Dunkirk

Dunkirk

Mine That Bird

Charitable Man

Fabulous Strike

Fabulous Strike

Fabulous Strike

Strike Beats Benny The Bull

Fabulous Strike

F. Strike In The Winner’s Circle

Two Step Salsa

Benny The Bull

Better Talk Now

Better Talk Now

Cowboy Cal

Gio Ponti

Phil The Power

Munnings

Kensei

Kensei

Kensei

Hull

Hull

Munnings

JV After Win

Alan Garcia & Angel Cordero

Jockey Charity Snap Shot

What You Lookin At ?

Before True North

Jody MacDonald

Which Way?

Back Packed

Before Manhattan

The Hardware

Outside Betting Windows

Before The Manhattan

Summer Bird Wins The Belmont Stakes With A Strong Late Rally To Go Past Mine That Bird And Dunkirk…Dunkirk (ThoroughbredZones’s Pick) Runs A Solid 2nd After Leading Most Of The Way Fighting off Charitable Man Through The Stretch…Charitable Man Weakened In The Final Furlong To Finish 4th…Dunkirk Dug In Along The Rail And Looked Strong…Mine That Bird Made A Strong Rally Around The Bend And Took The Lead In The Stretch Dueling With A Determined Dunkirk… Before Summer Bird Surges  To Go By Both…

*****

Fabulous Strike Was Ready To Roll And Does Going All The Way In A Near Track Record At Belmont Park For 6 Furlongs  In The True North…Benny The Bull Can’t Get Him In His Return Race…Runs 2nd

2009 Belmont Stakes Video

ThoroughbredZone’s top  pick to win the Belmont Stakes is Dunkirk.  Dunkirk looks primed to make a strong bounce back run after his dull Kentucky Derby effort.   And a tremendous amount of respect to Mine That Bird who has every right to be pegged for the top spot in the Belmont Stakes. This is a tough call, and ThoroughbredZone has labored over this for awhile.  I really like MTB and it would be great for the sport, and to see Calvin Borel win all three Triple Crown races would be something else.  Below is a close up of each horse, and how they might do.  And further down are a few ways you might want to play these guys.
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Chocolate Candy: Chocolate Candy is an honest horse who has done all of his best running on a synthetic surface out in California.  He will be running for the first time tomorrow on a fast, dirt surface. (track could still be wet) He has been pointed to the Belmont Stakes since he finished the Kentucky Derby.  Super trainer Jerry Hollendorfer must be respected.  He has put some nice stamina-building works into this horse, and a solid effort is expected.  He was very wide in the Santa Anita Derby and still finished a fast rallying second to Pioneerof the Nile.  His Kentucky Derby race was a poor effort, but that race is throw out, like it’s been for so many other horses.  He will be making his 11th career start and has a good bottom to him.  He is a solid  finisher who should rebound off his Kentucky Derby effort.  User Under

Dunkirk: The Kentucky Derby was a disaster from start to finish.  The race is a complete toss.  The 3.7 million dollar purchase has class, and talent.  ThoroughbredZone covered his debut race back in January.  He ran a powerful race against the top rated and ThoroughbredZone’s #1 Kentucky Derby Prospect Quality Road in the Florida Derby back in March.  He launched a powerful move to hook and pass Quality Road, who was able to dig in and turn Dunkirk back on a very speed-favoring surface.  Dunkirk did gallop out past Quality Road in the Florida Derby, which was a positive sign.  There is no doubt that Quality Road was the best 3-year-old colt in the land at the time.  Connections skipped the Preakness Stakes for the Belmont Stakes.  Dunkirk has had three published workouts since the Kentucky Derby.  He has had two fast breezes, followed by a slower breeze.  And another positive sign is the fact that Todd Pletcher has indicated he has gained some weight since the Kentucky Derby.  He looks sharp and ready to go.  A much-improved effort is expected in the Belmont Stakes.  Top Selection

Mr. Hot Stuff: He had a disaster of trip in the Kentucky Derby.  He has still yet to run on a fast dirt surface.  He has been working well over the Keeneland poly surface.  He ran a good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but still would have to take it up several notches here to be considered a legitimate threat for top prize.  However, he is eligible to improve in his first try on a fast dirt track.  He looks to be a late developer.  User Under

Summer Bird: Summer Bird is a lightly raced colt.  He will add blinkers for the first time in the Belmont Stakes.  He was closing well in the Arkansas Derby at a mile and an eighth at Oaklawn in April.  The Kentucky Derby was a disaster, as it was for so many others.  He would still have to improve a great deal to win.  A strong pace and a late kick will help his cause.  He should be a square price.  10-cent supers will be on the betting menu for the Belmont Stakes, and this horse fits the bill in the fourth spot at a big price. User Under

Luv Gov: He is one of two D. Wayne Lukas colts ready for action.  He should be one of the early pacesetters along with Miner’s Escape.  Luv Gov will me making his 12th career start, but he has yet to run a race that would indicate he could win a race of this magnitude.  Luv Gov will go as far as he can on, or near the lead.  Hanging in there late will be difficult.  Sports a good 6 furlong work since the Preakness Stakes.   Not Using

Charitable Man: The runaway winner of the Peter Pan Stakes last month is clearly the talk of the Belmont Stakes.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has exuded confidence in him, stating that he would not change places with anyone.  He will be making his third start off a lengthy layoff.  He is eligible to improve, but ran a strong race in the Peter Pan just a month ago.  He will have to come back and run another strong race to win the Belmont Stakes.  He was behind a hot pace set by Hello Broadway in the Peter Pan, who eventually faded.  Charitable Man looks like he could be on or near the lead in a stalking position.  At some point during the stretch, he should have the lead, but will have to fend off Dunkirk and the hard charging Mine That Bird.  That final furlong could be his undoing.  Talent is there, and the confident connections are a plus.  He is an interesting prospect.  There are a combination of pros and cons with this horse.  User Under

Mine That Bird: The upset Kentucky Derby winner, and hard charging runner-up in the Preakness Stakes is ready to give it another go in the mile and a half Belmont Stakes.  And there is nothing to indicate he will not be ready to make another power packed late run.  He proved his class in the Preakness running behind the best 3-year-old filly in the land Rachel Alexandra.  He is a well-seasoned gelding who raced as a 2-year-old.  Calvin Borel is extremely confident in this horse ability and has already stated he is the winner.  In addition, ThoroughbredZone is confident in his ability.  Mine That Bird is the most likely winner if Dunkirk cannot stay on for the mile and a half.  If he once again comes with that same strong kick, he has shown in his two previous races, he is a huge threat to win two thirds of the Triple Crown.  He has more pros than cons, of any other horse in the race.  Who ever has the lead late will have to fend him off.  Being a May foal, this guy might actually be getting better at this time of year.  Some have indicated he is not a wise win play as a favorite, which is not the wisest way to handle the best horse in the race.   I hope he runs well.  User On Top And Under

Flying Private: The other D. Wayne Lukas entry.  One of only two horses in the Belmont Stakes to run in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.  The other being Mine That Bird.  This horse has been improving throughout the spring.  He had some issues in the stretch of the Preakness Stakes, yet finished strongly to finish fourth.  The Derby was a disaster and a throw out race.  He will be making his 13th start of his career in the Belmont Stakes, making him the most experienced horse in the race.  He also fired off a career best speed figure in the Preakness Stakes.  Another strong rally in the long Belmont Stretch, and he could make an impact.  I feel this horse could pose the biggest upset threat of any horse in the race.  D. Wayne Lukas has had success in the Belmont Stakes with four wins.  Flying Private has all the indications he is ready to run another good race.   User, and If he is better than 10/1…A Saver win bet.

Miner’s Escape:  Miner’s Escape is coming off a front-running win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 2, 2009.  There is little doubt he will be forwardly placed right out of the gate in the Belmont Stakes, to help set up a late run of Brave Victory, who is by the same owner Robert LaPenta and trained by Nick Zito.  Nick Zito has been the man in recent years with upset wins in the Belmont Stakes, and both of his horses tomorrow will be over bet.  Miner’s Escape will go as far as he can on the front end, and looks to duplicate Da’Tara’s front running Belmont win of a year ago.  To say that for him to go gate to wire in an impossibility might be an over statement, but that is exactly what the plans are with him.  He has a good foundation and you know Nick has had his eyes on the Belmont for a while.  User Under

Brave Victory: The other half of the uncoupled Nick Zito/Robert LaPenta entry.  Brave Victory will be making his fourth start off a layoff, and looks to be cycling to a top effort in the Belmont Stakes.  He has had two nice breezes since his good third place finish to Charitable Man in the Peter Pan Stakes.  Another move forward is more than possible, as Nick Zito has probably mapped out a path to the Belmont Stakes some time ago. A top effort is expected.  Whether that top effort is good enough for the win remains to be seen, but an on the board finish is not out of the question for Nick Zito who knows how to get one ready for the Belmont.  Both of Nick Zito’s horses will probably be over bet considering his recent success in the Belmont Stakes.  User Under

Belmont Stakes Plays

Dunkirk - Top Pick For The Win

Dunkirk-Mine That Bird Exacta Box

Flying Private - Saver Win Bet

10-Cent Supers are on the betting menu, and they offer an opportunity to spread around with some price horses.  So going with the 10-super could very well be a way to go…

2,7 / 1,2,6,7,8,9,10  /1,3,4,8,9,10 / 1,3,4,8,9,10  $28

And a Super Saver Play With Belmont Boys On Top

8,9,10/8,9,10/2,6,7/2,6,7  $3.60

All in all a real blockbuster day of racing at Belmont Park.  6 stakes races.  The True North, Just A Game, Woody Stephens, Acorn, Manhattan and The Belmont Stakes to cap it off.  There is also a 1 million dollar Pick 4 and Pick 6.

Fabulous Strike looks primed in the True North…

We will give some updates at Belmont if there is anything of importance.  Also try to get some tweets from the paddock if any horse in particular stands out.  And an eye will be on Monmouth Park of course. 

Calvin Borel guided him to his favorite place, the rail, and Mine That Bird did the rest, surging past Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man, over a sloppy track to score the mammoth upset at 50/1.

I could not believe it.

Mine that Bird won the Kentucky Derby!

How stunning was this Kentucky Derby?

He was disregarded by just about everyone and anyone.

Obscure trainer Bennie Woolley Jr was reserved, and confident before the race, as he was being interviewed as he hobbled along on crutches during the walkover.

They knew they a had a horse, that was ready to deliver a big effort, but big enough to win the Kentucky Derby?

The most amazing part about this story was his purchase price.

Mine that Bird only cost an amazing bargain basement price of only$9,500! As a yearling…He was later re-sold for $400,000 by his current owners after his success in Canada.

Regardless the orginal purchase price was a bargain.  Who would have thunk it?

A $9,500 purchase zoomed home to win the Kentucky Derby!

In contrast, the $3.700,000 Dunkirk purchase ran up the track.

The rest of the field’s purchase prices totaled more than a whopping $8, 7000,000 combined!

A $9,500 gelding out ran them all.

He stormed up the rail like a rocket

Irony at it’s absolute best.

Here comes something up the rail!

He is rolling!

It is over!

This horse is moving, the race is over

Who is it?

Who is it?

Tom Durkin did not even know.

Holy cow, it’s Mine that Bird!

Holy cow, what a shocker!

Mine that Bird just delivered one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.

In fact, it is one of the biggest upsets in sports history period!

A 9,500 purchase, disregarded by public, roared past over $8,700,000 worth wonderfully bred thoroughbred’s for fun.

This was certainly one of the wildest days in Kentucky Derby history as well.

Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge was scratched early in the morning.  Another disappointment, in a spring where there were plenty of those.

We heard all about the contenders repeatedly.

The pros and cons of each.

It rained all night, and the track was sloppy and sealed.

It was a big handicapping mind bender.

Never can I remember a Kentucky Derby with as many unknown elements as this one.

In the end it was the 50/1 Mine that Bird who posted the shocking upset.

***I Want Revenge Scratched From Kentucky Derby***

ThoroughbredZone Picks I Want Revenge to Win Kentucky Derby 135

My original pick was going to be Quality Road. He did not make it. Another quarter crack derailed his Derby bid.

Kentucky Derby 135 Contender Close-Up /strong>

Dunkirk is a horse that has garnered my respect for various reasons. He made a bold move in the Florida Derby to collar and pass the super-talented Quality Road, in what I thought was the best Derby prep of the year. He ran that race on a very speed-favoring surface, and still made a strong rally. This 3.7 million dollar purchase will be making only his fourth career start in tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby. Dunkirk has been working strongly in Florida, and looks to be set for a big effort. He will have to buck history to win this race though. He is unraced as a 2-year-old, and no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without a race as a 2-year-old. The other side is he could very well move forward in making his fourth career start. He is moving towards that I feel. In fact, he actually galloped out past Quality Road, after the race was over, in the Florida Derby. The 5-week break has been successful over the past few years—both Barbaro and Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby coming off 5-week breaks. He is a fresh horse. However, the biggest concern I have with him is experience. Does he have enough seasoning? He has fired that big move in all three career starts. He will have to avoid traffic issues. I expect him to again fire it tomorrow, and that makes him a contender. A lot of horses will be going backwards, as he begins his rally.

There are few threats for the top spot in this race. At one time, I honestly considered Pioneerof the Nile as the big player, and he still could very well be. He has a few things to like; he is a seasoned horse with a solid 2-year-old foundation. Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for this race. He has won the Derby three times. I thought long and hard about it, but there is one nagging, overwhelming question that has not been answered yet—he has yet to run on dirt. How will he like it?  Can the Kentucky Derby top pick be a horse making his first career start on dirt? That is a risky proposition for any handicapper. I Want Revenge and Papa Clem both excelled when they switched to dirt (from the poly track) for the first time. Pioneerof the Nile has defeated both on the poly track. Can he do it tomorrow on a natural surface? Maybe he will run big on it, and maybe not.  He won his prep races in workman like fashion, nothing spectacular. He is in shape and ready. Anyway, you look at this horse; he is a risk as a top pick on dirt, but there are things to like about him.  As a May foal, he is catching up to some of the others in the maturation department.  That being said, he must prove he is the goods on dirt, in the toughest race of his short career.

Top Pick

ThoroughbredZone’s Top Selection To Win The Kentucky Derby 135

I Want Revenge

The question of who can get the mile-and-a-quarter is always one of the most important factors in the Kentucky Derby. When I selected Barbaro to win the Kentucky Derby, I did so confident in knowing he would be able to get the distance. Tomorrow there is one horse in particular that I strongly feel will get the mile-and-a-quarter. I Want Revenge is that horse. He galloped out strongly after the Wood Memorial, in a race where he had to overcome several obstacles to win. He overcame a bad break, and a wall of horses blocked his path in the stretch. He fought through the wall, found a seam, and finished full of run to win.  He kept on going nicely after the wire, well past a mile-and-a-quarter. He powered home to victory in his dirt debut in the Gotham stakes back in March. He ran with Mr. Fantasy most of the way, before putting him away in the stretch. Mr. Fantasy since that race, has comeback to win the The Withers in impressive fashion last Saturday. Mr. Fantasy is a quality thoroughbred with a bright future. He did not look that great before the Withers, but anyway you look at it, I Want Revenge ran away from him earning a huge speed figure in his dirt debut. I Want Revenge is a battled tested thoroughbred. He raced as a 2-year-old giving him a solid foundation. He battled through a wall of horses in the stretch in the Wood Memorial to win. He is gutsy, and without a doubt a mile-and-a-quarter is right up his ally. This horse can get the distance, and that is half the battle. IEAH liked him so much after the Gotham that they purchased significant interest in him.  He comes into the Kentucky Derby with the right profile. He went through his prep races perfectly setting him up for another big effort tomorrow. He will be running in the stretch strongly. I Want Revenge is ThoroughbredZone’s top selection to win Kentucky Derby 135.

Kentucky Derby Betting Prospects…Use or Not Use?

West Side Bernie: Ran second to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Breaks from the dreaded one hole in tomorrow’s race. He should be big odds, and at 40/1 or better, could get up for a piece if everything goes right. User Under In Triples

Musket Man: Horse has done nothing but win. Connections insist he can run all day. I still feel the mile-and-quarter is out of his reach, and the two hole is a bad post. He will have to get position early. Not Using

Mr. Hot Stuff: A big rally type horse making his first career start on dirt, he could go off as high as 70/1. His style dictates he could come late passing tiring horses for a piece. User Under In Triples

Advice: A closer who came from back in the pack to win the Lexington Stakes. If you are looking for that big priced horse under in supers and or triples, you can consider him in the bottom of those tickets. User Under In Triples

Hold Me Back: Another rally horse that has who will be making his 3^rd start off the layoff, another horse who very well could be passing tired rivals late. User Under In Triples

Friesan Fire: This horse has been flying under the radar. FF is confirmed slop lover, rolling home in the Louisiana Derby in the slop. Dangerous off the layoff for Larry Jones and has been working very well. Should not be to far out of it.  He has never been past a mile-and-sixteenth – Saver win bet, if the track comes up sloppy. User Under In Triples and Exactas

Papa Clem: Arkansas Derby winner worked a real fast 3-furlong blowout. A very fast work a couple of days before the Derby is a little concern.  I like his breeding. User Under In Triples and Exactas

Mine That Bird: Over matched in this race. He should go off over 70/1. Would be a very tall order for an in the money finish. Not Using

Join The Dance: Only one of two confirmed speed horses who will go right to lead with Regal Ransom. Certainly a pace factor, but that should be it. Not Using

Regal Ransom: The other confirmed front-runner in the race. Winner UAE Derby in front running fashion. Could be a threat to stay on longer, if he can shake off Join the Dance.  He could also sit right off Join the Dance.  He is an interesting prospect. A sloppy track could aid his chances. User Under In Triples and Exactas- Saver Win Bet

Chocolate Candy: Made a strong rally in the Santa Anita Derby when rallying from last and wide. He finished right behind Pioneerof the Nile. He has a style that could get him a piece.  Never raced on dirt. User Under In Exactas and Triples

General Quarters: Feel good story of this years Kentucky Derby.  Bluegrass Stakes winner faces a daunting task in being a huge player tomorrow. A former $20,000 maiden claimer will be hard pressed to win the Derby. Not Using.

I Want Revenge: ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Kentucky Derby. Solid foundation who is battled tested and should have no issue going the distance. He has blossomed since switching to dirt. Top Pick To Win

Atomic Rain: He just got in at the last second, faces a daunting task in the Derby. Has some tactical speed. Not Using.

Dunkirk: One of the main contenders tomorrow. Has run great in all three career starts, should make a strong late rally. A threat to win it if he fires his best shot  Dangerous. User Under In Exactas

Pioneerof the Nile: The biggest puzzle of the race. You go either with, or against. Is he fast enough one of his biggest question? Based on the success of Baffert and the fact he is a May foal , he has upside. First try on dirt in the Derby.  User Under in Exactas

Summer Bird: Fourth career start tomorrow. Ran third in the Arkansas Derby. A come from behind rally type horse. If all goes right, could pick off tiring horses in the stretch. Will be a huge price of 60/1 or better. User Under in Triples

Nowhere to Hide: Zito sneaks in at the last second with a horse who looks over matched on paper. Ran decent in the Risen Star and Tampa Bay Derby. Zito has pulled off shockers in the past, this would be the biggest of them all. Under in Triples

Desert Party: The other Godolphin owned thoroughbred in the race. Ran second in the UAE Derby in March. Two solid works, and will be off the pace and make a bid. I would not totally ignore. User Under in Exactas

Flying Private: Wayne Lukas is back! Flying Private ran second in the Lane’s End at Turfway back in March, and was a non-threatening 5^th in the Arkansas Derby. Outclassed for the top spot, but underneath at 60/1 would make anyone’s ticket nice. User Under in Triples

Top Pick To Win

13

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Play

13 / 6,7,10,11,15,16,19 / 1,3,4,5,11,17,18,20    $49 Bet

Kentucky Derby Exacta Box Play

10,13,15,19,20   $20 Bet

Saver win bets on Regal Ransom and Desert Party…Regal Ransom should be 20/1- 25/1 and Desert Party should be 10/1 – 15/1…

Good Luck!!

ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby Contest

1)(2) I Want Revenge – Stephen Got Even - Meguial (Arg) By Roy (Mar) ($95,000)   I Want Revenge takes over the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12. He followed up his impressive Gotham win with another big effort in the Wood Memorial.  The amazing trip of I Want Revenge has been hot topic in the racing world for some time, breaking last out of the gate, fought traffic issues in the stretch and drew clear to win the Wood Memorial in impressive fashion.  The question of whether he can handle traffic was answered with a resounding yes.  It was a super effort for this horse that had overcame a few obstacles to win the race.  Jockey Joe Talamo say’s he only had to run hard late.  4-weeks to recover should be plenty.  It would be hard to top his Wood effort.  Did he run his best race?  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:49.  His poly races were good, but not good enough to get by Pioneerof the Nile.  He proved he loves dirt, by running two huge races on it.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation.  He galloped out nicely after he hit the wire in the Wood Memorial.  Is he fast enough?  That is the question as with most.  Distance should not be an issue.  He can get the mile and a quarter.  He has more positives than negatives at this point.

2)(3) Pioneerof the Nile - Empire Maker – Star of Goshen By Lord at War (May) ($290,000)  Pioneerof the Nile moves up a slot to the #2 position.  He has kind of been flying under the radar out west, but the horse has accomplished some good things.  Horse has a good foundation.  He raced as a 2-year-old, and swept through the California preps in good, workman like fashion.  He looks like he would like a faster pace, but has shown the ability to get into the race if need be.  He is maturing at the right time.  He was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby in 1.49.17 for the mile and an eighth.  He is a May foal which puts him behind others in the maturation department.  Another plus is the fact both I Want Revenge and Papa Clem came back to win the Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby.  That has to be viewed as a positive.  Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby.  He knows how to get a horse ready to run a big one on that day.  The nagging question of whether he will handle dirt still exists, and there have been some who say dirt is not his preferred surface.  He could just be a poly specialist.  Anyway, you look at it, this guy has a few more positives, than negatives at this point.  The only real question is, will he be fast enough on dirt?

3)(4) Dunkirk – Unbridled’s Song – Secret Status By A.P. Indy (Jan) ($3.7 Million) The lightly raced Team Tabor horse looks like he will make it into the field for the Kentucky Derby after all.  Graded earnings have been a big issue.  He ran a bold race in the Florida Derby when he went after and caught Quality Road, and passed him briefly, but was turned back.  Dunkirk will go into the Derby lightly raced.  The Kentucky Derby will be only his 4th career start, and it will be at a mile and a quarter in a 20-horse field.  Curlin and Big Brown were both lightly raced and turned in big efforts.  Is Dunkirk as good as those are?  Another obstacle is his foundation; he did not race a 2-year-old.  Neither did Curlin.  The flip side for Dunkirk is he could have very well not run his top race yet.  His big sweeping move in the Florida Derby was a power move going against a track that did favor speed.  He looked like a winner, passing Quality Road, but could not match Quality Road’s big late kick. He will appreciate a quick pace up front, so he can launch his big move.  Todd Pletcher has had little success in the Derby, but at the same time has not had a horse good enough to win it.  This 3.7 million dollar colt looks like he will make a late bid.  He has class to garner a price tag like that.  He galloped out nicely after the Florida Derby.  Connections won the Roses with Thunder Gulch.

4)(5)Papa Clem – Smart Strike – Miss Houdini By Mr. Prospector (Feb) (Home Bred) Papa Clem debuts in the #4 spot after his big Arkansas Derby win.  He finally got a fast dirt surface and responded with a big effort to defeat Old Fashioned.  He had finished behind Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge out west.  He was off a moderately fast pace set by Old Fashioned and surged by to stop the clock in 1:49.01 for the mile and an eighth.  It was a big effort and a big win for this colt.  A son of the super Smart Strike showed his admiration for the dirt with a gutsy win.  He will get 3-weeks to rest up for the Kentucky Derby.  One has to wonder how much the race might have taken out of him 3-weeks before the Derby.  Smart Strike has been one of the hottest sires in recent years.  Stalk-Rally type should not be that far out of it.

5)(6) Chocolate Candy - Candy Ride - Crownette By Seattle Slew (Feb)  Chocolate Candy was the runner up finish to Pioneerof the Nile in the San Anita Derby.  He was in last place as he entered the top of the stretch and was very wide  around the turn for home.  He  made a game bid in the middle of the track to try and get Pioneerof the Nile.  He made up a ton of ground in a short period while enduring a very wide trip.  He was gradually making up ground on the winner in the end, but was not going to get him.  It was a big move anyway you look at it.  He will enter the Derby making his first career start on dirt.  He will be making his 10th career starts overall, which gives him some good seasoning.  If moves forward the way Papa Clem and I Want Revenge did, he could make his presence felt late in the stretch at Churchill.  Jerry Hollendorfer likes his horse.  The only question some might have, has he ran his best race already.  The nagging poly to dirt question is still there.  Will he be as good on dirt, as he is on poly?  He is one of several horses that likes to come from out of it.  A fast pace will be to his liking.  He looks like he is good for the distance.  Coming together at the right time.

6)(7) Friesan Fire – A.P. Indy – Bollinger (AUS) By Dehere (Apr) ($725,000)  Friesan Fire is the last bullet remaining for Larry Jones after his top prospect Old Fashioned got injured in the Arkansas Derby, ending his Derby hopes and possibly his career.  He is in uncharted territory going into the Kentucky Derby off a 7-week layoff.  Another factor is he has never run past a mile and sixteenth.  His last win was in the slop in the Louisiana Derby, in what was a strong effort.  This horse seems to have a few serious questions as to whether he will be capable of winning a mile and a quarter race off such a long layoff.  He loved the Fairgrounds, that is one thing we know.  Larry Jones has been runner-up in the 2 previous Kentucky Derby’s. He was running on very well through the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, but a mile and a quarter is still a long way to go.  How ironic would be if this guy does it, the least hyped horse of his others in recent years?   Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Old Fashioned.  The mile and a quarter will be a daunting task.  Larry Jones took Hard Spun to the Derby off a 6-week layoff.

7)(8) General Quarters - Sky Mesa - Ecology By Pulpit (Mar) ($20,000)  The feel good story of the 2009 so far.  Claimed for only $20,000 after his first career race, he is Louisville bound.  He won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, but backed that up with an improbable win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.  Sent off at 14/1 he delivered a great effort in winning.  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:26.  He has a good foundation under him.  You can truly say this horse has gone from rags to riches.  He was claimed for $20,000 and goes on to win the GI $750,000 Bluegrass Stakes.  His chances at Churchill look daunting, but this horse has done nothing but surprise people on his way there.  How good is this horse is the biggest question?  Charismatic the 1999 Kentucky Derby winner raced for a tag early in his career.  A $20,000 Investment has paid off in many ways.  Distance and class will be his biggest obstacles in Louisville.

8)(9) Hold Me Back - Giants Causeway - Restraint By Storm Cat (Apr) ($400,000)  He won the Lane’s End coming from far back.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start since he was in the Remsen back in November at Aqueduct.  Room for further progression exists.  He made a strong move at the end of Bluegrass to earn the 2nd place finish.  He has run on dirt before, but has not been as good as he has on Poly.  At the same time, those dirt races were a while ago.  Another horse who likes to come from out of it with a strong late kick.  Will he be as good on dirt, as he is on poly?  Connections are happy.

9)(10) Musket Man – Yonaguska – Fortuesque By Fortunate Prospect (May) If  General Quarters is the feel good story of the year, Musket Man is the bargain of the year.  A $15,000 yearling purchase, and re-sold for $35,000 as a 2-year-old sale.  He has gone on to do some good things.  Musket Man broke his maiden at Belmont Park on Breeders’ Cup day.  Since that day he has gone on to win the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby.  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:91.  Musket Man is another horse with New Jersey roots.  Trainer Derek Ryan is a Monmouth Park guy, and Musket Man trained at Monmouth Park before he was shipped to Belmont Park for his debut.  Musket Man has been well worth every bargain penny spent on him.  The Kentucky Derby poses many tough questions for the son of Yonaguska.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 7th lifetime start.  A mile and a quarter could be a bit to far, and the other question is if he is actually fast enough?  Big questions to answer, but he will be there to try to answer.  Winner of 5 of 6 races he has been in.

10)(11) West Side Bernie – Bernstein – Time Honored By Storm Cat (Feb) ($50,000) The second place finisher to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial.  The effort was enough to stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.  Owned by the New Jersey crew of George and Loris Hall, and trained by Monmouth Park mainstay and top trainer Kelly Breen, West Side Bernie has strong New Jersey roots, as does Musket Man.  He broke his maiden at Monmouth Park.  He was on even terms with I Want Revenge for a brief second, as I Want Revenge swung out for running room in the stretch, but was no match for him in the final 100 yards.   That being said he ran a good race.  The Lane’s End was a clunker.  You could chalk that up to the synthetic surface, as many horses just do not care for it.  Distance and class look to be the main obstacles facing him at Churchill Downs.  The horse earned a spot, and he will run.

11)(12) Regal Ransom – Distorted Humor – Kelli’s Ransom by Red Ransom ($675,000)  Regal Ransom broke his maiden at Saratoga and was eventually shipped to Dubai for the rest of his campaign.  He was an upset winner over stable mate Desert Party in the UAE Derby in March.   Again, they have yet to have a horse that is good enough to win the Derby.  That could very well be the case here.  He ran a big race just a few weeks ago.  Running a race good enough to win the Kentucky Derby will be a tall order.  The Derby will be his 5th lifetime start.  He has breeding that indicates the distance will not be an issue.  He will go to the lead and go as far as he can in a race that looks to lack speed.  He could be out there for awhile with his expected front running gambit.

12)(-) Desert Party – Street Cry – Sage Cat By Machiavellian (Apr) ($425,000) One of two Sheikh Mohammed thoroughbreds entered in the Derby. He ran 2nd in the UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup Day.  Since shipping to Churchill Downs he has settled in nicely and has looked good in the mornings.  He will sit off the pace a bit, as his stable mate Regal Ransom will go to the front and make a front running gambit, going as far as he can.  Connections have had limited success with Kentucky Derby entrants.  Worldly Manner made a strong bid in the 1999 Kentucky Derby.  At one point looked like a stretch to be a factor, but is coming along nicely and some respect should given to him.

ThoroughbredZone will preview the Kentucky Derby and give it’s selection to win the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby…Many things can still happen, post position, pace and track conditions are all factors.

The biggest tweaks this week…Quality Road keeps his spot on top at #1… The Pamplemousse moves up to the #2 slot…Friesan Fire dips to the #3 spot…Dunkirk moves up to #4 from #7…Regal Ransom debuts at 11…Desert Party dips down to the #12 spot…Win Willy moves up to the #10 spot from #12 …And a few others dipped one spot…Patena Drops off…Mr. Fantasy has been taken off the trial…Beethoven out do to a leg injury.

1)(1) Quality Road – Elusive Quality – Kobla By Strawberry Road (AUS) (Mar) (Home Bred) Quality Road solidified his spot a top ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12 with a stirring win in the Florida Derby over a game Dunkirk.  Making just his 4th career start and first start around two-turns, Quality Road settled nicely behind the pace setter Casey’s on Call through a relatively quick pace for a mile and an eighth.  Quality Road entered the stretch with a lead that looked in jeopardy, as Dunkirk launched a powerful move from back in the pack to range up and pass Quality Road, but Quality Road who had been cruising along, was asked for more and responded with a powerful kick to repel Dunkirk and draw clear to break the track record for a mile and eighth in 1.47:72.  The win topped his prior effort, which was huge in the Fountain of Youth, where he ran This Ones For Phil into submission through fast fractions, who, in the race before the Florida Derby, the Swale Stakes, came back to run a huge race against Big Drama.  Some complaints have been raised about the track having a strong speed bias, however the argument falls short to an extent, considering everyone ran over the same surface and Quality Road is a very fast horse, and has run fast in every one of his races.  Quality Road had to fend off a powerful move by Dunkirk and came home in 12.44 seconds.  Theregoesjojo finished third, who had to check, at the top of the lane was no threat to Quality Road.  Quality Road will enter the Kentucky Derby off a 5-week break, which has been a successful move in recent years.  The 5 week break will be a good thing for him.  He showed grit and determination in turning back Dunkirk.  The win was impressive in many ways.  The question will arise if he might have peaked to soon, but from everything we have seen, there is nothing to indicate that he will not continue to run well, as he is a large, talented colt.

2)(3) The Pamplemousse – Kafwain – Comfort Zone By Rubiano (Apr) ($80,000) Moves up to the #2 spot.  The Pamplemousse is working towards the Santa Anita Derby.  Looked sharp in The Sham.  The Pamplemousse was on cruise control from the start and turned back any threat in winning, setting swift fractions of 23.08 and 46.51.  He ran the one and one eighth distance in 1:47.86.  Great looking son of Kafwain might be one of the better ones to come out of California in recent years.  Trainer Julio Canani exudes confidence when speaking of him.  A showdown with Pioneerof The Nile this Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby will be a key race.  This race will tell us a lot.  Sports a win a mile and an eighth.  If all goes well, will head to Kentucky with no dirt prep, always an interesting factor.

3)(2) Friesan Fire – A.P. Indy – Bollinger (AUS) By Dehere (Apr) ($725,000) Dips down to number #3.  Friesan Fire continues to roll along on the derby trail, and continues to get better and better.   He has been playing second fiddle to Old Fashioned his stable mate throughout the early part of the year, but he stepped out of that shadow with a dominating win in The Louisiana Derby in the slop.  Friesan Fire swept all three Fairground Derby preps.  There is no telling how much more he will improve, and he will have to.  Larry Jones has brought him along nicely, and at this point he should be respected.   He looks like he will be able to get a mile and quarter, but has yet to run past a mile and sixteenth. The Kentucky Derby look like his next race.

4)(7) Dunkirk – Unbridled’s Song – Secret Status By A.P. Indy (Jan) ($3.7 Million) Dunkirk moves up to the #4 spot after his game effort in the Florida Derby.  In his first class test the $3.7 million dollar colt showed his class in launching a huge bid around a speed-favoring surface to get to Quality Road at the top of the stretch.  The move was impressive, but he was unable to beat Quality Road.  Dunkirk is lightly raced, and showed a lot of courage.  It looked like he was going to go by Quality Road with a full head of steam and open up.  Getting into the Derby might be an issue with the lack of graded earnings, but is still a possibility. It was a strong race in his first true test.  The Preakness Stakes and or Belmont Stakes look like races he will target.  The potential for Dunkirk down the road is there for some good things to happen.

5)(4) Pioneerof the Nile – Empire Maker – Star of Goshen By Lord at War (May) ($290,000) The late May foal got the job done once again in winning the San Felipe.  Up closer to the pace, something he has not really done in the past and fought off challengers late in the race.  It was a workman like performance.  One thing we do know, he is a little further behind in the maturation department to some of the other colts, being a late May foal, and Bob Baffert is aware of that.  He will meet The Pamplemousse Saturday.  It will be his biggest class test to date.  The nagging question of whether he will handle dirt remains, and will be a question right up until post time on the first Saturday in May.  Needs to improve further along, and there is room for that.  The Pamplemousse is waiting.

6)(5) I Want Revenge - Stephen Got Even – Meguial (Arg) By Roy (Mar) ($95,000) I Want Revenge made his first effort on dirt a winning one.  He ran in tandem with Mr. Fantasy throughout much of the race, until mid stretch, when he opened up and pulled away from him.  I Want Revenge looked impressive in the win, running through moderate fractions and finished up strongly.  He was in an all out drive, and put together a big effort.  I still think it was somewhat of a hard race to judge.  Going a mile and an eighth next time will tell us more.  A Solid 2-year-old foundation also gives him upside.  He certainly enjoyed the dirt.   This Saturday is show time in the Wood Memorial.  Off the plane and in to the starting gate.

7)(6) Old Fashioned – Unbridled’s Song – Collect Call By Meadowlake (Jan) ($800,000) Old Fashioned suffered his first setback in the Rebel.  It looked as if he was going to win by a country mile turning for home under confident handling, but that was not the case as he could not keep up his fast pace late.  Old Fashioned flattened out and finished second to the up start Win Willy.  The race leaves a lot of questions, the biggest being if distance will be his undoing.  He did race right behind a fast pace set by Silver City and put him away, but it took its toll on him late.  However, not ready to throw him out just yet as a viable Kentucky Derby threat.  Larry Jones knows that the race that means the most is in Louisville.  The Rebel was certainly not a must win situation at all.  He has been bringing him along slowly.  Larry Jones is working him up to that race.  The Arkansas Derby will be a critical race for him nonetheless.  Seeing him slow down late in the lane was not a positive, but all hope is not lost with this talented colt.  However will need to run a very solid race next out to get some of that luster back.  Terry Thompson will replace Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.

8)(9) Theregoesjojo – Brahms – Slewie Blues By Seattle Slew (Apr) ($42,000) Theregoesjojo finished 3rd to Quality Road in their rubber match in the Florida Derby.  Rating behind, he launched a bid turning for home in an attempt to catch Quality Road.  He had to check, and was unable to regain his momentum, as he was past by Quality Road.  An objection was launched, but was dismissed.  It was a good effort, but was no match for the top 2 this time.  Rating further behind might be the best strategy for this colt.  A mile and a quarter could also be a question.  The other problem facing Theregoesjojo is the lack of graded earnings.  He might be looking at the Preakness Stakes.

9)(10) Imperial Council – Empire Maker – Jaramar Rain By Thunder Gulch (Jan) ($130,000) He finally decided to do some running after the race was just about over passing a weakening Mr. Fantasy.  It certainly looks like this one will like the longer distances, but in a race like this with a runaway winner, hard to judge how good he is.  He was the only horse in the field to get in the picture late.  The Wood will answer some questions on whether he will be a factor in Kentucky.  He will need to run a big one to get there.  He should appreciate a faster pace.  Gotham still left a lot of questions.  He will get to answer some those questions in the Wood Memorial.  He also gets another crack at I Want Revenge.

10(12) Win Willy – Monarchos – City Fair By Carson City (Apr) ($25,000) Bumped up to the #10 spot. You have to love that name.  Win Willy literally came out of nowhere to win the Rebel in stunning fashion, rolling home in the middle of Oaklawn’s track to surge by Old Fashioned.  It was his first try going long and it was a big success.  He took advantage of the early fast pace set by Silver City.  Logical next step would be the Arkansas Derby.  Questions remain if he can do it again.  He will get that chance again soon enough.

11)(-) Regal Ransom – Distorted Humor – Kelli’s Ransom by Red Ransom ($675,000) Debuts in the  # 11 spot with his upset win over Desert Party.  He had been on the knocking on the door list, so we let him in after the win.  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1:50.00.  He was able to hold off Desert Party who tried to cut into his lead.  Regal Ransom will probably be pointed to the Kentucky Derby.  The Derby will be his 5th career start, and to be a factor, he will have to run faster, and will have to do it shipping in from Dubai.

12)(10) Desert Party – Street Cry (Ire) – Sage Cat By Tabasco Cat (Apr) ($425,000) Has a good two-year-old foundation.  Going a mile and a quarter remains a question and still remains a question after the UAE Derby.  He ran behind Regal Ransom in the UAE Derby Saturday.  He launched a bid, but was unable to get to the winner Regal Ransom.   The plan still looks like a trip to Louisville will be in order

Off

Patena –Will have to earn way back on with a strong effort, Mr. Fantasy – Off Derby trail,  Beethoven – Injured leg derails Derby hopes

Another update after next weeks preps…

Quality Road Wins Florida Derby**Video**

Danger to Society And Europe Have Both Been Scratched

Quality Road, the #1 horse on ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12, is set and ready for the Florida Derby on Saturday.  The race features two other Kentucky Derby prospects in Dunkirk and Theregoesjojo, who will both, be among the horses that will be favored in the betting.  The morning-line favorite 9/5  for the Florida Derby is undefeated 3.7 million dollar purchase * Flashback* Dunkirk.  Dunkirk was a winner last time, being wide most of his trip, and at a mile and an eighth.  He swung wide and drew off to win that race.  Dunkirk has also received a good deal of media coverage, and has been touted by some as the next big horse.  Tomorrow he faces his first legitimate class test, as he faces the talented and very fast Quality Road.

Quality Road was a going-away winner in his debut at Aqueduct last November, in what was one of the most impressive maiden wins I have seen by a 2-year-old last year.  Quality Road ran second in his next race off a layoff to Theregoesjojo, and followed that race up with a blockbuster win in the Fountain of Youth.  Theregoesjojo can run to.  He defeated Quality Road in an allowance race in early January.  And was second to Quality Road in the Fountain of Youth with a sustained closing bid, and he is also the best horse to date that Dunkirk has faced.

Team Tabor goes to their bag of tricks in an attempt to get Dunkirk to wire first tomorrow, by entering stable mate and 2.6 million purchase Europe who has been working fast in the mornings.  The strategy is simple, have Europe go to the lead and set a fast pace, and hope Quality Road gets drawn into a speed duel with him, setting up the late kick of Dunkirk.  Sounds good, but Quality Road is far from a one trick pony.  He settled nicely in the Fountain of Youth, while cruising along through fast fractions in tandem with This Ones for Phil, who he put away with ease turning for home.  A pair of recent slow breezes is a positive, indicating he is a relaxed horse who should have plenty in the final furlong.  Quality Road makes his first attempt at a two-turn race, and breaks from post position 2, which will be a positive, as he can save ground early.

ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Florida Derby is Quality Road.  He is the fastest horse in the race, and to win, he will be the horse they have to beat.  Dunkirk, a confirmed closer after his first two starts, will make an expected late bid, but has yet to run a race as fast as Quality Road, although he has been working fast in the mornings.  Dunkirk looks set for a good try.  Pace does make the race, and Quality Road is the horse that can dictate it if he chooses to, rabbit or no rabbit.  Quality Road has the ability to run fast early and through the entire race.  He can settle, in other words he gets into the race on his own, without being asked with his natural speed, and that is one of the most important assets a thoroughbred can have.  Quality Road will probably let Europe go and sit off anyone who is out there by a length, if not more.  Theregoesjojo could pose the biggest threat to Quality Road, as he was the only horse in the picture at the end of the Fountain of Youth.  He should rate a few lengths behind, if not more, and make his bid, but will have to run down Quality Road, which so far,  could be the toughest of all 3-year-olds to run down at this point.  Danger to Society will be making his first start for Richard Dutrow, who has had a few fast works, and could run a good race, but would still need to improve a great deal to defeat Quality Road.  The rest of the field looks overmatched, and anyone else would be a huge upset win.   Quality Road is ready to punch his ticket to Louisville, and as a major player to win the roses in 5 weeks with a break out effort tomorrow.  *Weather is supposed to be sunny with a high of  86*

Quality Road stays in the number 1 spot this week.  The much-anticipated Florida Derby Showdown is this Saturday, where (7) Dunkirk and (8) Theregoesjojo will also run.   The Florida Derby will be the most important prep to date and possibly overall this year.  A  preview of The Florida Derby and the likely winner later in the week.

Beethoven out of Florida Derby…

Wood Memorial Day is April 4th…Photos and a preview of that big day will be coming as well.

ThoroughbredZone will be making some changes as we go into the spring and summer.  Stick around!

First timer Won Token gutted it out to finish third in her debut for the Tagg team.  Sent off at odds of 5/1 she had the lead in the stretch before being over taken by first time starter, the $375,000 Indy’s Sonata to her inside.  She ran well in her debut.  The final time for the 7 furlongs was rather slow 1.25:67.  Do not think she will be a monster, but certainly looks like she will win some races down the road.

West Point Thoroughbred’s Mr. Fantasy is entered in race 8 on January 28th at Aqueduct.  Mr. Fantasy was an impressive maiden winner at Aqueduct on December 28th.  He returns to make his second start against winner.  He has been working well.  And I look forward to seeing how things go second time out.  The New York  bred could turn out to be a good horse.

The other first time starter is Derrick Smith’s and Michael Tabor’s Dunkirk in Race 5 at 7 furlongs.  They went deep in their pockets for this one.  Dunkirk was a 3.7 million dollar purchase at a  Keeneland sale in 07 .   The blood is there.  He is by Unbridled Song out of an A.P. Indy mare.  Dunkirk has been working steady 5-furlong drills in the 1.01 range for his debut tomorrow.  He has been drilling like clockwork since September.  He has 9 works in all since November at Palm Meadows.  His last two works were from the gate.  He looks well meant for his debut tomorrow and we will keep an eye on him.  The race has other interesting prospect as well.  Richard Dutrow’s Cairiene will be making his second career start after debuting on the Belmont turf back in July, running an even second to eventual stakes winner Bittel Road in a 7-horse field at 6 furlongs.  At the time he was under the care of Bill Mott.  Since than he has been sent to Richard Dutrow.  It was a solid first time out effort, as he stayed on for second place.  He returns off the layoff for Richard Dutrow.  Richard Dutrow has had good success when bringing horses back off layoffs.  However none of the listed works are blazing fast. Cairiene will also be making his dirt debut as well.  ThoroughbredZone will give an update on how they did.