarter crack could be bothering him. At this point we will stick with him.  I was able to lock in a $20 win bet in Pool 3 on him at 22/1…

Here is the rest of the field in post position order with comments

1) Lookin at Lucky — He is Unlucky.  The probable post time favorite will break from post position 1–one of the poorest spots to break from in the Kentucky Derby.  Garrett Gomez will have to decide early on what he wants to do–gun him out or take back. Lookin at Lucky has a solid foundation and has been working well.  He will come into the Kentucky Derby making his third start off his current form cycle.  He is battle tested and already proved he can handle dirt.  If he can overcome his poor post position, he should be there late.  He still could be sitting on his best race yet.  He will be short odds and breaking from the rail, is he worth a win bet?  Not sure.  He is still dangerous. Zactas /Tris (Ran 6h) Horrible Trip

2) Ice Box — The Florida Derby winner came from way out of it that day to win. Ice Box should be relatively far off the pace and make one big sustained rally late.  Before the Florida Derby he had shown the ability to stalk. He came home fast in the Florida Derby, and a duplication of that effort makes him a player in this Kentucky Derby. The faster they go up front, the better his chances are.  He has been working well in the slop.  He should be coming late.  He should be fine with distance.  Nick Zito feels good about it. Jose Lezcano is a strong finisher. Zactas /Tris (Ran 2nd)

3) Noble’s Promise — Noble’s Promise ran right behind Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions.  If you like Lookin at Lucky, you should like Noble’s Promise, who will a much bigger price. He has a huge Tomlinson Wet figure of 463—however he will be making his first start on an off-track. He has a nice stalking style of running that should have him not too far off the pace.  He did not get the best post position.  He will have to avoid possible traffic issues. Noble’s Promise has been able to recover quickly from his rocky Arkansas Derby trip.  He looms a threat if he fires.  Another possible obstacle could be his ability to get a mile and a quarter. Zactas /Tris (Ran 5th) Led at the Top

4) Super Saver — Super Saver is one of many horses that will be coming into the Kentucky Derby making his 3^rd start in his current form cycle.  He finished 2^nd to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby.  He drifted a bit in the late stages of the Arkansas Derby, but a move forward is expected in the Kentucky Derby. Super Saver was a run-a-away winner at Churchill Downs on a fast track and he was a run-a-away winner on a sloppy track at Belmont Park.  He has one published work out since the Arkansas Derby. Expect him to be a few lengths off the pace early. And we know where Calvin like to go.  WinStars best chance for the roses. Super Saver has superb breeding for this as well.  He could very well be Todd Pletchers best chance to win the roses, along with Devil May Care. Zactas / Tris–saver win bet  **(Winner)

5) Line of David — The front running winner of the Arkansas Derby will try to do it again, but there should be plenty of speed to keep him company. Line of David set fast fractions in the Arkansas Derby, but slowed down coming home. He was able to hold off Super Saver and Dublin. He will have to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. He faces a tough task, but a pace factor for sure. Did the Arkansas Derby take too much out of him?

6) Stately Victor — Stately Victor has raced three times at a mile and eighth and won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He should be fine in getting a distance, his ability to run on a dirt track is in question, but all indications are we are looking at a sloppy track. He closed strongly in the Blue Grass and should be off the pace again.  He had a sharp 5 furlong workout on April 23.  He looks to be coming into his own at the right time. He will offer big odds.  Zactas /Tris (Ran 8th)

7) American Lion — American Lion is the other WinStar entry in the race. American Lion won the Illinois Derby in his first try on dirt, after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces. He is another horse that has a speed figure that fits right in with the top contenders in the race.  If he can rate instead of going right up on the lead, it could very well benefit him.  At this point it looks like he could be a victim of a fast pace.

8 ) Dean’s Kitten — Dean’s Kitten has the most experience in this Kentucky Derby field, having been in 11 races. He has one career start on a dirt track and it was on an off-track.  He did not run well there. Dean’s Kitten has been working well in the mornings. Dean’s Kitten has done almost all his running on turf.  He should be well off the pace and mount a bid.  Is he fast enough to make up the ground to be a threat.  Others rate higher at this point. He has been working well, and is bred to get a distance, an off track makes him interesting. Should go off a huge price. Zactas /Tris (Ran 14th)

9) Make Music for Me — Make Music for Me will be making his first career start on a dirt/off surface in the Kentucky Derby.  During this spring of Kentucky Derby preps, horses trying dirt for the first time have run very well. Line of David, American Lion, Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise showed the could handle the dirt. Make Music for Me also ran right behind Lookin at Lucky in Delmar Futurity and the Best Pal Stakes in California last year. He could be the biggest price on the board when the gates open.  He also drilled a very sharp 4 furlong work on April 19 at Keeneland. Carson City on the bottom gives him nice off track breeding, but not of much help in the distance department.   Some will toss, I will use.  He gets the benefit of the doubt Zactas /Tris –Saver Win Play (Ran 4th)

10) Paddy O’Prado — Paddy O’Prado will make his second start on a dirt track, and first start on an off track. He has been working well in the slop. Paddy O’Prado has a versatile style of running.  He could either stalk or drop further back.  He has raced at a mile and an eighth three times which is a plus.  In his first career start he raced over sloppy track at Churchill Downs–ran poorly.  Considering it was his first start, that race will be tossed.  Zipped a fast 5 furlong work in 58 on April 23.  He should be good in the distance department. He will be another at a huge price big price. Zactas /Tris (Ran 3rd)

11) Devil May Care — The filly Devil May Care will enter the Kentucky Derby off a sharp win in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park. She stopped the clock in just a nip over 1:49–faster then Eskendereya and Ice Box–however take into consideration of how the track was playing–either way she ran a super race.  She was also a run-a-awy winner over a sloppy track at Saratoga–other plus, and has a nice stalking style of running that should have her not too far off the pace.  She is one of three horses in the Derby to record a Beyer Speed figure of 100–the other two are Sidney’s Candy and Jackson Bend. Based on that, it makes her a candidate to possibly bag top honors.  Connections passed the Kentucky Oaks for the this spot.  She should be respected.  Zactas /Tris -Saver Win (Ran 10th)

12) Conveyance — Speedy Conveyance will take it right to them out of the gate. Conveyance will try to get a clear lead, and could very well do it.  He has been working fast and looks ready to fire. He could also get pressed by some of the other speed horses.  It would be no shock if he turns for home with the lead.  If he were able to relax on the lead, his chances would improve even more.  He will go as far as he can go on the lead.  He faces distance limitations. He has been working lights out.  He is fast and does scare me.  Tough to not use, but a mile and quarter under possible pressure looks tough.

13) Jackson Bend — Jackson Bend is coming off back-to-back 2^nd place finishes to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He is a very consistent horse.  He earned a 100 beyer speed figure as a 2-year-old.  Distance will be his biggest obstacle in the Kentucky Derby. Should be not to far off the pace. The possibility of him going to lead exists as well, aiding the chances of Ice Box. The final two furlongs look daunting.  It looks like distance will be an issue.

14) Mission Impaziple — Upset winner of the Louisiana Derby has been working well in the slop. He will only be making his 6^th lifetime start and faces his toughest task to date.  He should go off at a square price. Ran a solid 2^nd on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park.  He is a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He is eligible to improve.  Based on the fact he has run well on an off-track and will be big odds, finding a spot for him somewhere might a good idea. He is a bit of a guess in here for me. Zactas /Tris (Ran 9th)

15) Discreetly Mine — The speedy Discreetly Mine should be part of the early pace.  He broke his maiden over a track rated good at Saratoga, crushing a field 11 others in which Super Saver was ran 2^nd. He has raced on a sloppy track at Saratoga, where he bobbled out of the gate and finished a troubled 4th.  He was unable to get the lead in the Louisiana Derby and had to settle for a 4th place finish.  How far he can go in the Derby with expected pressure is a tough question answer. He zipped a fast 5 furlongs over a sloppy track in 1:00 on April 24.

16) Awesome Act — The late rallying son of Awesome Again will try to uncork that late kick in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.  He will need an honest pace.  Breeding suggest he should be fine with an off track—has never been on one. He could find traffic problems weaving his way through the crowd of horses.  A fast pace should will certainly aid his chances.  He also lost a shoe in the Wood Memorial.  He has room to improve off that race.  Depending on how low his odd are however might determine whether he offers enough value.  He is a closer–but will he get there?  An in the money finish is not out of the question, but still have doubts if he is fast enough to win this race.

17) Dublin — The hard knocking Dublin comes into the Kentucky Derby after three straight Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. He had every chance to pass Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, but was unable to do so. The come home time was not great, but that race served as a solid prep for him. D.Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby.  He should get a good stalking trip and a move forward off the Arkansas Derby is in the cards. Depending on how you feel about this horse, he could either be used or tossed, as his ability to get a mile and a quarter might be in question.  One of his recent works were not great, and he might not be at his best on a sloppy track.  D. Wayne Lukas is a Derby legend. (Never mentioned Dublin In Preview as a user–Ran 7th)

18) Backtalk — Backtalk is a proven commodity on an off-track. The son of Smarty Jones sports two wins over the Churchill Downs surface, and he also sports two wins on an off-track.  He faces a stiff class test in the Kentucky Derby. He should go off at a huge price, possibly 50/1 or higher.  He does come a little short in the speed figure department, however he will get the benefit of the doubt based on the first sentence. I have to admit  I am a bit biased–Smarty Jones is my favorite.  He will go off at whopper odds.

19) Homeboykris — Dick Dutrow is back, but no Big Brown this time. Homeboykris will be one of the biggest prices on the board when the gates open.  He comes in off a long layoff—a solid angle for Dick Dutrow. He should get a stalking trip. Distance is his biggest obstacle.  If were able to pull this off, it would be one of thee biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.  He is working out very well for this and Dutrow and Dominguez make for a tough team.  He might be out there on the pace for awhile.  It just looks too tough at this point.

20) Sidney’s Candy — (Top Pick) The speedy Sidney’s Candy will break from post 20.  He will have to come over  from post position 20 and try to get a good position early. He has the speed to do it.  It looks like no matter what he will lose some ground going into the first turn.  How wide is the question?  He went through his prep season in perfect order winning all three of his prep races, and capped it with a run-a-way win in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can show the ability to rate, it would benefit him immensely, and he seems to be a horse that can, there is no reason not to think he can’t rate.  Another explosive late kick in the stretch will make it tough for anyone to run him down. He galloped out strongly in each one of his prep races this spring.  He should have no problem staying on for a mile and a quarter.  An off track could be his biggest obstacle, and is a mild concern. He looks to be the most talented horse of this group.  He closed at 22/1 in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future bet.  He will be closer to 5/1 tomorrow. (Top Choice) (Ran 17th-Stopped)

Handicapping Tid Bits

Thee Kentucky Derby Legends Trainers are back in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Bullet Bob Baffert, Nick Zito–both with two horses each and 5 Kentucky Derby Trophies between them, and D. Wayne Lukas is back with Dublin–Looking for his 5th trip to the Winner’s Circle in The Kentucky Derby.  Between the three–9 Kentucky Derby Winners.  Todd Pletcher will look to get his first Kentucky Derby winner.

How to Bet

How to bet the Kentucky Derby.  There are several approaches one can take.  If you like a horse, you could either bet that horse to win, or depending on how low the odds may be on a horse you like, you could key them in exactas and trifectas, or do both–Churchill Downs will offer a 50 cent trifecta. The 50 cent trifecta will give one an opportunity to use more horses for half the price. Another economical bet is a 5 horse exacta box for a dollar–which will cost you a total of $20 for the wager and you will have 5 horses.  You can also bet more than one horse to win, that is if the odds are worth it. You can also take a crack at a long shot with a saver bet.  And if he or she scores, you will have something on them.  The field does looks even from a speed figure perspective, and adding an off-track could make this anyone’s race possibly if certain scenarios develop.

No matter how much one caps a race, it does not mean one will cash a ticket.  One of the keys on Kentucky Derby day is to also let go and have a little fun with it.  This is not something I preach, but taking a shot with some numbers is not a bad idea on Derby day.  Everyone loves the Kentucky Derby and it’s great sporting event.  Make your main bets, and also make some fun bets–birthdays, trainer combos, horses names and so on.  You just never know what can happen–especially on a track that could turn out to be a swamp.  A simple $1 exacta box is $2 and they have 50 cent trifectas.  No matter what your bank roll may be, relax, make some wagers, and most importantly enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports.  No matter what happens, it promises to be a thriller.  Good luck to all!

Devil May Care Added On 4/27— Debuts At #8—#3 Endorsement Out Of Kentucky Derby With Injury

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat  (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top.  Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this  Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed.  He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time.  He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one.  Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed.  A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp.  A dry fast track is preferred.

(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me  (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely.  The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race.  Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite.  He has a solid foundation and is battle tested.  Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally.  Connections have been here before and have won it before.  He put in another nice work this morning.  He has solid credentials.  The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.  

**Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March.  Endorsement ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.  Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race.  He has a running style that should suit him well in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  A solid pace should be on tap.  The two other WinStar horse’s Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead.  Super Saver however can rate.  Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter.  **(Out Of The Kentucky Derby With Injury)**

(3)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island  (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby.  Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one.  He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI).  He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby.  Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question?  Zito is happy with him. 

(4)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy  (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David.  That race served as a solid prep race for him.  He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings.  He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip.  Another move forward is expected on Saturday.  He is well bred to get mile a quarter.  Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.

(5)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird  (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot.  Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts.  Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David.  The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin.  Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.

(6)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull  (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go.  Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes.  He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly.  His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead.  He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset.  He could possibly turn for home with the lead.  Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.

(7)(-) Devil May Care – Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom  (May) $110,000 — The filly Devil May Care shows up on the scene at the last second.  Devil May Care won the Frizette (GI) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and won the Bonnie Miss (GII) at Gulfstream Park back in March as a 3-year-old in a sharp effort.  She has a nice stalking style of running that should have her in good striking position in the Kentucky Derby.  She is also a May foal and will not actually turn three until almost a week after the Kentucky Derby.  Devil May Care is still a developing thoroughbred and that is a good thing this time of year.  She drilled a fast 5 furlongs on April 24.  Distance should be no issue.

(8)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector  (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe.  He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat.  A slow pace also hurt his chances that day.  He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances.   There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs.  He should not be one of those.  The biggest question is if he is fast enough.

(9)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick  (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20.  He worked again on Aril 26.  On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week.  Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times.  He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000.  Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race.  He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day.  He also got cut up during the race.   He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort.  He has class.

(10)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace  (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII).  He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start.  He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development.  He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win. 

(11)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer  (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12.  Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses.  Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks.  He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland.  Stately Victor should move up on an off track.  He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range.  How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern.  Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.

(12)(-) Paddy  O’Prado – El Prado – Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here.  He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI).  Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces.  And his best races have come on turf.  Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally.  All indications are his chances should improve on an off track.  He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.

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Off Derby 12

Eskendereya, Rule, Line of David and American Lion

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Later in the week ThoroughbredZone will have a complete Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview.  ThoroughbredZone will take a quick glimpse at all of the runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby and give some pro’s and con’s of each and see who is worthy to use on tickets & who is not.  Stick Around

Devil May Care Added On 4/27— Debuts At #8

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat  (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top.  Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this  Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  The absence Eskendereya has enhanced Sidney’s Candy’s chances of snagging top honors this Saturday, along with every other horse in the Kentucky Derby.  He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed.  He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time.  He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one.  Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed.  A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp.  A dry fast track is preferred.

(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me  (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely.  The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race.  Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite.  He has a solid foundation and is battle tested.  Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally.  Connections have been here before and have won it before.  He put in another nice work this morning.  He has solid credentials.  The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.  

**(3)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March.  Endorsement ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.  Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race.  He has a running style that should suit him well in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  A solid pace should be on tap.  The two other WinStar horse’s Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead.  Super Saver however can rate.  Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter.  **(Out Of Kentucky Derby With Injury)**

(4)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island  (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby.  Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one.  He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI).  He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby.  Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question?  Zito is happy with him. 

(5)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy  (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David.  That race served as a solid prep race for him.  He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings.  He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip.  Another move forward is expected on Saturday.  He is well bred to get mile a quarter.  Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.

(6)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird  (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot.  Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts.  Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David.  The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin.  Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.

(7)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull  (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go.  Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes.  He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly.  His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead.  He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset.  He could possibly turn for home with the lead.  Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.

(8)(-) Devil May Care – Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom  (May) $110,000 — The filly Devil May Care shows up on the scene at the last second.  Devil May Care won the Frizette (GI) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and won the Bonnie Miss (GII) at Gulfstream Park back in March as a 3-year-old in a sharp effort.  She has a nice stalking style of running that should have her in good striking position in the Kentucky Derby.  She is also a May foal and will not actually turn three until almost a week after the Kentucky Derby.  Devil May Care is still a developing thoroughbred and that is a good thing this time of year.  She drilled a fast 5 furlongs on April 24.  Distance should be no issue.

(9)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector  (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe.  He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat.  A slow pace also hurt his chances that day.  He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances.   There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs.  He should not be one of those.  The biggest question is if he is fast enough.

(10)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick  (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20.  He worked again on Aril 26.  On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week.  Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times.  He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000.  Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race.  He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day.  He also got cut up during the race.   He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort.  He has class.

(11)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace  (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII).  He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start.  He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development.  He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win. 

(12)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer  (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12.  Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses.  Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks.  He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland.  Stately Victor should move up on an off track.  He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range.  How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern.  Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.

(12)(-) Paddy  O’Prado – El Prado – Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here.  He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI).  Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces.  And his best races have come on turf.  Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally.  All indications are his chances should imrove on an off track.  He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.

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Off Derby 12

Eskendereya, Rule, Line of David and American Lion

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Later in the week ThoroughbredZone will have a complete Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview.  ThoroughbredZone will take a quick glimpse at all of the runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby and give some pro’s and con’s of each and see who is worthy to use on tickets & who is not.  Stick Around!

Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming—And Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview

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ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 For Week of 4/12/10

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Sidney’s Candy remains on top.  Sidney’s Candy will prepare for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Sidney’s Candy is coming off an impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he led every step of the way, and stopped the clock in an sharp 1:48 flat over the Pro-Ride surface. Sidney’s Candy will be making his first career start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby.  Always a question when a horse is doing something for the first time, but there is nothing to indicate he won’t run well on it.  Further improvement on dirt is expected.  Speedy colt has a fast cruising speed, and is able to relax as he goes.  He should see plenty of other speed in the Kentucky Derby, but if he runs his race, he could very well be the speed of the speed.  He does things easy, and it’s not out of the question he can settle off the pace if need be.  He will be making his 4th start off the layoff, and will be sitting on another big race.  Distance is no concern at this point.

(2)(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya will be the probable post time favorite in this years Kentucky Derby, coming off back to back romps in the Fountain of Youth (GII) and Wood Memorial (GI) where he earned two big speed figures.  The large son of Giant’s Causeway certainly looks the part.  He is a big, strong muscular horse. Eskendereya was not challenged in either the Fountain of Youth (GII) or the Wood Memorial (GI), drawing off to win in a hand ride in the Wood.  The pros are he is bred to go a mile and a quarter.  He is talented, but has yet to see a real stiff pace, or better quality horses.  The biggest question is whether his win in the Wood Memorial (GI) was too easy of a race.  He will get a test at Churchill Downs, but the talent to get it done is there.

(3)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky is coming off a tough trip in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he ran into some traffic issues turning for home.  He finished a troubled third to Sidney’s Candy.  If Lookin at Lucky had a clean trip it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy.   The Santa Anita Derby (GI) was far from a must win situation for Lookin at Lucky.  He locked up a spot in the Kentucky Derby a long time ago, and leads the pack in graded earnings.  Lookin at Lucky is a very seasoned 3-year-old.  He raced at two, and has progressed nicely leading up to the Kentucky Derby.  He is still developing as a 3-year-old.  He is a late May foal, which makes him one of the youngest horses in the race.  Bob Baffert’s master plan has always been to get this horse to Kentucky ready for his best race.  He may be light in the speed figure department, but makes that up with experience, and continuing maturation.  He still may have not run his best race yet.

(4)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park.  The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win.  The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away.  The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46.  It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement.  He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions.  3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is.   If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs.  He has a nice stalking style of running.

(5)(-) Line of David – Lion Heat – Emma’s Dilemma by Capote (Mar) Homebred — Line of David shows up on the scene after winning the Arkansas Derby (GI) in gate to wire fashion in his first career start on dirt.  Line of David zipped right to the lead and set fractions of 22.65, 46.26, 1:10.75, 1:36.52 and stopped the clock in 1:49.37.  He dug in and fended off the late surges of Super Saver and Dublin, who both made strong, sustained bids.  Line of David’s win was a game win, and it also was a hard fought win.  He will have three weeks to recover, and do it again.  He will face other speed horses, and will have to go a bit further in the Kentucky Derby.  He is improving at the right time, and he rattled off quick fractions early, and held on late to chalk up the Grade I win.  He will face a tall task in the Kentucky Derby, but he ran a big one in the Arkansas Derby.  The question is, will he digress or move forward?

(6)(-) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Mar) Homebred — Super Saver making just his 2nd start of 2010, ran a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI).  He sat off the pace and rallied in the stretch, just missing getting to the wire before Line of David.  He did drift a bit late, but he ran a solid race.  He also showed the important ability to sit off the pace.  In his previous races, Super Saver ran right on or near the lead.  The pros for Super Saver is he will be making his third start off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby, and he sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) last November. The negatives possibly can be, how much did the Arkansas Derby (GII) take out of him?  Breeding indicates that going a mile and a quarter should be no issue, but the jury is still out.  It will be a plus if can show the ability to rate again in the Kentucky Derby.

(7)(-) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (Apr) $525,000 — Dublin returns to the Kentucky Derby 12 after a game 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GI) to Line of David.  Dublin made a prolonged rally in the middle of the track, but was unable to go by Super Saver and Line of David.  He might not have gotten the win, but the race should set him up nicely for the Kentucky Derby, where he will be making his third start of 2010, and his third start into his current form cycle, which means who could very well move forward off this race.  D. Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about having a horse ready to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby.   The question that still remains is, if he wants to go a mile and a quarter.  If the pace scenario sets up the right way, and with his running style, he could make his presence felt in the late stages at Churchill Downs.  Dublin might have the best chance to move forward off the Arkansas Derby of the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby.  If you are going to bet the Kentucky Derby, it might not be a bad idea to use Dublin.

(8)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impazible the Louisiana Derby (GII) winner was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time.  He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII).  The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby.  Mission Impaziple is one of the harder horses to get a gauge on.  His running style should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby.  He will face a stiff test, and will have to go the mile and a quarter.  Interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.

(9)(10) American Lion – Tiznow – Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred – The parade of WinStar Farm horses that will run in these years Kentucky Derby continue to grow.  American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back.  American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race.  He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race.  American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March.  WinStar has another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby in the likes of American Lion.  American Lion is a front-runner, and should be right up there in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby with the other speedy colts.  Staying on all the way will be a tal task.

(10)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement.  Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly.  The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46.  Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late.  Conveyance is another one in this year’s Kentucky Derby that likes to roll anlong on the front end, and he will see plenty of others who run the same way.  Conveyance has only lost once in his career.  Should enter the Derby fit for bob Baffert, who can get one ready on Derby day.  Staying the distance is the  biggest concern, along with a possible hot pace sceanrio.

(11)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in the Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  He has experience in running route races.  He has run at  a mile and an eighth three times.  He should be far off the pace at Churchill, and make a long bid late.  A fast pace should help him.  Is he fast enough is the question?

(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Another WinStar horse set for the Kentucky Derby.  Rule set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  Rule will enter the Kentucky Derby off a 6-week layoff.  The one thing we know is he will be a fresh horse.  How he runs off the layoff is a bit of an unknown.  He has always shown the ability to run right up on, or near the lead, and in this year’s Kentucky Derby that could be a very crowded place to be.  There should be plenty of other speed to deal with.  If he can show the ability to rate, that could help his cause, but there is nothing to indicate he can, and the derby is not really the time to experiment.  The distance will be his other issue.

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The Lexington Stakes, The Derby Trial and The Withers are the three remaming races left that could have an impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby.  One horse to mention is the speed ball Eightyfiveinafifty, who still clings to Kentucky Derby hopes.  If he makes it in, he will make a fast pace even more insane.  Hold on and get ready if he makes it.  He will run in either The Derby Trial or the Withers.

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And NJ Bred Together Indy Wins The Commonwealth At Keeneland! ThoroughbredZone Flashback http://bit.ly/9j3dN

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Big changes this week—Sidney’s Candy takes over at #1—moving up from #3.  Eskendereya moves up to #2.  Lookin at Lucky drops to #3.  American Lion debuts in the #10 spot. Caracortado drops off.  Endorsement moves up to #4.  Noble’s Promise drops to #5.  Odysseus drops to #7.  Interactif moves up to #6.  These are the most notable changes this week.  #1 through #5 have have been shaken up.  Things are getting very interesting as we close in on May 1, 2010.

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Next Week There Will Be A Complete Updated  ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 After The Arkansas Derby & Blue Grass

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ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12

(1)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy takes over as the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after putting together another dazzling performance in winning the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  ThoroughbredZone has been high on this horse since his sharp win in the San Vicente (GII).  He followed that win by putting together another awesome front-running win in the San Felipe (GII).  Sidney’s Candy topped both those efforts by winning the Santa Anita Derby (GI) to make it three straight wins.  Sidney’s Candy broke on top and never looked back after briefly stumbling out of the gate easily galloping along  until the top of the stretch.  When Joe Talamo asked Sidney’s Candy for more—he responded with another  explosion of power to draw clear.   It was lights out for the rest of the field after that.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.00, 48.50, 1:12.33, 1:35.55 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:48.00 flat—and he rocketed home in a fast 12.45.  Sidney’s Candy margin of victory was four and a half lengths.  Setsuko made a belated rally, but it was not nearly enough.  Sidney’s Candy was making his first career start at a one and one eighth miles.  He went past the wire strongly, never showing signs of exhaustion, and never being passed by any horse as he galloped out after crossing the finish line.  Sidney’s Candy has a nice fluid, easy running style.  He has a superb cruising speed, and he does it all on his own, never being asked for anything in the early stages of a race.  And he is capable of going faster in his cruising mode.  One question that he will face is—can he handle dirt?  Everything has come easy for this colt so far.  The dirt question will loom, but he should have no issue with it.  In fact he could very well improve on dirt.  There is also the question as to how he will handle other speed horses.  Any horse that goes to the lead will have to deal with him, and that won’t be an easy task.  Sidney’s Candy is a naturally fast  runner.  If he improves further more off his Santa Anita Derby (GI) at Churchill Downs, he will be difficult to deal with.  He has improved with each race this year up until now.  The Kentucky Derby will be his fourth start off the layoff, and he will be cycling up to a peak effort.  Sidney’s Candy also has the advantage of being a January foal, giving him an edge in the maturation department.  Sidney’s Candy has speed and stamina—going a mile and a quarter will be no issue.  He defeated American Lion with ease in the San Felipe (GII)—who came back to win the Illinois Derby (GIII).  Sidney’s Candy is as talented Thoroughbred. The sky is limit with this guy. | Next-Kentucky Derby
(2)(4) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya followed his big Fountain of Youth (GII) win by stomping out five other foes in the Wood Memorial (GI), going on to win by almost 10 lengths.  Eskendereya never had to do too much in the Wood Memorial (GI).  Eskendereya rated right off Most Happy Fella and Jackson Bend, through slow fractions of 24.32, 49.21 and 1:13.54.  Eskendereya took over the lead  turning for home in a hand ride.   Eskendereya cruised home under the guidance of John Velasquez—who took a few peaks behind, only to see the others horses getting smaller as Eskendereya’s lead widened on a field that was no match for him on this day.  The win a public workout for the son of Giant’s Causeway—who never once saw the whip.  Eskendereya sporting front bandages for the first time stopped the clock in 1:49.97 over a fast track.  Eskendereya came home in a fast 12.24 after sitting off lazy splits.  Eskendereya stamped himself as the probable post time favorite when he enters the gate in the Kentucky Derby.  Eskendereya is a large, well built horse who will see his first class test in the Kentucky Derby, and it’s where he will see Sidney’s Candy, among others up close and personal—in what could be shaping up as a classic west coast vs. east coast showdown between the two.  Eskendereya will be put to the test when he faces Sidney’s Candy.  He will most certainly be the best horse he has seen.  Eskendereya has a lot of talent, going a mile and a quarter will not be an issue.  The one question that could be a concern is—was the Wood Memorial (GI) too easy of a race for him?  He certainly looks the part. We will see soon enough. | Next-Kentucky Derby

(3)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky kicked off the first  ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 on top—he slips to #3 this week after his troubled 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  ThoroughbredZone indicated before the race, that this was far from a must win situation for the son of Smart Strike.  Lookin at Lucky locked up a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs a long time ago.  In Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (GI) he went off as the odds on choice.  He was stalking not too far behind Sidney’s Candy along the rail when he ran into some trouble— jockey Garret Gomez had to check Lookin at Lucky as he approached the turn for home, ending any chance at beating Sidney’s Candy at that point, and even if he had no issues, it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy.  Why he was down on the rail is another story.  Lookin at Lucky will still head to Churchill Down with the best foundation of any horse in the race.  He has already proved he can handle dirt, and his stalking style will have him in contention throughout.  Bob Baffert’s Real Quiet and Silver Charm, both ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (GI)—they both went on to win the Kentucky Derby.  Lookin at Lucky will no longer be considered the horse to beat now at Churchill Downs, where he will face off against Sidney’s Candy and Eskendereya.  Lookin at Lucky still has plenty of upside.  He did not have the best of trips in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Lookin at Lucky should come into the race in good order, and ready for a peak effort.  Nothing comes easy in the Kentucky Derby—this year will be no exception. | Next Kentucky Derby

(4)(7) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement zooms up to #4 spot this week  Endorsement was making only his 4th career start in the Sunland Derby(GIII), and it was his first attempt in graded stakes competition.  Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park.  The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win.  The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away.  The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46.  It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement.  He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions.  3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is.   If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs.  He has a nice stalking style of running.  Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby

(5)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise drops down to #5 this week by no fault of his own.  It could be a temporary dip—with a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI) he could jump right back up.  Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI), just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)
(6)(8 Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)

(7)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Drops to #7 this week.  Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)

(8)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act drops to #8 this week.  Awesome Act the winner of the Gotham (GIII) back in March was no match for Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI) this past Saturday.  Turning for home Awesome Act was in a good stalking position, and Julien Leparoux had Awesome Act in a hammerlock turning gore home, but when he was called upon to make a run, he was unable to sustain a strong rally.  Awesome Act was unable to make up any ground on the run-a-way winner Eskendereya.  Awesome Act was making his second start off a layoff in the Wood Memorial (GI).  He ran a very strong race in the Gotham (GIII) and how much that might have taken out of him is something that should be considered.  Awesome Act had to overcome a long plane flight and a stay in the detention barn before winning the Gotham (GIII).  Awesome Act lost a shoe coming out of the starting gate, and that is not a good thing.  And the lazy fractions were of no help.  He will need a faster pace—Gotham (GIII) fractions were very sharp, setting up his strong late rally.  It looks like connections intend to go forward to Churchill Downs.  He would be making his third start off the layoff, but he will have to show he can run faster.  He faces a tall order in a few weeks, nothing is impossible, but nonetheless he will have to ramp it up a few notches to be considered a real threat to win the roses.  The faster the pace, the better off he will be.  He should improve off his Wood Memorial (GI) effort. | Next-Kentucky Derby

(9)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand.  Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time.  He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII).  The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will.  Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race.  Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win.  A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed.  A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32.  Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?

(10)(-)American Lion – Tiznow – Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred – The parade of Winstar Farm horses that will run in this years Kentucky Derby continue to grow.  American Lion debuts in the # 10 this week after winning the Illinois Derby (GIII) in his dirt debut.  American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back.  American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race.  He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race.  American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March.  Winstar farm has a another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby  in the likes of American Lion. | Next-Kentucky Derby

(11)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement.  Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly.  The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46.  Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late.  The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more.  Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing.  Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert?  The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well.  Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby.  Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?

(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  Here is an interesting tid-bit— Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth.   Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day.  Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby.  The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully.  Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya.  What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year.   The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario.  Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause.  Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next – Kentucky Derby

(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire.  He did stay on to finish a game 3rd.  The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth.  He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time.  Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby.  He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances.  His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now.  The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break.  He will come into the race well rested.  Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end.  If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby

Knocking On Door

Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer – 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince – 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI),  Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), Tiz the One – Talented son of Tiznow, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- 2nd in Wood Memorial (GI),  Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – 4th in Wood Memorial (GI), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI)

#3 Sidney’s Candy rolls all the way in a smashing effort to win the Santa Anita Derby (GI) in 1:48.00 flat  #1 Lookin at Lucky finishes a distant 3rd.

#4 Eskendereya runs away from the rest to win the Wood Memorial (GI) with ease by almost 10 lengths.

American Lion turns back Yawanna Twist to win the Illinois Derby (GIII).

A New ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Soon–And We Have A Brand New #1!

The Wood Memorial

Eskendereya enters the Wood Memorial (GI) coming off an impressive 8 1/2 lengths victory in the Fountain of Youth (GII) at Gulfstream Park in February.  The win looked impressive, and quickly vaulted him to the top of many Kentucky Derby lists.  He is expected by many to duplicate that performance in the Wood Memorial (GI). Eskendereya will face five others, and the one horse who stands the best chance to defeat Eskendereya is Awesome Act—the winner of the Gotham (GIII) in March.

Awesome Act rated  not too far behind  a quick pace in the Gotham (GIII) and made a wide sweeping move turning for home, and when asked he responded with a burst of energy, taking over the lead and holding off Yawanna Twist for the win. Awesome Act gets a lot credit for winning that day.  He was able to overcome a few things—getting off a plane from a flight across the Atlantic Ocean earlier in the week, and spending a couple of days in the detention barn.  Despite that, Awesome Act went on win the Gotham (GIII) in a sharp effort. Awesome Act should offer a stiffer challenge than anyone in the Fountain of Youth (GII) was able to.  Tomorrow could tell us a lot–about both horses.

Jackson Bend will be making his first start since running 2nd to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth (GII), but how far can he go is still a bit of a question.  He should go right to the lead. Jackson Bend finished a distant 2nd to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth (GII). Jackson Bend is working well and it’s Nick Zito’s time of year.  He will be making his third start off the layoff.

Schoolyard Dreams ships in from Tampa Bay where he got nosed out for the win by Odysseus in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII). Odysseus is highly regarded by many, but tomorrow’s Wood could give us a good indication of how strong that Tampa Bay group is. Schoolyard Dreams has been solid in all three of his starts at Tampa Bay this year.

Most Happy Fella and Carniovre round out the field.  Both of these colts step way up in the class department and face a tall task. Carnivore did have a sizzling 5 furlong work in 58 at Laurel on March 21.

Eskendereya and Awesome Act will be the first and second choices on the board.  The Wood Memorial should give us a good idea of how good these colts are.  I’m not willing at this point to crown Eskendereya the Derby champ—yet.  Let’s see how he handles Awesome Act.

The Santa Anita Derby

The Santa Anita Derby (GI) will be a showdown between the #1 and #3 horses on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. Lookin at Lucky will look to roll into Churchill Downs next month as thee horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby.  The Santa Anita Derby (GI) drew a field of 10 horses.  The biggest challenge to Lookin at Lucky is Sidney’s Candy—the impressive winner of the San Vicente (GII) and San Felipe (GII). Sidney’s Candy will look to stretch that speed out even further—to a mile and an eighth.  So far during this years Kentucky Derby preps, we have seen three speedy front running horses fail to go all the way stretching out to a mile and an eighth. Rule, Discreetly Mine and Conveyance could not hold on, and they were all passed in the stretch.  Will Sidney’s Candy be the fourth to fail to go all they way?

Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions in the San Felipe (GII), and when asked at the top of the stretch he responded by exploding to the wire. Interactif made a bid, but came up short, and never at anytime passed Sidney’s Candy in the gallop out.  The biggest key for Sidney’s Candy might be the ability to rate off the pace a bit.  He has a nice relaxing style of running when out on the lead.  After watching him in the San Felipe (GII), I think this horse could very well relax a bit off the pace.  He is a talented horse.

Lookin at Lucky will enter the gate as the odds on favorite in a race he does not absolutely have to win.  The Santa Anita Derby (GI) is far from a must win situation.  Bob Baffert’s main goal is the Kentucky Derby. Lookin at Lucky boasts the best resume of any horse on the Derby trail, and continues to mature.  Bob Baffert is looking for a solid effort to spring board him forward in the Derby, where he will be making his third start off the layoff.  He should cycle right up to a big effort in the Kentucky Derby.  Here is a tid-bit—both Real Quiet and Silver Charm finished 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (GI)—both went on to win the Kentucky Derby.

Caracortado will look to rebound after finishing 3rd in the San Felipe (GII) to Sidney’s Candy–suffering his first defeat. Skip Shot stretches out to a mile and an eighth for Jerry Hollendorfer, and has speed. Alphies Bet, winner of the Sham (GIII) will try to go for the upset again, but it will be a tall task this time. Posse Power, Thomas Baines, Who’s Up, Setuko and Cardiff Giant round out the field.

Sidney’s Candy will look to spring a big race and confirm his status as a legitimate Kentucky Derby Prospect.

The Illinois Derby

The Illinois Derby (GIII) drew a field of 8 horses–half of those in the field will be making their first career starts on dirt.  The morning line favorite is Winstar Farm’s American Lion.  He is one of four horses that will make his first start on dirt. American Lion will be making his third start off the layoff and breaks from the rail.

Dave in Dixie makes his first career start on dirt as well. Dave in Dixie is a horse that likes to come from behind, and make a late rally. Dave in Dixie debuted on the first ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12.  He will making his third start off the layoff as well.

Backtalk is back.  He will be making his first start since February 10, where he won a minor stakes race at Delta Downs. Backtalk registered a blazing 6 furlong work in 1:09 on March 25.

Turf Melody will be making his 10th career start at his 10th different track.  He is has certainly logged some frequent flyer miles.

This is an interesting race, and somewhat tricky to settle on a horse. American Lion should have no issue with running on the dirt.  Winstar has spotted their horses beautifully this spring, and they hope it will payoff again in the Illinois Derby (GIII).

The horse I have been following for awhile now is the New York Bred Yawanna Twist. Yawanna Twist is coming off a sharp 2nd place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham (GIII) back in March. Yawanna Twist will be making his fourth career start in the Illinois Derby (GIII).  The one thing we do know about Yawanna Twist is he has run on dirt, and won on it in New York.  Depending on what happens in the Wood Memorial (GI) earlier in the day, it could tell is a lot more about Yawanna Twist. Yawanna Twist made a strong late rally in the Gotham (GIII), and was making up ground very late on Awesome Act.  The connections decided to skip the Wood and ship here.  I think this is the better of the two spots at this point, and I expect Yawanna Twist to make a good accounting of himself in the Illinois Derby (GIII).

Stephen’s Got Hope, Boulder Creek and Game Ball round out the Illinois Derby (GIII) field.

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It will be a huge day of Kentucky Derby prep action this Saturday.  And all three races look to have a huge impact on this years Kentucky Derby.  Live coverage of the Santa Anita Derby (GI) and Wood Memorial (GI) will be shown on NBC at 5:00 PM EST.  I will be at Aqueduct on Saturday and catch all the action.  I will try to make some live updates on Twitter.  Snap Shots of the big day will be posted as soon as I can get them up.

Will there be a new #1 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12?  There very well could be…We will soon find out.  Big day on tap!

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And Cool N Collective Retires At Age 13

Cool N Collective Retirement Ceremony On Wood Day

 And there could be a new #1 on ThoroughbredZone’s  Kentucky Derby Top 12 after this weekend…

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(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky still sitting pretty at #1.  Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII).  In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two.  Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07.  Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31.  The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt.  Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature.  Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid.  If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI) making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert.  One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. A showdown is looming with Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  Lookin at Lucky does not have to win this race.  Two of Bob Baffert’s other Kentucky Derby winning horses, Real Quiet and Silver Charm both used the Santa Anita Derby (GI) as their final prep before the Kentucky Derby—they both finished 2nd. | Next-Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(2)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI), just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30.  He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly.  Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif.  Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win.  And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race.  He has a relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate.  He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department.  He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt.  He has yet to race on dirt. He will face off against Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) in what should be a classic showdown. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(4)(4) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  It was a nice win, but not as easy as it looked.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter.  He will face Awesome Act Wood Memorial (GI). | Next-Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) –Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)

(6)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt in the Gotham (GIII).   He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow.  Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer.  Awesome Act will face off against Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI).  The Wood Memorial should give us a good gauge on how good these two colts are. | Next- Wood Memorial (GI)

(7)(-) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement debuts at #7 after showing up on the scene with a huge effort to win the Sunland Derby (GIII) over heavy favorite Conveyance.  Endorsement was making only his 4th career start, and it was his first in graded stakes competition.  Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park.  The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge win over a horse that was expected to win.  The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away.  The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46.  It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement.  He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions.  3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is.   If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that could mean good things at Churchill Downs.  He has a nice stalking style.  Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby

(8)(7) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)

(9)(-) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand.  Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time.  He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII).  The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will.  Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race.  Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win.  A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed.  A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32.  Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?

(10)(11) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred –Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13.  He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race.  Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sidney’s Candy.  He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sidney’s Candy’s lead.  He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future.  He will have to move forward in his next race. He will face Sidney’s Candy and Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(11)(8) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement.  Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly.  The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46.  Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late.  The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more.  Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing.  Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert?  The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well.  Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby.  I still think Mr. Baffert expected to win this race.  Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?

(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  Here is an interesting tid-bit—Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth.   Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day.  Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby.  The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully.  Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya.  What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year.   The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario.  Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause.  Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next – Kentucky Derby

(12)(10) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire.  He did stay on to finish a game 3rd.  The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth.  He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time.  Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby.  He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances.  His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now.  The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break.  He will come into the race well rested.  Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end.  If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby

Knocking On Door

Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer – 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince – 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI),  Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), American Lion – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14 at a mile, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- Next Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – Next Wood Memorial (GI), Yawanna Twist- Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Next Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Dave In Dixie – Next Illinois Derby (GIII)

New ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Tuesday–Expect Some Changes

The #1 Horse And #3 Horse Possible To Square off in The Santa Anita Derby (GI)–#1 Lookin at Lucky 90% Certain For Santa Anita Derby & Would Meet #3 Sidney’s Candy In A West Coast Kentucky Derby Showdown!

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Here is a quick look at today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) and a look at the top conteders.

Conveyance is the morning line 9/5 favorite in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII).  This is the first time that the Sunland Derby (GIII) is a graded race. Conveyance is the undefeated son of Indian Charlie, and is trained by Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert. Conveyance should go right to the lead and try to dictate the pace the entire way.

Two horses in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) that will try to get their tickets punched to Churchill Downs will be Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit.  Nacho Friend is coming in off a game 3rd place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham (GIII) earlier this month at Aqueduct.  It was Nacho Friends first start since July 31, 2009 where he ran a good 4th in the Sanford Stakes (GII) at Saratoga. Nacho Friend will be making his second start off the layoff in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) for Kelly Breen.  Joe Bravo has made the trip out west to ride Nacho Friend.  George and Lori Hall’s Nacho Friend breezed 5 furlongs over the Sunland surface on March 22.  This is a good spot for Nacho Friend. This field is not the strongest, and has two other main contenders to deal with in Conveyance and Tempted to Tapit.  I expect Nacho Friend to run well today and try to get that ticket punched to Churchill Downs.  He should move forward off his last race.

Tempted to Tapit comes into the Sunland Derby (GIII) after running a game 2nd to Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star (GII) at the Fairgrounds in February. Tempted to Tapit is the #12 horse in ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12–tied with Ice Box, winner of last weeks Florida Derby (GI). Tempted to Tapit was an $18,000 purchase and has already gone on to earn over $100,000.  He will look to add to that total this afternoon. Tempted to Tapit has been working strongly at Gulfstream Park for trainer Steve Kelsaris. Tempted to Tapit is ready for a solid attempt in today’s  Sunland Derby (GIII).

Conveyance will be a tough customer today for Bob Baffert. Conveyance has been working like a machine for Bob Baffert over the Pro-Ride surface Santa Anita.  A top effort to propel him into the Kentucky Derby is expected. Conveyance is also going to be stretching out for the first time to a mile and an eighth.  However Nacho Friend & Tempted to Tapit will offer him his biggest challenge today.  Both Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit will need strong efforts to be considered Kentucky Derby prospects.  I expect both to run well and be there late today.  They will have to beat Conveyance, and they will give it their best shot.

One other horse to make mention of here in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) is Classical Slew, who will be making his first career start on dirt for Doug O’Neil. Classical Slew makes his first start since a 3rd place finish in the San Vicente (GII) to speedster and the #3 horse on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 Sydney’s Candy. Classical Slew will be stretching out for the first time today, and has some speed.  He could go right up after Conveyance early.  If Classical Slew shows early pop, that could make for an interesting pace scenario.

The rest of the field looks overmatched at this point.  The two biggest threats to Conveyance are Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit. Classical Slew could be a pace factor–depending on what happens with him, it could have an impact on the races outcome.  It’s hard to gauge how well he will run.  Should be a good price, and using underneath might not be a bad idea.  The final furlong in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) should be interesting.  Conveyance will try to hold off the late bids of Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit.

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Here is a quick peek a couple of the horses in today’s Louisiana Derby (GII) that could get their ticket punched to Churchill Downs.

There a few interesting horses in today’s Louisiana Derby (GII) that warrant some respect.  A Little Warm is coming in off a 30+ Day layoff for Anthony Dutrow–who is rock solid bringing horses back from a layoff like this.  A Little Warm ran a solid 2nd to speedball D’Funnybone in the Hutcheson Stakes (GII) at 7 furlongs back on February 20, 2010.  He ran a solid race and was gaining late on D’Funnybone.  Today he stretches out for the first time to a mile and an eighth–another solid angle for Anthony Dutrow.  A Little Warm has had two very nice works in preparation for today’s Louisiana Derby, and I think he will be fine stretching out.  A Little Warm’s dam is Minidar by Alydar, and is her best runner to date.  A Little Warm is in a good spot to move forward, and should be able to relax off the pace not all that far behind.  He looks good today.

Drosselmeyer for Winstar farms is another horse that I think will run a good race here today.  Drosselmeyer is cycling up to a big race today for Bill Mott.  This will be his third career start off the layoff for Drosselemeyer, and is certainly cycling up to one of his top efforts, and he will need it to get the graded money needed to compete in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Drosselmeyer ran a good 4th in The Risen Star (GII) last month over this same surface.  Drosselmeyer should move forward off that race in his 3rd career start today on dirt.  I expect him to make a solid late rally.

One of the pacesetters will be the morning line favorite 7/2 Discreetly Mine.  Who should have a little company on the front end in the likes of Wow Wow Wow, Backtrack and possibly Mission Impaziple. Mission Impaziple is also eligible to improve here today, but faces a stiff challenge.  His running style today will be an important factor.

Fly Down for Nick Zito will be making his second start off the layoff today with Jose Lezcano up.  Any Zito horse this time of year should be respected.

The Program for Bob Baffert makes his first career start on dirt and has run well on the west coast.  He has the most experience in the race and was a length and a half behind Lookin at Lucky in the Cash Call Futurity (GI) last December.

The rest are Fairgrounds based horses and will they be taking a big step up in class in today’s Louisiana Derby (GII).   Ron The Greek is a deep one dimensional closer who will see his best field yet and will be going a mile and an eighth for the first time.

(2)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – In hindsight he should have been on the first ThoroughbredZone  Kentucky Derby 12.  Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI) just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  Noble’s Promise could very well be on his way to a long rivalry with Lookin at Lucky that could last all year. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred –  Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30.  He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly.  Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif.  Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win.  And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race.  He has a  relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate.  He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department.  He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt.  He has yet to race on dirt. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(4)(4) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter. | Next-Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Moves up one spto to #5.  Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his race prior.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI) or Arkansas Derby (GI)

(6)(7) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdinis Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act moves up one spot to #5.  A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt in the Gotham (GIII).   He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow.  Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer.  He will see a tougher field next out. Awesome Act is aiming for the Wood Memorial (GI)

(7)(8) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – Moves up one spot to #7.  He ran a good closing 2nd to Sydney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sydney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sydney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slowepace set by Sydney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop, but never passed Sydney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race.  It looks like he will get another chance next month. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(8)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Conveyance moves up to #9.  Another Bob Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4—that makes him the only undefeated horse left on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally.  Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter.   He could very well be suited best suited for distances less than a mile.  Bob Baffert is aiming for the Kentucky Derby with him. | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII)

(9)(11) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine moves up to #10.  Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race.  Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead.  Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go.  Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next- 4th In Louisiana Derby (GII)

(10)(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – Drops down to #5 this week.  The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire.  He did stay on to finish a game 3rd.  The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth.  He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time.  Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby.  He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances.  His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now.  The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break.  He will come into the race well rested.  Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end.  If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby

(11)(9) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – Drops down to #11 this week.  Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13.  He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race.  Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sydney’s Candy.  He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sydney’s Candy’s lead.  He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future.  He will have to move forward in his next race. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(12)(12) Tempted to Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – No change.  Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted to Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next- Sunland Derby (GIII)

(12) (-) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box winner of the Florida Derby (GI)  debuts in the #12 spot in a tie with Tempted to Tapit.  Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  Here is an interesting tid-bit—Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII)  in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth.   Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day.  Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again will show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby.  The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully.  Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya.  What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year.   The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario.  Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause.  Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next -Kentucky Derby

Knocking On Door

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Pleasant Prince - 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Dublin – Arkansas Derby (GI), American Lion – 4th in San Felipe (GII), Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14 at a mile, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Connemara –  Lane’s End (GII), Schoolyard Dreams – Illinois Derby (GIII), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- Next Sunland Derby (GII), Aikenite – Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Santa Anita Derby (GI), Super Saver – Wood Memorial (GI) Next, A Little Warm – Louisiana Derby (GII) possible, Ron The Greek – 6th In Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer - 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Make Music For Me - Blue Grass Stakes (GI)

The Florida Derby is a race that has a lot of questions.  And the answers might not be known until after the race.  ThoroughbredZone will give a quick preview, as for a pick, well let’s just do this first.  Rule stretches out today to a mile and an eighth, after winning the Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay Downs.  Rule is going to be faced with his biggest task to date.  He should also have company on the front end, as there should be enough speed in this race to keep him from getting lonely. 
The questions are, can Rule make that move forward? Will he be able to put the other speeds away? There is also the possibility that Rule will show a new dimension today and sit off the pace. I have thought highly of this horse, today is a big test for him. He might not go to the lead today, but sit off the pace, something he has yet to do in a route race, today could be the day he does.

Radiohead and Miner’s Reserve have a lot of things in common, on paper anyway.  Both of these horses raced on 2/27, both races were at a mile, they both won drawing off, both almost stopped the clock in a nearly the same time (1:35), and they both received a 94 Beyer figure.  Today they face off, as they both stretch-out to a mile and an eighth in the Florida Derby.  I watched both of these races and they both looked sharp in winning.  Radiohead rated just off the pace and opened up turning for home.  He is making his 2nd start off the layoff, which is one of Richard Dutrow’s strong suits.  He has had only one slow breeze since that win, but watching Dutrow over the years, this horse should be all systems go.  Radiohead also has a solid racing foundation.  He was in multiple Grade I and Grade II stakes races in England–they were in shorter races, but he does have class.  Miner’s Reserve makes his 3rd career start in the Florida Derby for Nick Zito.  He popped out of the gate last time and led almost the entire way, opening up to win by 5 1/2 to break his maiden. Miner’s Reserve ability to go longer should not be too much of an issue.  Anyway you look at these two, they both have talent and they both stretch-out.  They are very interesting, and I do think they are capable of running quite well.  Both of these horses have good speed, so if they go to the lead it could very well be a speed duel here.  The key will be if one or both can show the ability to rate.

There a couple of others that also like to run on or near the lead today.  Game on Dude also broke his maiden at a mile on 2/27.  Game on Dude sports two fast works since that race. How he runs today is a bit of a mystery.  He has early speed and is making his 3rd career start. Will he go right out, or rate.  He is morning line 12/1.

First Dude makes 5th career start today, after running 2nd in a mile and eighth event.  He has run the distance of a mile and an eighth.  In both his last two races, he has run on or near the lead. Trainer Dale Romans likes that fact he is improving each morning and is a big horse. Another interesting entry.

Lentenor is Barbaro’s brother, and he will make his dirt debut today. He will try to follow in his brothers footsteps and try to win the Florida Derby.  How will he handle the dirt?  I think he should be fine, and he looks like he will be one of a few horses that will sit back and make a move late in this race, and the way the pace scenario is setting up, that could very well benefit him.  It would be no shocker if Lentenor runs very well here today.

Soaring Empire breaks from the rail after winning a 7 furlong allowance race on 2/25.  He sat a little off the pace in that race and made a good move to take over.  He will make his 2nd start off the layoff and takes a big jump up in class for Cam Gambolati today.  He should not be too far away from the lead.

Pleasant Prince was a non factor in the Fountain of Youth.  He ran 2nd just missing in an allowance at a mile and an eighth the race before that in 1:50.  He has two fast works since the Fountain of Youth.

Ice Box is coming out of the Fountain of Youth as well.  He was also a non factor that day.  He does sport a win a mile and an eighth.  Ice Box will again try graded company and try to be a factor for Nick Zito in the Florida Derby.

Pulison and Best Actor round out the field. Pulison made his first career start on dirt last time in the Fountain of Youth.  He was a non factor.  Pulison ran a strong race last year, when he finished 2nd to Lookin at Lucky on the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita.  Best Actor has not seen action since 1/31.  He ran a good race last time, finishing 3rd to Drosselmeyer.  He will step up to Grade I company this afternoon.

The biggest question with today’s Florida Derby is how the pace scenario will develop.  Several horse show the speed and like to run on the front end.  If some of these horses can show the ability to rate–that would make a huge difference in this race.  Miner’s Reserve and Radiohead are the two horses that I think will need to sit off the pace a little.  And of course the morning line favorite 5/2 favorite Rule–will he go right out again? I think today is the day we could see a new dimension from him.  How to bet the race?  I would take a look at what horse you feel has a good chance at good odds.  Radiohead and Rule are the 1-2 choices. Miner’s Reserve is 6/1 in the morning line.  This is a tough race to handicap.  Lentenor like I said before would not be a shock to run a big one here today.  Will there be a surprise, or will Rule solidify himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse?

Pace makes the race–well that will certainly be the case today in a very intriguing renewal of the Florida Derby. Good luck!

(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky stays on top this week.  Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII).  In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two.  Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07.  Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31.  The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt.  Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature.  Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid.  If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI)  making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert.  One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. | Next-Arkansas Derby (GI) or Wood Memorial (GI) <!–more–>

(2)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise debuts in the #2  spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  In hindsight he should have been on the first ThoroughbredZone  Kentucky Derby 12.  Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI) just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  Noble’s Promise could very well be on his way to a long rivalry with Lookin at Lucky that could last all year. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Moves up from #11 all the way to #3 this week.  Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30.  He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly.  Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif.  Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win.  And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race.  He has a  relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate.  He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department.  He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt.  He has yet to race on dirt. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI) 4/3

(4)(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Drops down to #4—No Changes.   Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – Stays put at #5—No Changes.  The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins.  He ran on the front end in both wins.  Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others.  Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night.  He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances.  He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further.  He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 or Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(6)(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Stays put at #6.  Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his race prior.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Wood Memorial (GI) Possible

(7)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdinis Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act debuts at #7 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after winning the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 6.  A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt.   He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow.  Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer.  He will see a tougher field next out. Awesome Act is aiming for the Wood Memorial (GI) on 4/3

(8)(-) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – Interactif debuts at #8 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  He ran a good closing 2nd to Sydney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sydney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sydney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slowepace set by Sydney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop, but never passed Sydney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race.  It looks like he will get another chance next month. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(9)(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – Drops down to #9 this week.  Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13.  He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race.  Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sydney’s Candy.  He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sydney’s Candy’s lead.  He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future.  He will have to move forward in his next race. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(10)(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #10—No Changes.  Another Bob Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4—that makes him the only undefeated horse left on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally.  Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter.   He could very well be suited best suited for distances less than a mile.  Bob Baffert is aiming for the Kentucky Derby with him. | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) 3/28

(11)(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Drops down to #11—No Changes.  Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race.  Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead.  Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go.  Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(12)(10) Tempted to Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Drops down to # 12—No Changes.  Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted to Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) or Florida Derby (GI)

Off Kentucky Derby 12  – D’Funnybone – Swale (GII),  Dave In Dixie – 6th in San Felipe (GII),  Dublin – Next New York’s St. Patrick’s Day Parade

Knocking On Door

****

Schoolyard Dreams – Just missed winning Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead – Florida Derby (GI) Next, Miner’s Reserve – Next Florida Derby (GI), Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII)—American Lion – 4th in San Felipe (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Connemara –  Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite – Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk – Louisiana (GII), Illinois Derby (GII)  or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII)—Wood Memorial (GI) Next, A Little Warm – Louisiana Derby (GII) possible, Ron The Greek – Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer - Next start undecided, Make Music For Me - Blue Grass Stakes (GI)

***The Cheltenham Gold Cup is Friday.  Don’t miss out on all the exciting Online Betting opportunities that await in this horse racing betting classic***

Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Soon

 
Massive Nor’easter KO’s Internet–Will Try To Get This Up Sometime Tonight Or Tomorrow*** There Will Be Some Changes In The New ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12***
No Apple Blossom For Rachel Alexandra

Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) – Odysseus will try to back up his impressive 15 length win last time out today against  Super Saver, who will be making his 3-year-old debut this afternoon at Tampa Bay Downs.  Super Saver has been working very well well for Todd Pletcher, and will certainly come into this race ready to run.  The lightly raced Uptowncharlybrown makes his 4th career start after a 3rd place finish in the Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) behind Rule and Schoolyard Dreams.  Schoolyard Dreams will also be coming into this race off his 2nd place finish to Rule.

The Rebel (GII) – Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise will both make their first lifetime starts on dirt.  Noble’s Promise has been working very well for his 3-year-old debut for Ken McPeek.  Dublin was a fast closing 2nd to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes last month over this same surface.  Uh Oh Bango will make his 3-year-old debut as well.  He was a game 2nd to the Rule in the Delta Jackpot.  We will get to see how Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise handle the dirt.

The San Felipe (GII) – This is the 3rd of the three Kentucky Derby preps today, and this one is shaping up to be a good one.  The undefeated Caracortado faces his stiffest challenge to date.  He is coming off a win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) where he was able to get to the wire first–holding off the strong late rally of Dave In Dixie–who will also run today’s San Felipe Stakes (GII).  Sidney’s Candy will stretch out today for the first time to a mile and sixteenth.  He was an impressive winner last out in the San Vincente Stakes (GII)–leading gate to wire through fast fractions to stop the clock in 1:20.91.  John Sadler trains both Sidney’s Candy and Dave In Dixie–a solid 1-2 punch.  American Lion is returning after his 3rd place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.  Interactif is moving from turf to Pro-Ride in today’s San Felipe (GII) for Todd Pletcher.  Stephen’s Got Hope–troubled trip last time and Erbeia (Both coming out of the same race) a late runner for Richard Mandella round out this field–both face their stiffest class test yet.

The Champions Are Back In Action Today!–Watch Them Both On The NTRA Today–Link Below

Rachel Alexandra will face a field of 4 others in today’s New Orleans Ladies at a mile and a sixteenth.  This race will serve as a prep for the huge “Race For The Ages” the Apple Blossom (GI) at Oaklawn Park against Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and the undefeated Zenyatta on April 9, 2010.  And Zenyatta herself will also get a prep race in today’s (GI) Santa Margarita at Santa Anita at a mile and an eighth. The undefeated Zenyatta will face 7 others.  You can watch the live webcast on NTRA starting at 6:00 PM EST.  Just click this link.

***An Updated ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Soon***

Why Not A Meadowlands Thoroughbred Turf Meet?

 The end of thoroughbred racing at the Meadowlands has come to an end—for the time being anyway.  The powers that be have decided that converting the Meadowlands harness track to a thoroughbred track is not worth the time, energy, and most importantly the money.

In recent years it has been no secret that the Meadowlands was in jeopardy of discontinuing the thoroughbred racing meet due to cost and other reasons.  It seemed every year there was a rumor in the air that this would be the last year of thoroughbred racing at the Meadowlands.

The bottom line is this—it just does not make sense to convert the track for thoroughbred racing from harness racing.  Instead New Jersey will have a shortened meet at Monmouth Park starting May 22, and will run through September 11, with $50 million in purse money spread over the 50-day meet.  The planned days of racing will be Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  I love Monmouth Park, and I think the potential of success is there for sure.  I have always considered Monmouth Park my other home track.

Does thoroughbred racing at the Meadowlands really have to come to a complete end?  I say the answer is no.  The Meadowlands still has a fine turf course that will go completely unused.

I propose the state of New Jersey run a shortened Meadowlands turf thoroughbred meet after the Monmouth Park meet ends.  Now this may not at all be possible this year, considering the  racing dates have already been decided, but down the road this could be a feasible idea.

There are more pros, than cons with a Meadowlands Turf meet.  By the time September comes around , the Monmouth Park turf course will have taken some good wear and tear.  The Meadowlands turf course will have been untouched for the entire year.  And aside from normal maintenance of the turf course, no conversion will be necessary, thus saving money.  It’s there and it’s ready to be used.

By having a Meadowlands turf meet they can also save some of the fall staple stakes races such as the Cliffhanger (GIII) and the Violet Stakes (GIII), which always draw large fields.  The tradition of the Grey Ghost handicap on or around Halloween can also live on.  Turf racing always draws large fields and shippers from the New York and the Mid-Atlantic States.  Full fields will almost be assured.

How long would a Meadowlands Turf meet last, and when would it start?  I think an ideal time for a Meadowlands turf meet would be Labor Day through the end of the month, or sometime in October.  These are questions that would have to be worked out, but I think it’s something that should at the very least be explored.  I for one love turf racing and everything about it.  Other possible issues would be rain—how to handle weather situations is something that would have to be looked into.

A short turf meet would be nice—running Friday and Saturday under the lights.  By having a turf meet they could also find a way to save the Meadowlands biggest races—the Meadowlands Cup and/or the Pegasus—however, they would now become turf events.

The entire concept is quality over quantity.  If  New Jersey takes a look at this they could very well find a new niche at the Meadowlands for thoroughbreds—a short, but high quality turf meet in the fall—or late summer that will attract many horsemen.  A smart marketing campaign to promote this shorter but higher quality turf meet would also have to be explored.

Hopefully the new Monmouth Park meet with boosted purses and fewer dates will be a big success and New Jersey will have a premiere racing venue in the summer—making Monmouth Park thee place to be this spring and summer.  I think it has every opportunity to become a success especially with the issues currently facing the NYRA.  The time is right.

I also think a short turf meet at the Meadowlands could be a success.  It would be a shame to waste a perfectly fine turf course.

(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky will kick things off in the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s 2010 Kentucky Derby 12.  The 2-year-old Champion has yet to make his first start as a 3-year-old—and that could possibly come in either the San Felipe (GII) or the Rebel (GII). Lookin at Lucky had a solid 2-year-old campaign.  He ran a very close 2nd to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) after being wide most of the way.  He has a nice sit back and stalk type style of running.  He has a solid foundation under him and is still behind a lot of the others in the maturation department being a late May foal.  He is continuing to develop physically and mentally as a thoroughbred racehorse.  Bob Baffert will do everything he can to have him primed on Derby day—he knows how to do it. Lookin at Lucky has been drilling regularly—and for the dosage people—Lookin at Lucky is a dual-qualifier.  The biggest question with him is—will he move forward off his successful 2-year-old campaign, or digress? Lookin at Lucky has yet to run on dirt.  He will eventually face some of the other more highly regarded thoroughbreds this spring  | Next- Dirt Debut-Rebel (GII) 3/13

(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb)  Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter.  He will face better next time out in the Florida Derby, and will probably see Rule | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20

(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – The California Bred gelding stalked a few lengths behind Tiz Chrome and American Lion through splits of 23.27, 47.11, 1:11.25  and went past the highly rated colts at the top of the stretch on his way to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in a time of 1:41.75 for the mile and a sixteenth.  In winning Caracortado stayed perfect—improving his record to 5 wins from 5 starts.  He is a May foal that is still developing. Caracortado is Cat Dreams best runner so far that he has sired.  He could face Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII)—as well as Dave in Dixie again.  The San Felipe (GII) should give us a good idea of who is ready to make a stand as the top 3-year-old on the west coast | Next-San Felipe (GII) 3/13

(4) Dave In Dixie – Dixie Union – Risk by Wavering Monarch (Mar) Purchase $140,000  – Dave In Dixie ran out of ground in the Robert B. Lewis (GII) but was gaining on the winner—Caracortado.  This is a horse that should  do well as the races get longer.  He was able to rate well behind Tiz Chrome, American Lion and Caracortado—Dave in Dixie surged to the wire—striding nicely with a late rally, but ran out of room.  | Next-San Felipe (GII) 3/13

(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins.  He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others.  Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night.  He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances.  He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further.  He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby 3/20 or Wood Memorial (GI) 4/3

(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) Purchase Price  $110,000 – Odysseus is light in the experience department—but he makes up for that in the talent department.  He was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last month.  But still had to work a little in the race.  Nonetheless opened up to win easily in 1:44.37.  His final time was a tad slower then Rules (1:44.15)—however he was under wraps as he crossed the finish line.  As the spring rolls on Odysseus will face some more highly regarded horses—but not sure when that will be.  He should continue to mature and move forward off that big allowance win. | Next-Tampa Bay Derby (GII) 3/13

(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Another Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile | Next-UAE Derby 3/27

(8) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (April) Purchase Price $525,000 – Dublin has come along nicely since coming back from a procedure to correct a breathing problem.  He ran on strongly in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn—despite stumbling he surged to the wire and almost was able to get to Conveyance.  Trained by Kentucky Derby legend trainer D. Wayne Lukas—Dublin a son of dual classic winner Afleet Alex has now displayed the important ability to sit off the pace and make a sustained rall. Dublin is another that is a dual-qualifier.  D. Wayne Lukas has expressed confidence in his colt | Next-Rebel (GII) 3/13

(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(10) Tempted To Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He Stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted To Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Either Louisiana Derby (GII) or Sunland Derby (GIII)

(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – The talented Sidney’s Candy was the impressive winner of the San Vicente Stakes (GII) in February at Santa Anita.  He was able to snap off quick fractions and kept it going past the finish line, galloping out nicely.  No other horse in the race was able to make up any ground on him. Sidney’s Candy should be able to handle added distance—looked good after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has the potential to blossom as a legitimate Derby prospect—as he continues to develop as a 3-year-old.  Trainer John Sadler also has Dave In Dixie in his barn, which makes for a nice 1-2 Derby punch—whether they run in the same race next or stay separated remains to be seen | Next-San Felipe (GII) Possible 3/13

(12) D’Funnybone – D’wildcat – Elbow by Woodman (Jan) The Hutcheson (GII) winner rounds out the top 12. D’Funnybone stopped the clock in the Hutcheson (GII) in a snappy 1:22.14. D’Funnybone sat off fractions of 22.37, 45.10, 1:09.18 and held off the late charge of A Little Warm.  The speedy son of D’wildcat rated off the front runners and took command on his own turning for home.  He will need to show the ability to stretch that speed out further if he is going to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect.  For the dosage people, the good news is he is a dual qualifier—and has an experience edge being a January 14 foal.  Time will tell if he will be able to go long and if connections are willing to find out. Has a good 2-year-old foundation—for now he is on the list | Next Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI) 3/27

Knocking On The Door

****

Awesome Act-Gotham (GII) winner, Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead – Winner on dirt in first try—ran mile in 1:35.90, Miner’s Reserve – sharp maiden winner at Gulfstream—ran mile in 1:35.87, Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), American Lion – 3rd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One - Won 1st time out at Gulfstream nicely,  Super Saver - Rebel next (GII), Noble’s Promise – 3-year-old debut in Rebel (GII), Uptowncharlybrown – 3rd in Sam Davis (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby  next, Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next,  Eightyfiveinafifty- Speedy colt- Bolted in Whirlaway, Connemara – El Camino Real Derby (GIII) winner possible for Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite – Will have to show improvement-next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Sham (GIII) winner, Buddy’s Saint - Bad trip in FOY will try to bounce back, Backtalk - Louisiana (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – Working well for return in Rebel (GII), A Little Warm – 2nd to D’Funnybone in the Hutcheson (GII), Ron The Greek - 6th in Risen Star (GII), Drosselmeyer - 4th in Risen Star (GII)

(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky will kick things off in the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s 2010 Kentucky Derby 12.  The 2-year-old Champion has yet to make his first start as a 3-year-old—and that could possibly come in either the San Felipe (GII) or the Rebel (GII). Lookin at Lucky had a solid 2-year-old campaign.  He ran a very close 2nd to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) after being wide most of the way.  He has a nice sit back and stalk type style of running.  He has a solid foundation under him and is still behind a lot of the others in the maturation department being a late May foal.  He is continuing to develop physically and mentally as a thoroughbred racehorse.  Bob Baffert will do everything he can to have him primed on Derby day—he knows how to do it. Lookin at Lucky has been drilling regularly—and for the dosage people—Lookin at Lucky is a dual-qualifier.  The biggest question with him is—will he move forward off his successful 2-year-old campaign, or digress? Lookin at Lucky has yet to run on dirt.  He will eventually face some of the other more highly regarded thoroughbreds this spring  | Next-San Felipe (GII) or Rebel (GII)

(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb)  Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter.  He will face better next time out in the Florida Derby, and will probably see Rule | Next-Florida Derby (GI)

(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – The California Bred gelding stalked a few lengths behind Tiz Chrome and American Lion through splits of 23.27, 47.11, 1:11.25  and went past the highly rated colts at the top of the stretch on his way to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in a time of 1:41.75 for the mile and a sixteenth.  In winning Caracortado stayed perfect—improving his record to 5 wins from 5 starts.  He is a May foal that is still developing. Caracortado is Cat Dreams best runner so far that he has sired.  He could face Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII)—as well as Dave in Dixie again.  The San Felipe (GII) should give us a good idea of who is ready to make a stand as the top 3-year-old on the west coast | Next-San Felipe (GII)

(4) Dave In Dixie – Dixie Union – Risk by Wavering Monarch (Mar) Purchase $140,000  – Dave In Dixie ran out of ground in the Robert B. Lewis (GII) but was gaining on the winner—Caracortado.  This is a horse that should  do well as the races get longer.  He was able to rate well behind Tiz Chrome, American Lion and Caracortado—Dave in Dixie surged to the wire—striding nicely with a late rally, but ran out of room.  | Next-San Felipe (GII)

(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins.  He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others.  Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night.  He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances.  He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further.  He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI)

(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) Purchase Price  $110,000 – Odysseus is light in the experience department—but he makes up for that in the talent department.  He was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last month.  But still had to work a little in the race.  Nonetheless opened up to win easily in 1:44.37.  His final time was a tad slower then Rules (1:44.15)—however he was under wraps as he crossed the finish line.  As the spring rolls on Odysseus will face some more highly regarded horses—but not sure when that will be.  He should continue to mature and move forward off that big allowance win. | Next-Tampa Bay Derby (GII)

(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Another Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile | Next-Rebel-Wood or UAE Derby

(8) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (April) Purchase Price $525,000 – Dublin has come along nicely since coming back from a procedure to correct a breathing problem.  He ran on strongly in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn—despite stumbling he surged to the wire and almost was able to get to Conveyance.  Trained by Kentucky Derby legend trainer D. Wayne Lukas—Dublin a son of dual classic winner Afleet Alex has now displayed the important ability to sit off the pace and make a sustained rall. Dublin is another that is a dual-qualifier.  D. Wayne Lukas has expressed confidence in his colt | Next-Rebel (GII)

(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby Possible (GII)

(10) Tempted To Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He Stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted To Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Either Louisiana Derby (GII) or Sunland Derby (GIII)

(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – The talented Sidney’s Candy was the impressive winner of the San Vicente Stakes (GIII) in February at Santa Anita.  He was able to snap off quick fractions and kept it going past the finish line, galloping out nicely.  No other horse in the race was able to make up any ground on him. Sidney’s Candy should be able to handle added distance—looked good after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has the potential to blossom as a legitimate Derby prospect—as he continues to develop as a 3-year-old.  Trainer John Sadler also has Dave In Dixie in his barn, which makes for a nice 1-2 Derby punch—whether they run in the same race next or stay separated remains to be seen | Next-San Felipe (GII) Possible

(12) D’Funnybone – D’wildcat – Elbow by Woodman (Jan) The Hutcheson (GII) winner rounds out the top 12. D’Funnybone stopped the clock in the Hutcheson (GII) in a snappy 1:22.14. D’Funnybone sat off fractions of 22.37, 45.10, 1:09.18 and held off the late charge of A Little Warm.  The speedy son of D’wildcat rated off the front runners and took command on his own turning for home.  He will need to show the ability to stretch that speed out further if he is going to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect.  For the dosage people, the good news is he is a dual qualifier—and has an experience edge being a January 14 foal.  Time will tell if he will be able to go long and if connections are willing to find out. Has a good 2-year-old foundation—for now he is on the list | Next Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI)

Knocking On The Door

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Radiohead – winner on dirt in first try—ran mile in 1:35.90, Miner’s Reserve – sharp maiden winner at Gu