The great Zenyatta will go for her 18th straight win without a loss in the Clement L. Hirsch (GI) later this afternoon at Del Mar. Some fans are a bit disappointed that she is not running in a more ambitious spot against better horses. To those I say just be grateful this once in a lifetime mare is even running period at age 6.  Zenyatta has proven herself over and over again as to what kind of champion she is. Her connections have done right by her, and will continue to do right by her. I commend them for even bringing her back to race this year. She has nothing to prove to anyone. She is a special horse, and I am thrilled to see her run.  So sit back, relax, and let Zenyatta do her thing. It is a great joy to watch this mare in action.

2010 Clement L. Hirsch Replay YouTube–Zenyatta

The Quality Road show is warmed up and ready for another dazzling performance in the Whitney (GI) at Saratoga this afternoon.  He has been a special thoroughbred from day one when he broke his maiden at first asking in a dazzling effort at Aqueduct in November of 2008.  Today he makes his first start since his near track record setting effort in the Met Mile (GI) back in May.  Once again Quality Road is ready to threaten another track record on a track where he already has broken one. Haynesfield will look to offer him his biggest challenge today, but as good as I think Haynesfield will run today, it will be a very tall task indeed to beat the super fast Quality Road. Blame is running very well and he will be the 2nd choice in the betting. Blame has been rock solid throughout his career, and today he faces his biggest class test. And Musket Man is in there as well. An honest, reliable racehorse who has been a consistent  runner from day one. And how can I forget?  The 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird will give the Whitney a shot. A very daunting task indeed for Mine That Bird just to hit the board today. Quality Road has given every indication today could be a day to remember.

Racing has some issues, but today is day to be grateful to have the opportunity to see these two remarkable athletes in action. And this is what this great sport is all about. Enjoy it.

2010 Whitney Replay YouTube–Blame Nips Quality Road

2010 Kentucky Derby 136 Chart *Click*

 ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby Pick and Preview

4/30/10 — Updated May 1, 15:23

It’s Kentucky Derby 136.  And boy this one could be a real puzzler at post time.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to make matters even more complicated.  On paper this field looks even–especially from a speed figure stand point.  Trying to determine who will run well on an off-track might be guess work for those horses trying it for the first time.  These are the horses that have won on an off-track. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk–twice. Stately Victor and Mission Impaziple have run 2nd on an off-track. Noble’s Promise has a huge Tomlinson Speed figure of 463.

ThoroughbredZone’s pick to win Kentucky Derby 136 is Sidney’s Candy.  Sidney’s Candy was an impressive winner in the San Vicente.  He rattled off fast fractions and kept it going all the way to the wire and past it.  He showed the ability to go fast early and keep it going until the end.  He has galloped out strongly in all three of his prep races this year.  The biggest key for Sidney’s Candy will be if he can rate.  He has a nice relaxing running style and has never looked pressured or too much on the bit in the early stages of any of his prep races.  I think he does have the ability to rate.  In the Santa Anita Derby he showed another gear in the stretch and exploded to draw off and win by 4 1/2 lengths.  It was an impressive turn of foot. Sidney’s Candy come home times have been solid, and that makes him a prime contender if he can duplicate those efforts. He has shown the ability to run fast through all stages of the race.  He also has another slight advantage–he is a January foal, which gives him a slight edge in the maturation department over others.  The two biggest hurdles in his way will be post position #20, and an off-track. He has drilled well on an off-track, but still he has never raced on one. If he handles the off going, there is no reason to think he can’t overcome his poor post.  Some reports say his last work was average, and an old quarter crack could be bothering him. At this point we will stick with him.  I was able to lock in a $20 win bet in Pool 3 on him at 22/1…

Here is the rest of the field in post position order with comments

1) Lookin at Lucky — He is Unlucky.  The probable post time favorite will break from post position 1–one of the poorest spots to break from in the Kentucky Derby.  Garrett Gomez will have to decide early on what he wants to do–gun him out or take back. Lookin at Lucky has a solid foundation and has been working well.  He will come into the Kentucky Derby making his third start off his current form cycle.  He is battle tested and already proved he can handle dirt.  If he can overcome his poor post position, he should be there late.  He still could be sitting on his best race yet.  He will be short odds and breaking from the rail, is he worth a win bet?  Not sure. He is still dangerous. Zactas /Tris   (Ran 6h) Horrible Trip

2) Ice Box — The Florida Derby winner came from way out of it that day to win. Ice Box should be relatively far off the pace and make one big sustained rally late.  Before the Florida Derby he had shown the ability to stalk. He came home fast in the Florida Derby, and a duplication of that effort makes him a player in this Kentucky Derby. The faster they go up front, the better his chances are.  He has been working well in the slop.  He should be coming late.  He should be fine with distance.  Nick Zito feels good about it. Jose Lezcano is a strong finisher. Zactas /Tris (Ran 2nd)

 3) Noble’s Promise — Noble’s Promise ran right behind Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions.  If you like Lookin at Lucky, you should like Noble’s Promise, who will a much bigger price. He has a huge Tomlinson Wet figure of 463—however he will be making his first start on an off-track. He has a nice stalking style of running that should have him not too far off the pace.  He did not get the best post position.  He will have to avoid possible traffic issues. Noble’s Promise has been able to recover quickly from his rocky Arkansas Derby trip.  He looms a threat if he fires.  Another possible obstacle could be his ability to get a mile and a quarter. Zactas /Tris (Ran 5th) Led at the Top

 4) Super Saver — Super Saver is one of many horses that will be coming into the Kentucky Derby making his 3^rd start in his current form cycle.  He finished 2^nd to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby.  He drifted a bit in the late stages of the Arkansas Derby, but a move forward is expected in the Kentucky Derby. Super Saver was a run-a-away winner at Churchill Downs on a fast track and he was a run-a-away winner on a sloppy track at Belmont Park. He has one published work out since the Arkansas Derby. Expect him to be a few lengths off the pace early. And we know where Calvin likes to go.  WinStars best chance for the roses. Super Saver has superb breeding for this as well. He could very well be Todd Pletchers best chance to win the roses, along with Devil May Care. Zactas / Tris–saver win bet (Winner)

5) Line of David — The front running winner of the Arkansas Derby will try to do it again, but there should be plenty of speed to keep him company. Line of David set fast fractions in the Arkansas Derby, but slowed down coming home. He was able to hold off Super Saver and Dublin. He will have to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. He faces a tough task, but a pace factor for sure. Did the Arkansas Derby take too much out of him?

6) Stately Victor — Stately Victor has raced three times at a mile and eighth and won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He should be fine in getting a distance, his ability to run on a dirt track is in question, but all indications are we are looking at a sloppy track. He closed strongly in the Blue Grass and should be off the pace again.  He had a sharp 5 furlong workout on April 23.  He looks to be coming into his own at the right time. He will offer big odds.  Zactas /Tris    (Ran 8th)

7) American Lion — American Lion is the other WinStar entry in the race. American Lion won the Illinois Derby in his first try on dirt, after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces. He is another horse that has a speed figure that fits right in with the top contenders in the race.  If he can rate instead of going right up on the lead, it could very well benefit him.  At this point it looks like he could be a victim of a fast pace.

8 ) Dean’s Kitten — Dean’s Kitten has the most experience in this Kentucky Derby field, having been in 11 races. He has one career start on a dirt track and it was on an off-track.  He did not run well there. Dean’s Kitten has been working well in the mornings. Dean’s Kitten has done almost all his running on turf.  He should be well off the pace and mount a bid.  Is he fast enough to make up the ground to be a threat.  Others rate higher at this point. He has been working well, and is bred to get a distance, an off track makes him interesting. Should go off a huge price. Zactas /Tris  (Ran 14th)

  9) Make Music for Me — Make Music for Me will be making his first career start on a dirt/off surface in the Kentucky Derby.  During this spring of Kentucky Derby preps, horses trying dirt for the first time have run very well. Line of David, American Lion, Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise showed the could handle the dirt. Make Music for Me also ran right behind Lookin at Lucky in Delmar Futurity and the Best Pal Stakes in California last year. He could be the biggest price on the board when the gates open.  He also drilled a very sharp 4 furlong work on April 19 at Keeneland. Carson City on the bottom gives him nice off track breeding, but not of much help in the distance department.   Some will toss, I will use.  He gets the benefit of the doubt Zactas /Tris –Saver Win Play   (Ran 4th)

10) Paddy O’Prado — Paddy O’Prado will make his second start on a dirt track, and first start on an off track. He has been working well in the slop. Paddy O’Prado has a versatile style of running.  He could either stalk or drop further back.  He has raced at a mile and an eighth three times which is a plus.  In his first career start he raced over sloppy track at Churchill Downs–ran poorly.  Considering it was his first start, that race will be tossed. Zipped a fast 5 furlong work in 58 on April 23.  He should be good in the distance department. He will be another at a huge price big price. Zactas /Tris    (Ran 3rd)

  11) Devil May Care — The filly Devil May Care will enter the Kentucky Derby off a sharp win in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park. She stopped the clock in just a nip over 1:49–faster then Eskendereya and Ice Box–however take into consideration of how the track was playing–either way she ran a super race.  She was also a run-a-awy winner over a sloppy track at Saratoga–other plus, and has a nice stalking style of running that should have her not too far off the pace.  She is one of three horses in the Derby to record a Beyer Speed figure of 100–the other two are Sidney’s Candy and Jackson Bend. Based on that, it makes her a candidate to possibly bag top honors.  Connections passed the Kentucky Oaks for the this spot.  She should be respected.  Zactas /Tris -Saver Win (Ran 10th)

12) Conveyance — Speedy Conveyance will take it right to them out of the gate. Conveyance will try to get a clear lead, and could very well do it.  He has been working fast and looks ready to fire. He could also get pressed by some of the other speed horses.  It would be no shock if he turns for home with the lead.  If he were able to relax on the lead, his chances would improve even more.  He will go as far as he can go on the lead.  He faces distance limitations. He has been working lights out.  He is fast and does scare me.  Tough to not use, but a mile and quarter under possible pressure looks tough.

13) Jackson Bend — Jackson Bend is coming off back-to-back 2^nd place finishes to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He is a very consistent horse.  He earned a 100 beyer speed figure as a 2-year-old.  Distance will be his biggest obstacle in the Kentucky Derby. Should be not to far off the pace. The possibility of him going to lead exists as well, aiding the chances of Ice Box. The final two furlongs look daunting.  It looks like distance will be an issue.

14) Mission Impaziple — Upset winner of the Louisiana Derby has been working well in the slop. He will only be making his 6^th lifetime start and faces his toughest task to date.  He should go off at a square price. Ran a solid 2^nd on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park.  He is a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He is eligible to improve.  Based on the fact he has run well on an off-track and will be big odds, finding a spot for him somewhere might a good idea. He is a bit of a guess in here for me. Zactas /Tris (Ran 9th)

 15) Discreetly Mine — The speedy Discreetly Mine should be part of the early pace.  He broke his maiden over a track rated good at Saratoga, crushing a field 11 others in which Super Saver was ran 2^nd. He has raced on a sloppy track at Saratoga, where he bobbled out of the gate and finished a troubled 4th.  He was unable to get the lead in the Louisiana Derby and had to settle for a 4th place finish.  How far he can go in the Derby with expected pressure is a tough question answer. He zipped a fast 5 furlongs over a sloppy track in 1:00 on April 24.

16) Awesome Act — The late rallying son of Awesome Again will try to uncork that late kick in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.  He will need an honest pace.  Breeding suggest he should be fine with an off track—has never been on one. He could find traffic problems weaving his way through the crowd of horses.  A fast pace should will certainly aid his chances.  He also lost a shoe in the Wood Memorial.  He has room to improve off that race.  Depending on how low his odd are however might determine whether he offers enough value.  He is a closer–but will he get there?  An in the money finish is not out of the question, but still have doubts if he is fast enough to win this race.

17) Dublin — The hard knocking Dublin comes into the Kentucky Derby after three straight Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. He had every chance to pass Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, but was unable to do so. The come home time was not great, but that race served as a solid prep for him. D.Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby.  He should get a good stalking trip and a move forward off the Arkansas Derby is in the cards. Depending on how you feel about this horse, he could either be used or tossed, as his ability to get a mile and a quarter might be in question.  One of his recent works were not great, and he might not be at his best on a sloppy track.  D. Wayne Lukas is a Derby legend. (Never mentioned Dublin In Preview as a user–Ran 7th)

18) Backtalk — Backtalk is a proven commodity on an off-track. The son of Smarty Jones sports two wins over the Churchill Downs surface, and he also sports two wins on an off-track.  He faces a stiff class test in the Kentucky Derby. He should go off at a huge price, possibly 50/1 or higher.  He does come a little short in the speed figure department, however he will get the benefit of the doubt based on the first sentence. I have to admit  I am a bit biased–Smarty Jones is my favorite.  He will go off at whopper odds.

 19) Homeboykris — Dick Dutrow is back, but no Big Brown this time. Homeboykris will be one of the biggest prices on the board when the gates open.  He comes in off a long layoff—a solid angle for Dick Dutrow. He should get a stalking trip. Distance is his biggest obstacle.  If were able to pull this off, it would be one of thee biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.  He is working out very well for this and Dutrow and Dominguez make for a tough team.  He might be out there on the pace for awhile.  It just looks too tough at this point.  

 20) Sidney’s Candy — (Top Pick) The speedy Sidney’s Candy will break from post 20.  He will have to come over  from post position 20 and try to get a good position early. He has the speed to do it.  It looks like no matter what he will lose some ground going into the first turn.  How wide is the question?  He went through his prep season in perfect order winning all three of his prep races, and capped it with a run-a-way win in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can show the ability to rate, it would benefit him immensely, and he seems to be a horse that can, there is no reason not to think he can’t rate.  Another explosive late kick in the stretch will make it tough for anyone to run him down. He galloped out strongly in each one of his prep races this spring.  He should have no problem staying on for a mile and a quarter.  An off track could be his biggest obstacle, and is a mild concern. He looks to be the most talented horse of this group.  He closed at 22/1 in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future bet.  He will be closer to 5/1 tomorrow. (Top Choice) (Ran 17th-Stopped)

Handicapping Tid Bits

Thee Kentucky Derby Legends Trainers are back in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Bullet Bob Baffert, Nick Zito–both with two horses each and 5 Kentucky Derby Trophies between them, and D. Wayne Lukas is back with Dublin–Looking for his 5th trip to the Winner’s Circle in The Kentucky Derby.  Between the three–9 Kentucky Derby Winners.  Todd Pletcher will look to get his first Kentucky Derby winner.

***Todd Pletcher did it–Finally gets his 1st Kentucky Derby winner in Super Saver!!***

How to Bet

How to bet the Kentucky Derby.  There are several approaches one can take.  If you like a horse, you could either bet that horse to win, or depending on how low the odds may be on a horse you like, you could key them in exactas and trifectas, or do both–Churchill Downs will offer a 50 cent trifecta. The 50 cent trifecta will give one an opportunity to use more horses for half the price. Another economical bet is a 5 horse exacta box for a dollar–which will cost you a total of $20 for the wager and you will have 5 horses.  You can also bet more than one horse to win, that is if the odds are worth it. You can also take a crack at a long shot with a saver bet.  And if he or she scores, you will have something on them.  The field does looks even from a speed figure perspective, and adding an off-track could make this anyone’s race possibly if certain scenarios develop.

No matter how much one caps a race, it does not mean one will cash a ticket.  One of the keys on Kentucky Derby day is to also let go and have a little fun with it.  This is not something I preach, but taking a shot with some numbers is not a bad idea on Derby day.  Everyone loves the Kentucky Derby and it’s great sporting event.  Make your main bets, and also make some fun bets–birthdays, trainer combos, horses names and so on.  You just never know what can happen–especially on a track that could turn out to be a swamp.  A simple $1 exacta box is $2 and they have 50 cent trifectas.  No matter what your bank roll may be, relax, make some wagers, and most importantly enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports.  No matter what happens, it promises to be a thriller.  Good luck to all!

4/30/10

It’s Kentucky Derby 136.  And boy this one could be a real puzzler at post time.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to make matters even more complicated.  On paper this field looks even–especially from a speed figure stand point.  Trying to determine who will run well on an off-track might be guess work for those horses trying it for the first time.  These are the horses that have won on an off-track. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk–twice. Stately Victor and Mission Impaziple have run 2nd on an off-track. Noble’s Promise has a huge Tomlinson Speed figure of 463.

ThoroughbredZone’s pick to win Kentucky Derby 136 is Sidney’s Candy.  Sidney’s Candy was an impressive winner in the San Vicente.  He rattled off fast fractions and kept it going all the way to the wire and past it.  He showed the ability to go fast early and keep it going until the end.  He has galloped out strongly in all three of his prep races this year.  The biggest key for Sidney’s Candy will be if he can rate.  He has a nice relaxing running style and has never looked pressured or too much on the bit in the early stages of any of his prep races.  I think he does have the ability to rate.  In the Santa Anita Derby he showed another gear in the stretch and exploded to draw off and win by 4 1/2 lengths.  It was an impressive turn of foot. Sidney’s Candy come home times have been solid, and that makes him a prime contender if he can duplicate those efforts. He has shown the ability to run fast through all stages of the race.  He also has another slight advantage–he is a January foal, which gives him a slight edge in the maturation department over others.  The two biggest hurdles in his way will be post position #20, and an off-track. He has drilled well on an off-track, but still he has never raced on one.  If he handles the off going, there is no reason to think he can’t overcome his poor post.  Some reports say his last work was average, and an old quarter crack could be bothering him. At this point we will stick with him.  I was able to lock in a $20 win bet in Pool 3 on him at 22/1…

Here is the rest of the field in post position order with comments

1) Lookin at Lucky — He is Unlucky.  The probable post time favorite will break from post position 1–one of the poorest spots to break from in the Kentucky Derby.  Garrett Gomez will have to decide early on what he wants to do–gun him out or take back. Lookin at Lucky has a solid foundation and has been working well.  He will come into the Kentucky Derby making his third start off his current form cycle.  He is battle tested and already proved he can handle dirt.  If he can overcome his poor post position, he should be there late.  He still could be sitting on his best race yet.  He will be short odds and breaking from the rail, is he worth a win bet?  Not sure.  He is still dangerous. Zactas /Tris (Ran 6h) Horrible Trip

2) Ice Box — The Florida Derby winner came from way out of it that day to win. Ice Box should be relatively far off the pace and make one big sustained rally late.  Before the Florida Derby he had shown the ability to stalk. He came home fast in the Florida Derby, and a duplication of that effort makes him a player in this Kentucky Derby. The faster they go up front, the better his chances are.  He has been working well in the slop.  He should be coming late.  He should be fine with distance.  Nick Zito feels good about it. Jose Lezcano is a strong finisher. Zactas /Tris (Ran 2nd)

3) Noble’s Promise — Noble’s Promise ran right behind Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions.  If you like Lookin at Lucky, you should like Noble’s Promise, who will a much bigger price. He has a huge Tomlinson Wet figure of 463—however he will be making his first start on an off-track. He has a nice stalking style of running that should have him not too far off the pace.  He did not get the best post position.  He will have to avoid possible traffic issues. Noble’s Promise has been able to recover quickly from his rocky Arkansas Derby trip.  He looms a threat if he fires.  Another possible obstacle could be his ability to get a mile and a quarter. Zactas /Tris (Ran 5th) Led at the Top

4) Super Saver — Super Saver is one of many horses that will be coming into the Kentucky Derby making his 3^rd start in his current form cycle.  He finished 2^nd to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby.  He drifted a bit in the late stages of the Arkansas Derby, but a move forward is expected in the Kentucky Derby. Super Saver was a run-a-away winner at Churchill Downs on a fast track and he was a run-a-away winner on a sloppy track at Belmont Park.  He has one published work out since the Arkansas Derby. Expect him to be a few lengths off the pace early. And we know where Calvin like to go.  WinStars best chance for the roses. Super Saver has superb breeding for this as well.  He could very well be Todd Pletchers best chance to win the roses, along with Devil May Care. Zactas / Tris–saver win bet  **(Winner)

5) Line of David — The front running winner of the Arkansas Derby will try to do it again, but there should be plenty of speed to keep him company. Line of David set fast fractions in the Arkansas Derby, but slowed down coming home. He was able to hold off Super Saver and Dublin. He will have to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. He faces a tough task, but a pace factor for sure. Did the Arkansas Derby take too much out of him?

6) Stately Victor — Stately Victor has raced three times at a mile and eighth and won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He should be fine in getting a distance, his ability to run on a dirt track is in question, but all indications are we are looking at a sloppy track. He closed strongly in the Blue Grass and should be off the pace again.  He had a sharp 5 furlong workout on April 23.  He looks to be coming into his own at the right time. He will offer big odds.  Zactas /Tris (Ran 8th)

7) American Lion — American Lion is the other WinStar entry in the race. American Lion won the Illinois Derby in his first try on dirt, after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces. He is another horse that has a speed figure that fits right in with the top contenders in the race.  If he can rate instead of going right up on the lead, it could very well benefit him.  At this point it looks like he could be a victim of a fast pace.

8 ) Dean’s Kitten — Dean’s Kitten has the most experience in this Kentucky Derby field, having been in 11 races. He has one career start on a dirt track and it was on an off-track.  He did not run well there. Dean’s Kitten has been working well in the mornings. Dean’s Kitten has done almost all his running on turf.  He should be well off the pace and mount a bid.  Is he fast enough to make up the ground to be a threat.  Others rate higher at this point. He has been working well, and is bred to get a distance, an off track makes him interesting. Should go off a huge price. Zactas /Tris (Ran 14th)

9) Make Music for Me — Make Music for Me will be making his first career start on a dirt/off surface in the Kentucky Derby.  During this spring of Kentucky Derby preps, horses trying dirt for the first time have run very well. Line of David, American Lion, Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise showed the could handle the dirt. Make Music for Me also ran right behind Lookin at Lucky in Delmar Futurity and the Best Pal Stakes in California last year. He could be the biggest price on the board when the gates open.  He also drilled a very sharp 4 furlong work on April 19 at Keeneland. Carson City on the bottom gives him nice off track breeding, but not of much help in the distance department.   Some will toss, I will use.  He gets the benefit of the doubt Zactas /Tris –Saver Win Play (Ran 4th)

10) Paddy O’Prado — Paddy O’Prado will make his second start on a dirt track, and first start on an off track. He has been working well in the slop. Paddy O’Prado has a versatile style of running.  He could either stalk or drop further back.  He has raced at a mile and an eighth three times which is a plus.  In his first career start he raced over sloppy track at Churchill Downs–ran poorly.  Considering it was his first start, that race will be tossed.  Zipped a fast 5 furlong work in 58 on April 23.  He should be good in the distance department. He will be another at a huge price big price. Zactas /Tris (Ran 3rd)

11) Devil May Care — The filly Devil May Care will enter the Kentucky Derby off a sharp win in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park. She stopped the clock in just a nip over 1:49–faster then Eskendereya and Ice Box–however take into consideration of how the track was playing–either way she ran a super race.  She was also a run-a-awy winner over a sloppy track at Saratoga–other plus, and has a nice stalking style of running that should have her not too far off the pace.  She is one of three horses in the Derby to record a Beyer Speed figure of 100–the other two are Sidney’s Candy and Jackson Bend. Based on that, it makes her a candidate to possibly bag top honors.  Connections passed the Kentucky Oaks for the this spot.  She should be respected.  Zactas /Tris -Saver Win (Ran 10th)

12) Conveyance — Speedy Conveyance will take it right to them out of the gate. Conveyance will try to get a clear lead, and could very well do it.  He has been working fast and looks ready to fire. He could also get pressed by some of the other speed horses.  It would be no shock if he turns for home with the lead.  If he were able to relax on the lead, his chances would improve even more.  He will go as far as he can go on the lead.  He faces distance limitations. He has been working lights out.  He is fast and does scare me.  Tough to not use, but a mile and quarter under possible pressure looks tough.

13) Jackson Bend — Jackson Bend is coming off back-to-back 2^nd place finishes to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He is a very consistent horse.  He earned a 100 beyer speed figure as a 2-year-old.  Distance will be his biggest obstacle in the Kentucky Derby. Should be not to far off the pace. The possibility of him going to lead exists as well, aiding the chances of Ice Box. The final two furlongs look daunting.  It looks like distance will be an issue.

14) Mission Impaziple — Upset winner of the Louisiana Derby has been working well in the slop. He will only be making his 6^th lifetime start and faces his toughest task to date.  He should go off at a square price. Ran a solid 2^nd on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park.  He is a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He is eligible to improve.  Based on the fact he has run well on an off-track and will be big odds, finding a spot for him somewhere might a good idea. He is a bit of a guess in here for me. Zactas /Tris (Ran 9th)

15) Discreetly Mine — The speedy Discreetly Mine should be part of the early pace.  He broke his maiden over a track rated good at Saratoga, crushing a field 11 others in which Super Saver was ran 2^nd. He has raced on a sloppy track at Saratoga, where he bobbled out of the gate and finished a troubled 4th.  He was unable to get the lead in the Louisiana Derby and had to settle for a 4th place finish.  How far he can go in the Derby with expected pressure is a tough question answer. He zipped a fast 5 furlongs over a sloppy track in 1:00 on April 24.

16) Awesome Act — The late rallying son of Awesome Again will try to uncork that late kick in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.  He will need an honest pace.  Breeding suggest he should be fine with an off track—has never been on one. He could find traffic problems weaving his way through the crowd of horses.  A fast pace should will certainly aid his chances.  He also lost a shoe in the Wood Memorial.  He has room to improve off that race.  Depending on how low his odd are however might determine whether he offers enough value.  He is a closer–but will he get there?  An in the money finish is not out of the question, but still have doubts if he is fast enough to win this race.

17) Dublin — The hard knocking Dublin comes into the Kentucky Derby after three straight Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. He had every chance to pass Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, but was unable to do so. The come home time was not great, but that race served as a solid prep for him. D.Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby.  He should get a good stalking trip and a move forward off the Arkansas Derby is in the cards. Depending on how you feel about this horse, he could either be used or tossed, as his ability to get a mile and a quarter might be in question.  One of his recent works were not great, and he might not be at his best on a sloppy track.  D. Wayne Lukas is a Derby legend. (Never mentioned Dublin In Preview as a user–Ran 7th)

18) Backtalk — Backtalk is a proven commodity on an off-track. The son of Smarty Jones sports two wins over the Churchill Downs surface, and he also sports two wins on an off-track.  He faces a stiff class test in the Kentucky Derby. He should go off at a huge price, possibly 50/1 or higher.  He does come a little short in the speed figure department, however he will get the benefit of the doubt based on the first sentence. I have to admit  I am a bit biased–Smarty Jones is my favorite.  He will go off at whopper odds.

19) Homeboykris — Dick Dutrow is back, but no Big Brown this time. Homeboykris will be one of the biggest prices on the board when the gates open.  He comes in off a long layoff—a solid angle for Dick Dutrow. He should get a stalking trip. Distance is his biggest obstacle.  If were able to pull this off, it would be one of thee biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.  He is working out very well for this and Dutrow and Dominguez make for a tough team.  He might be out there on the pace for awhile.  It just looks too tough at this point.

20) Sidney’s Candy — (Top Pick) The speedy Sidney’s Candy will break from post 20.  He will have to come over  from post position 20 and try to get a good position early. He has the speed to do it.  It looks like no matter what he will lose some ground going into the first turn.  How wide is the question?  He went through his prep season in perfect order winning all three of his prep races, and capped it with a run-a-way win in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can show the ability to rate, it would benefit him immensely, and he seems to be a horse that can, there is no reason not to think he can’t rate.  Another explosive late kick in the stretch will make it tough for anyone to run him down. He galloped out strongly in each one of his prep races this spring.  He should have no problem staying on for a mile and a quarter.  An off track could be his biggest obstacle, and is a mild concern. He looks to be the most talented horse of this group.  He closed at 22/1 in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future bet.  He will be closer to 5/1 tomorrow. (Top Choice) (Ran 17th-Stopped)

Handicapping Tid Bits

Thee Kentucky Derby Legends Trainers are back in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Bullet Bob Baffert, Nick Zito–both with two horses each and 5 Kentucky Derby Trophies between them, and D. Wayne Lukas is back with Dublin–Looking for his 5th trip to the Winner’s Circle in The Kentucky Derby.  Between the three–9 Kentucky Derby Winners.  Todd Pletcher will look to get his first Kentucky Derby winner.

How to Bet

How to bet the Kentucky Derby.  There are several approaches one can take.  If you like a horse, you could either bet that horse to win, or depending on how low the odds may be on a horse you like, you could key them in exactas and trifectas, or do both–Churchill Downs will offer a 50 cent trifecta. The 50 cent trifecta will give one an opportunity to use more horses for half the price. Another economical bet is a 5 horse exacta box for a dollar–which will cost you a total of $20 for the wager and you will have 5 horses.  You can also bet more than one horse to win, that is if the odds are worth it. You can also take a crack at a long shot with a saver bet.  And if he or she scores, you will have something on them.  The field does looks even from a speed figure perspective, and adding an off-track could make this anyone’s race possibly if certain scenarios develop.

No matter how much one caps a race, it does not mean one will cash a ticket.  One of the keys on Kentucky Derby day is to also let go and have a little fun with it.  This is not something I preach, but taking a shot with some numbers is not a bad idea on Derby day.  Everyone loves the Kentucky Derby and it’s great sporting event.  Make your main bets, and also make some fun bets–birthdays, trainer combos, horses names and so on.  You just never know what can happen–especially on a track that could turn out to be a swamp.  A simple $1 exacta box is $2 and they have 50 cent trifectas.  No matter what your bank roll may be, relax, make some wagers, and most importantly enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports.  No matter what happens, it promises to be a thriller.  Good luck to all!

Devil May Care Added On 4/27— Debuts At #8—#3 Endorsement Out Of Kentucky Derby With Injury

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat  (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top.  Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this  Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed.  He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time.  He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one.  Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed.  A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp.  A dry fast track is preferred.

(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me  (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely.  The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race.  Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite.  He has a solid foundation and is battle tested.  Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally.  Connections have been here before and have won it before.  He put in another nice work this morning.  He has solid credentials.  The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.  

**Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March.  Endorsement ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.  Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race.  He has a running style that should suit him well in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  A solid pace should be on tap.  The two other WinStar horse’s Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead.  Super Saver however can rate.  Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter.  **(Out Of The Kentucky Derby With Injury)**

(3)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island  (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby.  Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one.  He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI).  He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby.  Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question?  Zito is happy with him. 

(4)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy  (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David.  That race served as a solid prep race for him.  He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings.  He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip.  Another move forward is expected on Saturday.  He is well bred to get mile a quarter.  Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.

(5)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird  (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot.  Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts.  Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David.  The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin.  Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.

(6)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull  (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go.  Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes.  He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly.  His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead.  He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset.  He could possibly turn for home with the lead.  Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.

(7)(-) Devil May Care – Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom  (May) $110,000 — The filly Devil May Care shows up on the scene at the last second.  Devil May Care won the Frizette (GI) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and won the Bonnie Miss (GII) at Gulfstream Park back in March as a 3-year-old in a sharp effort.  She has a nice stalking style of running that should have her in good striking position in the Kentucky Derby.  She is also a May foal and will not actually turn three until almost a week after the Kentucky Derby.  Devil May Care is still a developing thoroughbred and that is a good thing this time of year.  She drilled a fast 5 furlongs on April 24.  Distance should be no issue.

(8)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector  (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe.  He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat.  A slow pace also hurt his chances that day.  He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances.   There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs.  He should not be one of those.  The biggest question is if he is fast enough.

(9)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick  (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20.  He worked again on Aril 26.  On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week.  Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times.  He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000.  Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race.  He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day.  He also got cut up during the race.   He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort.  He has class.

(10)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace  (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII).  He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start.  He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development.  He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win. 

(11)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer  (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12.  Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses.  Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks.  He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland.  Stately Victor should move up on an off track.  He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range.  How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern.  Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.

(12)(-) Paddy  O’Prado – El Prado – Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here.  He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI).  Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces.  And his best races have come on turf.  Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally.  All indications are his chances should improve on an off track.  He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.

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Off Derby 12

Eskendereya, Rule, Line of David and American Lion

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Later in the week ThoroughbredZone will have a complete Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview.  ThoroughbredZone will take a quick glimpse at all of the runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby and give some pro’s and con’s of each and see who is worthy to use on tickets & who is not.  Stick Around

Devil May Care Added On 4/27— Debuts At #8

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat  (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top.  Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this  Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  The absence Eskendereya has enhanced Sidney’s Candy’s chances of snagging top honors this Saturday, along with every other horse in the Kentucky Derby.  He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed.  He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time.  He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one.  Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed.  A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp.  A dry fast track is preferred.

(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me  (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely.  The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race.  Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite.  He has a solid foundation and is battle tested.  Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally.  Connections have been here before and have won it before.  He put in another nice work this morning.  He has solid credentials.  The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.  

**(3)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March.  Endorsement ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby.  Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race.  He has a running style that should suit him well in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  A solid pace should be on tap.  The two other WinStar horse’s Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead.  Super Saver however can rate.  Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter.  **(Out Of Kentucky Derby With Injury)**

(4)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island  (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby.  Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one.  He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI).  He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby.  Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question?  Zito is happy with him. 

(5)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy  (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David.  That race served as a solid prep race for him.  He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings.  He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip.  Another move forward is expected on Saturday.  He is well bred to get mile a quarter.  Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.

(6)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird  (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot.  Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts.  Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David.  The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin.  Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.

(7)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull  (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go.  Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes.  He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly.  His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead.  He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset.  He could possibly turn for home with the lead.  Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.

(8)(-) Devil May Care – Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom  (May) $110,000 — The filly Devil May Care shows up on the scene at the last second.  Devil May Care won the Frizette (GI) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and won the Bonnie Miss (GII) at Gulfstream Park back in March as a 3-year-old in a sharp effort.  She has a nice stalking style of running that should have her in good striking position in the Kentucky Derby.  She is also a May foal and will not actually turn three until almost a week after the Kentucky Derby.  Devil May Care is still a developing thoroughbred and that is a good thing this time of year.  She drilled a fast 5 furlongs on April 24.  Distance should be no issue.

(9)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector  (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe.  He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat.  A slow pace also hurt his chances that day.  He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances.   There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs.  He should not be one of those.  The biggest question is if he is fast enough.

(10)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick  (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20.  He worked again on Aril 26.  On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week.  Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times.  He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000.  Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race.  He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day.  He also got cut up during the race.   He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort.  He has class.

(11)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace  (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII).  He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start.  He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development.  He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.  He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win. 

(12)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer  (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12.  Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses.  Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks.  He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland.  Stately Victor should move up on an off track.  He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range.  How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern.  Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.

(12)(-) Paddy  O’Prado – El Prado – Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here.  He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI).  Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces.  And his best races have come on turf.  Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally.  All indications are his chances should imrove on an off track.  He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.

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Off Derby 12

Eskendereya, Rule, Line of David and American Lion

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Later in the week ThoroughbredZone will have a complete Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview.  ThoroughbredZone will take a quick glimpse at all of the runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby and give some pro’s and con’s of each and see who is worthy to use on tickets & who is not.  Stick Around!

Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming—And Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview

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ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 For Week of 4/12/10

(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Sidney’s Candy remains on top.  Sidney’s Candy will prepare for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  Sidney’s Candy is coming off an impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he led every step of the way, and stopped the clock in an sharp 1:48 flat over the Pro-Ride surface. Sidney’s Candy will be making his first career start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby.  Always a question when a horse is doing something for the first time, but there is nothing to indicate he won’t run well on it.  Further improvement on dirt is expected.  Speedy colt has a fast cruising speed, and is able to relax as he goes.  He should see plenty of other speed in the Kentucky Derby, but if he runs his race, he could very well be the speed of the speed.  He does things easy, and it’s not out of the question he can settle off the pace if need be.  He will be making his 4th start off the layoff, and will be sitting on another big race.  Distance is no concern at this point.

(2)(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya will be the probable post time favorite in this years Kentucky Derby, coming off back to back romps in the Fountain of Youth (GII) and Wood Memorial (GI) where he earned two big speed figures.  The large son of Giant’s Causeway certainly looks the part.  He is a big, strong muscular horse. Eskendereya was not challenged in either the Fountain of Youth (GII) or the Wood Memorial (GI), drawing off to win in a hand ride in the Wood.  The pros are he is bred to go a mile and a quarter.  He is talented, but has yet to see a real stiff pace, or better quality horses.  The biggest question is whether his win in the Wood Memorial (GI) was too easy of a race.  He will get a test at Churchill Downs, but the talent to get it done is there.

(3)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky is coming off a tough trip in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he ran into some traffic issues turning for home.  He finished a troubled third to Sidney’s Candy.  If Lookin at Lucky had a clean trip it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy.   The Santa Anita Derby (GI) was far from a must win situation for Lookin at Lucky.  He locked up a spot in the Kentucky Derby a long time ago, and leads the pack in graded earnings.  Lookin at Lucky is a very seasoned 3-year-old.  He raced at two, and has progressed nicely leading up to the Kentucky Derby.  He is still developing as a 3-year-old.  He is a late May foal, which makes him one of the youngest horses in the race.  Bob Baffert’s master plan has always been to get this horse to Kentucky ready for his best race.  He may be light in the speed figure department, but makes that up with experience, and continuing maturation.  He still may have not run his best race yet.

(4)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park.  The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win.  The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away.  The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46.  It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement.  He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions.  3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is.   If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs.  He has a nice stalking style of running.

(5)(-) Line of David – Lion Heat – Emma’s Dilemma by Capote (Mar) Homebred — Line of David shows up on the scene after winning the Arkansas Derby (GI) in gate to wire fashion in his first career start on dirt.  Line of David zipped right to the lead and set fractions of 22.65, 46.26, 1:10.75, 1:36.52 and stopped the clock in 1:49.37.  He dug in and fended off the late surges of Super Saver and Dublin, who both made strong, sustained bids.  Line of David’s win was a game win, and it also was a hard fought win.  He will have three weeks to recover, and do it again.  He will face other speed horses, and will have to go a bit further in the Kentucky Derby.  He is improving at the right time, and he rattled off quick fractions early, and held on late to chalk up the Grade I win.  He will face a tall task in the Kentucky Derby, but he ran a big one in the Arkansas Derby.  The question is, will he digress or move forward?

(6)(-) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Mar) Homebred — Super Saver making just his 2nd start of 2010, ran a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI).  He sat off the pace and rallied in the stretch, just missing getting to the wire before Line of David.  He did drift a bit late, but he ran a solid race.  He also showed the important ability to sit off the pace.  In his previous races, Super Saver ran right on or near the lead.  The pros for Super Saver is he will be making his third start off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby, and he sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) last November. The negatives possibly can be, how much did the Arkansas Derby (GII) take out of him?  Breeding indicates that going a mile and a quarter should be no issue, but the jury is still out.  It will be a plus if can show the ability to rate again in the Kentucky Derby.

(7)(-) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (Apr) $525,000 — Dublin returns to the Kentucky Derby 12 after a game 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GI) to Line of David.  Dublin made a prolonged rally in the middle of the track, but was unable to go by Super Saver and Line of David.  He might not have gotten the win, but the race should set him up nicely for the Kentucky Derby, where he will be making his third start of 2010, and his third start into his current form cycle, which means who could very well move forward off this race.  D. Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about having a horse ready to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby.   The question that still remains is, if he wants to go a mile and a quarter.  If the pace scenario sets up the right way, and with his running style, he could make his presence felt in the late stages at Churchill Downs.  Dublin might have the best chance to move forward off the Arkansas Derby of the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby.  If you are going to bet the Kentucky Derby, it might not be a bad idea to use Dublin.

(8)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impazible the Louisiana Derby (GII) winner was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time.  He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII).  The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby.  Mission Impaziple is one of the harder horses to get a gauge on.  His running style should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby.  He will face a stiff test, and will have to go the mile and a quarter.  Interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.

(9)(10) American Lion – Tiznow – Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred – The parade of WinStar Farm horses that will run in these years Kentucky Derby continue to grow.  American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back.  American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race.  He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race.  American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March.  WinStar has another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby in the likes of American Lion.  American Lion is a front-runner, and should be right up there in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby with the other speedy colts.  Staying on all the way will be a tal task.

(10)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement.  Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly.  The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46.  Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late.  Conveyance is another one in this year’s Kentucky Derby that likes to roll anlong on the front end, and he will see plenty of others who run the same way.  Conveyance has only lost once in his career.  Should enter the Derby fit for bob Baffert, who can get one ready on Derby day.  Staying the distance is the  biggest concern, along with a possible hot pace sceanrio.

(11)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in the Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  He has experience in running route races.  He has run at  a mile and an eighth three times.  He should be far off the pace at Churchill, and make a long bid late.  A fast pace should help him.  Is he fast enough is the question?

(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Another WinStar horse set for the Kentucky Derby.  Rule set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  Rule will enter the Kentucky Derby off a 6-week layoff.  The one thing we know is he will be a fresh horse.  How he runs off the layoff is a bit of an unknown.  He has always shown the ability to run right up on, or near the lead, and in this year’s Kentucky Derby that could be a very crowded place to be.  There should be plenty of other speed to deal with.  If he can show the ability to rate, that could help his cause, but there is nothing to indicate he can, and the derby is not really the time to experiment.  The distance will be his other issue.

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The Lexington Stakes, The Derby Trial and The Withers are the three remaming races left that could have an impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby.  One horse to mention is the speed ball Eightyfiveinafifty, who still clings to Kentucky Derby hopes.  If he makes it in, he will make a fast pace even more insane.  Hold on and get ready if he makes it.  He will run in either The Derby Trial or the Withers.

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And NJ Bred Together Indy Wins The Commonwealth At Keeneland! ThoroughbredZone Flashback http://bit.ly/9j3dN

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Big changes this week—Sidney’s Candy takes over at #1—moving up from #3.  Eskendereya moves up to #2.  Lookin at Lucky drops to #3.  American Lion debuts in the #10 spot. Caracortado drops off.  Endorsement moves up to #4.  Noble’s Promise drops to #5.  Odysseus drops to #7.  Interactif moves up to #6.  These are the most notable changes this week.  #1 through #5 have have been shaken up.  Things are getting very interesting as we close in on May 1, 2010.

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Next Week There Will Be A Complete Updated  ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 After The Arkansas Derby & Blue Grass

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ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12

(1)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy takes over as the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after putting together another dazzling performance in winning the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  ThoroughbredZone has been high on this horse since his sharp win in the San Vicente (GII).  He followed that win by putting together another awesome front-running win in the San Felipe (GII).  Sidney’s Candy topped both those efforts by winning the Santa Anita Derby (GI) to make it three straight wins.  Sidney’s Candy broke on top and never looked back after briefly stumbling out of the gate easily galloping along  until the top of the stretch.  When Joe Talamo asked Sidney’s Candy for more—he responded with another  explosion of power to draw clear.   It was lights out for the rest of the field after that.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.00, 48.50, 1:12.33, 1:35.55 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:48.00 flat—and he rocketed home in a fast 12.45.  Sidney’s Candy margin of victory was four and a half lengths.  Setsuko made a belated rally, but it was not nearly enough.  Sidney’s Candy was making his first career start at a one and one eighth miles.  He went past the wire strongly, never showing signs of exhaustion, and never being passed by any horse as he galloped out after crossing the finish line.  Sidney’s Candy has a nice fluid, easy running style.  He has a superb cruising speed, and he does it all on his own, never being asked for anything in the early stages of a race.  And he is capable of going faster in his cruising mode.  One question that he will face is—can he handle dirt?  Everything has come easy for this colt so far.  The dirt question will loom, but he should have no issue with it.  In fact he could very well improve on dirt.  There is also the question as to how he will handle other speed horses.  Any horse that goes to the lead will have to deal with him, and that won’t be an easy task.  Sidney’s Candy is a naturally fast  runner.  If he improves further more off his Santa Anita Derby (GI) at Churchill Downs, he will be difficult to deal with.  He has improved with each race this year up until now.  The Kentucky Derby will be his fourth start off the layoff, and he will be cycling up to a peak effort.  Sidney’s Candy also has the advantage of being a January foal, giving him an edge in the maturation department.  Sidney’s Candy has speed and stamina—going a mile and a quarter will be no issue.  He defeated American Lion with ease in the San Felipe (GII)—who came back to win the Illinois Derby (GIII).  Sidney’s Candy is as talented Thoroughbred. The sky is limit with this guy. | Next-Kentucky Derby
(2)(4) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya followed his big Fountain of Youth (GII) win by stomping out five other foes in the Wood Memorial (GI), going on to win by almost 10 lengths.  Eskendereya never had to do too much in the Wood Memorial (GI).  Eskendereya rated right off Most Happy Fella and Jackson Bend, through slow fractions of 24.32, 49.21 and 1:13.54.  Eskendereya took over the lead  turning for home in a hand ride.   Eskendereya cruised home under the guidance of John Velasquez—who took a few peaks behind, only to see the others horses getting smaller as Eskendereya’s lead widened on a field that was no match for him on this day.  The win a public workout for the son of Giant’s Causeway—who never once saw the whip.  Eskendereya sporting front bandages for the first time stopped the clock in 1:49.97 over a fast track.  Eskendereya came home in a fast 12.24 after sitting off lazy splits.  Eskendereya stamped himself as the probable post time favorite when he enters the gate in the Kentucky Derby.  Eskendereya is a large, well built horse who will see his first class test in the Kentucky Derby, and it’s where he will see Sidney’s Candy, among others up close and personal—in what could be shaping up as a classic west coast vs. east coast showdown between the two.  Eskendereya will be put to the test when he faces Sidney’s Candy.  He will most certainly be the best horse he has seen.  Eskendereya has a lot of talent, going a mile and a quarter will not be an issue.  The one question that could be a concern is—was the Wood Memorial (GI) too easy of a race for him?  He certainly looks the part. We will see soon enough. | Next-Kentucky Derby

(3)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky kicked off the first  ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 on top—he slips to #3 this week after his troubled 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  ThoroughbredZone indicated before the race, that this was far from a must win situation for the son of Smart Strike.  Lookin at Lucky locked up a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs a long time ago.  In Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (GI) he went off as the odds on choice.  He was stalking not too far behind Sidney’s Candy along the rail when he ran into some trouble— jockey Garret Gomez had to check Lookin at Lucky as he approached the turn for home, ending any chance at beating Sidney’s Candy at that point, and even if he had no issues, it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy.  Why he was down on the rail is another story.  Lookin at Lucky will still head to Churchill Down with the best foundation of any horse in the race.  He has already proved he can handle dirt, and his stalking style will have him in contention throughout.  Bob Baffert’s Real Quiet and Silver Charm, both ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (GI)—they both went on to win the Kentucky Derby.  Lookin at Lucky will no longer be considered the horse to beat now at Churchill Downs, where he will face off against Sidney’s Candy and Eskendereya.  Lookin at Lucky still has plenty of upside.  He did not have the best of trips in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Kentucky Derby.  Lookin at Lucky should come into the race in good order, and ready for a peak effort.  Nothing comes easy in the Kentucky Derby—this year will be no exception. | Next Kentucky Derby

(4)(7) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement zooms up to #4 spot this week  Endorsement was making only his 4th career start in the Sunland Derby(GIII), and it was his first attempt in graded stakes competition.  Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park.  The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win.  The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away.  The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46.  It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement.  He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions.  3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is.   If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs.  He has a nice stalking style of running.  Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby

(5)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise drops down to #5 this week by no fault of his own.  It could be a temporary dip—with a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI) he could jump right back up.  Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI), just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)
(6)(8 Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)

(7)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Drops to #7 this week.  Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)

(8)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act drops to #8 this week.  Awesome Act the winner of the Gotham (GIII) back in March was no match for Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI) this past Saturday.  Turning for home Awesome Act was in a good stalking position, and Julien Leparoux had Awesome Act in a hammerlock turning gore home, but when he was called upon to make a run, he was unable to sustain a strong rally.  Awesome Act was unable to make up any ground on the run-a-way winner Eskendereya.  Awesome Act was making his second start off a layoff in the Wood Memorial (GI).  He ran a very strong race in the Gotham (GIII) and how much that might have taken out of him is something that should be considered.  Awesome Act had to overcome a long plane flight and a stay in the detention barn before winning the Gotham (GIII).  Awesome Act lost a shoe coming out of the starting gate, and that is not a good thing.  And the lazy fractions were of no help.  He will need a faster pace—Gotham (GIII) fractions were very sharp, setting up his strong late rally.  It looks like connections intend to go forward to Churchill Downs.  He would be making his third start off the layoff, but he will have to show he can run faster.  He faces a tall order in a few weeks, nothing is impossible, but nonetheless he will have to ramp it up a few notches to be considered a real threat to win the roses.  The faster the pace, the better off he will be.  He should improve off his Wood Memorial (GI) effort. | Next-Kentucky Derby

(9)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand.  Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time.  He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII).  The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will.  Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race.  Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win.  A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed.  A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32.  Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?

(10)(-)American Lion – Tiznow – Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred – The parade of Winstar Farm horses that will run in this years Kentucky Derby continue to grow.  American Lion debuts in the # 10 this week after winning the Illinois Derby (GIII) in his dirt debut.  American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back.  American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race.  He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race.  American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March.  Winstar farm has a another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby  in the likes of American Lion. | Next-Kentucky Derby

(11)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement.  Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly.  The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46.  Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late.  The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more.  Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing.  Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert?  The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well.  Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby.  Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?

(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  Here is an interesting tid-bit— Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth.   Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day.  Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby.  The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully.  Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya.  What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year.   The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario.  Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause.  Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next – Kentucky Derby

(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire.  He did stay on to finish a game 3rd.  The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth.  He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time.  Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby.  He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances.  His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now.  The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break.  He will come into the race well rested.  Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end.  If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby

Knocking On Door

Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer – 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince – 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI),  Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), Tiz the One – Talented son of Tiznow, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- 2nd in Wood Memorial (GI),  Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – 4th in Wood Memorial (GI), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI)

 And there could be a new #1 on ThoroughbredZone’s  Kentucky Derby Top 12 after this weekend…

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(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky still sitting pretty at #1.  Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII).  In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two.  Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07.  Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31.  The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt.  Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature.  Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid.  If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI) making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert.  One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. A showdown is looming with Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby (GI).  Lookin at Lucky does not have to win this race.  Two of Bob Baffert’s other Kentucky Derby winning horses, Real Quiet and Silver Charm both used the Santa Anita Derby (GI) as their final prep before the Kentucky Derby—they both finished 2nd. | Next-Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(2)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI), just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30.  He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly.  Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif.  Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win.  And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race.  He has a relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate.  He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department.  He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt.  He has yet to race on dirt. He will face off against Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) in what should be a classic showdown. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(4)(4) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  It was a nice win, but not as easy as it looked.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter.  He will face Awesome Act Wood Memorial (GI). | Next-Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) –Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)

(6)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt in the Gotham (GIII).   He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow.  Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer.  Awesome Act will face off against Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI).  The Wood Memorial should give us a good gauge on how good these two colts are. | Next- Wood Memorial (GI)

(7)(-) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement debuts at #7 after showing up on the scene with a huge effort to win the Sunland Derby (GIII) over heavy favorite Conveyance.  Endorsement was making only his 4th career start, and it was his first in graded stakes competition.  Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2010 at Oaklawn Park.  The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge win over a horse that was expected to win.  The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away.  The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46.  It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement.  He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions.  3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is.   If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that could mean good things at Churchill Downs.  He has a nice stalking style.  Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby

(8)(7) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)

(9)(-) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand.  Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time.  He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII).  The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will.  Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race.  Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win.  A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed.  A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32.  Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?

(10)(11) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred –Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13.  He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race.  Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sidney’s Candy.  He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sidney’s Candy’s lead.  He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future.  He will have to move forward in his next race. He will face Sidney’s Candy and Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(11)(8) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement.  Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly.  The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46.  Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late.  The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more.  Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing.  Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert?  The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well.  Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby.  I still think Mr. Baffert expected to win this race.  Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?

(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI).  Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion.  Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win.  Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds.  Here is an interesting tid-bit—Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth.   Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day.  Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby.  The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully.  Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya.  What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year.   The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario.  Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause.  Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next – Kentucky Derby

(12)(10) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits.  All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire.  He did stay on to finish a game 3rd.  The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth.  He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time.  Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby.  He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances.  His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now.  The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break.  He will come into the race well rested.  Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end.  If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby

Knocking On Door

Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer – 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince – 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI),  Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), American Lion – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14 at a mile, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- Next Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – Next Wood Memorial (GI), Yawanna Twist- Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Next Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Dave In Dixie – Next Illinois Derby (GIII)

New ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Tuesday–Expect Some Changes

The #1 Horse And #3 Horse Possible To Square off in The Santa Anita Derby (GI)–#1 Lookin at Lucky 90% Certain For Santa Anita Derby & Would Meet #3 Sidney’s Candy In A West Coast Kentucky Derby Showdown!

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Here is a quick look at today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) and a look at the top conteders.

Conveyance is the morning line 9/5 favorite in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII).  This is the first time that the Sunland Derby (GIII) is a graded race. Conveyance is the undefeated son of Indian Charlie, and is trained by Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert. Conveyance should go right to the lead and try to dictate the pace the entire way.

Two horses in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) that will try to get their tickets punched to Churchill Downs will be Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit.  Nacho Friend is coming in off a game 3rd place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham (GIII) earlier this month at Aqueduct.  It was Nacho Friends first start since July 31, 2009 where he ran a good 4th in the Sanford Stakes (GII) at Saratoga. Nacho Friend will be making his second start off the layoff in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) for Kelly Breen.  Joe Bravo has made the trip out west to ride Nacho Friend.  George and Lori Hall’s Nacho Friend breezed 5 furlongs over the Sunland surface on March 22.  This is a good spot for Nacho Friend. This field is not the strongest, and has two other main contenders to deal with in Conveyance and Tempted to Tapit.  I expect Nacho Friend to run well today and try to get that ticket punched to Churchill Downs.  He should move forward off his last race.

Tempted to Tapit comes into the Sunland Derby (GIII) after running a game 2nd to Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star (GII) at the Fairgrounds in February. Tempted to Tapit is the #12 horse in ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12–tied with Ice Box, winner of last weeks Florida Derby (GI). Tempted to Tapit was an $18,000 purchase and has already gone on to earn over $100,000.  He will look to add to that total this afternoon. Tempted to Tapit has been working strongly at Gulfstream Park for trainer Steve Kelsaris. Tempted to Tapit is ready for a solid attempt in today’s  Sunland Derby (GIII).

Conveyance will be a tough customer today for Bob Baffert. Conveyance has been working like a machine for Bob Baffert over the Pro-Ride surface Santa Anita.  A top effort to propel him into the Kentucky Derby is expected. Conveyance is also going to be stretching out for the first time to a mile and an eighth.  However Nacho Friend & Tempted to Tapit will offer him his biggest challenge today.  Both Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit will need strong efforts to be considered Kentucky Derby prospects.  I expect both to run well and be there late today.  They will have to beat Conveyance, and they will give it their best shot.

One other horse to make mention of here in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) is Classical Slew, who will be making his first career start on dirt for Doug O’Neil. Classical Slew makes his first start since a 3rd place finish in the San Vicente (GII) to speedster and the #3 horse on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 Sydney’s Candy. Classical Slew will be stretching out for the first time today, and has some speed.  He could go right up after Conveyance early.  If Classical Slew shows early pop, that could make for an interesting pace scenario.

The rest of the field looks overmatched at this point.  The two biggest threats to Conveyance are Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit. Classical Slew could be a pace factor–depending on what happens with him, it could have an impact on the races outcome.  It’s hard to gauge how well he will run.  Should be a good price, and using underneath might not be a bad idea.  The final furlong in today’s Sunland Derby (GIII) should be interesting.  Conveyance will try to hold off the late bids of Nacho Friend and Tempted to Tapit.

(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky stays on top this week.  Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII).  In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two.  Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07.  Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31.  The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt.  Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature.  Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid.  If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI)  making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert.  One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. | Next-Arkansas Derby (GI) or Wood Memorial (GI) <!–more–>

(2)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise debuts in the #2  spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  In hindsight he should have been on the first ThoroughbredZone  Kentucky Derby 12.  Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI) just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky.  ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well.  He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface.  Noble’s Promise could very well be on his way to a long rivalry with Lookin at Lucky that could last all year. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)

(3)(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Moves up from #11 all the way to #3 this week.  Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance.  Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30.  He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly.  Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif.  Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win.  And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race.  He has a  relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate.  He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department.  He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt.  He has yet to race on dirt. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI) 4/3

(4)(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Drops down to #4—No Changes.   Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 Wood Memorial (GI)

(5)(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – Stays put at #5—No Changes.  The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins.  He ran on the front end in both wins.  Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others.  Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night.  He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances.  He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further.  He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 or Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(6)(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Stays put at #6.  Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did.  Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby.  Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort.  Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31.  Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his race prior.  He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire.  The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort?  He certainly had to work for the win.  He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Wood Memorial (GI) Possible

(7)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdinis Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act debuts at #7 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after winning the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 6.  A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt.   He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow.  Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer.  He will see a tougher field next out. Awesome Act is aiming for the Wood Memorial (GI) on 4/3

(8)(-) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – Interactif debuts at #8 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  He ran a good closing 2nd to Sydney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII).  Interactif stalked Sydney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short.  He had every opportunity to dig into Sydney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slowepace set by Sydney’s Candy did not help.  He looked good in the gallop, but never passed Sydney’s Candy.  All in all he ran a nice race.  It looks like he will get another chance next month. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(9)(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – Drops down to #9 this week.  Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13.  He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race.  Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sydney’s Candy.  He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sydney’s Candy’s lead.  He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future.  He will have to move forward in his next race. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)

(10)(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #10—No Changes.  Another Bob Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4—that makes him the only undefeated horse left on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally.  Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter.   He could very well be suited best suited for distances less than a mile.  Bob Baffert is aiming for the Kentucky Derby with him. | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) 3/28

(11)(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Drops down to #11—No Changes.  Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race.  Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead.  Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go.  Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(12)(10) Tempted to Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Drops down to # 12—No Changes.  Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted to Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) or Florida Derby (GI)

Off Kentucky Derby 12  – D’Funnybone – Swale (GII),  Dave In Dixie – 6th in San Felipe (GII),  Dublin – Next New York’s St. Patrick’s Day Parade

Knocking On Door

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Schoolyard Dreams – Just missed winning Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead – Florida Derby (GI) Next, Miner’s Reserve – Next Florida Derby (GI), Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII)—American Lion – 4th in San Felipe (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Connemara –  Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite – Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk – Louisiana (GII), Illinois Derby (GII)  or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII)—Wood Memorial (GI) Next, A Little Warm – Louisiana Derby (GII) possible, Ron The Greek – Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer - Next start undecided, Make Music For Me - Blue Grass Stakes (GI)

***The Cheltenham Gold Cup is Friday.  Don’t miss out on all the exciting Online Betting opportunities that await in this horse racing betting classic***

Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Soon

 
Massive Nor’easter KO’s Internet–Will Try To Get This Up Sometime Tonight Or Tomorrow*** There Will Be Some Changes In The New ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12***
No Apple Blossom For Rachel Alexandra

Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) – Odysseus will try to back up his impressive 15 length win last time out today against  Super Saver, who will be making his 3-year-old debut this afternoon at Tampa Bay Downs.  Super Saver has been working very well well for Todd Pletcher, and will certainly come into this race ready to run.  The lightly raced Uptowncharlybrown makes his 4th career start after a 3rd place finish in the Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) behind Rule and Schoolyard Dreams.  Schoolyard Dreams will also be coming into this race off his 2nd place finish to Rule.

The Rebel (GII) – Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise will both make their first lifetime starts on dirt.  Noble’s Promise has been working very well for his 3-year-old debut for Ken McPeek.  Dublin was a fast closing 2nd to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes last month over this same surface.  Uh Oh Bango will make his 3-year-old debut as well.  He was a game 2nd to the Rule in the Delta Jackpot.  We will get to see how Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise handle the dirt.

The San Felipe (GII) – This is the 3rd of the three Kentucky Derby preps today, and this one is shaping up to be a good one.  The undefeated Caracortado faces his stiffest challenge to date.  He is coming off a win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) where he was able to get to the wire first–holding off the strong late rally of Dave In Dixie–who will also run today’s San Felipe Stakes (GII).  Sidney’s Candy will stretch out today for the first time to a mile and sixteenth.  He was an impressive winner last out in the San Vincente Stakes (GII)–leading gate to wire through fast fractions to stop the clock in 1:20.91.  John Sadler trains both Sidney’s Candy and Dave In Dixie–a solid 1-2 punch.  American Lion is returning after his 3rd place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.  Interactif is moving from turf to Pro-Ride in today’s San Felipe (GII) for Todd Pletcher.  Stephen’s Got Hope–troubled trip last time and Erbeia (Both coming out of the same race) a late runner for Richard Mandella round out this field–both face their stiffest class test yet.

The Champions Are Back In Action Today!–Watch Them Both On The NTRA Today–Link Below

Rachel Alexandra will face a field of 4 others in today’s New Orleans Ladies at a mile and a sixteenth.  This race will serve as a prep for the huge “Race For The Ages” the Apple Blossom (GI) at Oaklawn Park against Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and the undefeated Zenyatta on April 9, 2010.  And Zenyatta herself will also get a prep race in today’s (GI) Santa Margarita at Santa Anita at a mile and an eighth. The undefeated Zenyatta will face 7 others.  You can watch the live webcast on NTRA starting at 6:00 PM EST.  Just click this link.

***An Updated ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Soon***

(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky will kick things off in the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s 2010 Kentucky Derby 12.  The 2-year-old Champion has yet to make his first start as a 3-year-old—and that could possibly come in either the San Felipe (GII) or the Rebel (GII). Lookin at Lucky had a solid 2-year-old campaign.  He ran a very close 2nd to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) after being wide most of the way.  He has a nice sit back and stalk type style of running.  He has a solid foundation under him and is still behind a lot of the others in the maturation department being a late May foal.  He is continuing to develop physically and mentally as a thoroughbred racehorse.  Bob Baffert will do everything he can to have him primed on Derby day—he knows how to do it. Lookin at Lucky has been drilling regularly—and for the dosage people—Lookin at Lucky is a dual-qualifier.  The biggest question with him is—will he move forward off his successful 2-year-old campaign, or digress? Lookin at Lucky has yet to run on dirt.  He will eventually face some of the other more highly regarded thoroughbreds this spring  | Next- Dirt Debut-Rebel (GII) 3/13

(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb)  Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter.  He will face better next time out in the Florida Derby, and will probably see Rule | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20

(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – The California Bred gelding stalked a few lengths behind Tiz Chrome and American Lion through splits of 23.27, 47.11, 1:11.25  and went past the highly rated colts at the top of the stretch on his way to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in a time of 1:41.75 for the mile and a sixteenth.  In winning Caracortado stayed perfect—improving his record to 5 wins from 5 starts.  He is a May foal that is still developing. Caracortado is Cat Dreams best runner so far that he has sired.  He could face Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII)—as well as Dave in Dixie again.  The San Felipe (GII) should give us a good idea of who is ready to make a stand as the top 3-year-old on the west coast | Next-San Felipe (GII) 3/13

(4) Dave In Dixie – Dixie Union – Risk by Wavering Monarch (Mar) Purchase $140,000  – Dave In Dixie ran out of ground in the Robert B. Lewis (GII) but was gaining on the winner—Caracortado.  This is a horse that should  do well as the races get longer.  He was able to rate well behind Tiz Chrome, American Lion and Caracortado—Dave in Dixie surged to the wire—striding nicely with a late rally, but ran out of room.  | Next-San Felipe (GII) 3/13

(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins.  He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others.  Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night.  He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances.  He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further.  He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby 3/20 or Wood Memorial (GI) 4/3

(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) Purchase Price  $110,000 – Odysseus is light in the experience department—but he makes up for that in the talent department.  He was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last month.  But still had to work a little in the race.  Nonetheless opened up to win easily in 1:44.37.  His final time was a tad slower then Rules (1:44.15)—however he was under wraps as he crossed the finish line.  As the spring rolls on Odysseus will face some more highly regarded horses—but not sure when that will be.  He should continue to mature and move forward off that big allowance win. | Next-Tampa Bay Derby (GII) 3/13

(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Another Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile | Next-UAE Derby 3/27

(8) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (April) Purchase Price $525,000 – Dublin has come along nicely since coming back from a procedure to correct a breathing problem.  He ran on strongly in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn—despite stumbling he surged to the wire and almost was able to get to Conveyance.  Trained by Kentucky Derby legend trainer D. Wayne Lukas—Dublin a son of dual classic winner Afleet Alex has now displayed the important ability to sit off the pace and make a sustained rall. Dublin is another that is a dual-qualifier.  D. Wayne Lukas has expressed confidence in his colt | Next-Rebel (GII) 3/13

(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27

(10) Tempted To Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He Stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted To Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Either Louisiana Derby (GII) or Sunland Derby (GIII)

(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – The talented Sidney’s Candy was the impressive winner of the San Vicente Stakes (GII) in February at Santa Anita.  He was able to snap off quick fractions and kept it going past the finish line, galloping out nicely.  No other horse in the race was able to make up any ground on him. Sidney’s Candy should be able to handle added distance—looked good after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has the potential to blossom as a legitimate Derby prospect—as he continues to develop as a 3-year-old.  Trainer John Sadler also has Dave In Dixie in his barn, which makes for a nice 1-2 Derby punch—whether they run in the same race next or stay separated remains to be seen | Next-San Felipe (GII) Possible 3/13

(12) D’Funnybone – D’wildcat – Elbow by Woodman (Jan) The Hutcheson (GII) winner rounds out the top 12. D’Funnybone stopped the clock in the Hutcheson (GII) in a snappy 1:22.14. D’Funnybone sat off fractions of 22.37, 45.10, 1:09.18 and held off the late charge of A Little Warm.  The speedy son of D’wildcat rated off the front runners and took command on his own turning for home.  He will need to show the ability to stretch that speed out further if he is going to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect.  For the dosage people, the good news is he is a dual qualifier—and has an experience edge being a January 14 foal.  Time will tell if he will be able to go long and if connections are willing to find out. Has a good 2-year-old foundation—for now he is on the list | Next Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI) 3/27

Knocking On The Door

****

Awesome Act-Gotham (GII) winner, Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead – Winner on dirt in first try—ran mile in 1:35.90, Miner’s Reserve – sharp maiden winner at Gulfstream—ran mile in 1:35.87, Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), American Lion – 3rd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One - Won 1st time out at Gulfstream nicely,  Super Saver - Rebel next (GII), Noble’s Promise – 3-year-old debut in Rebel (GII), Uptowncharlybrown – 3rd in Sam Davis (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby  next, Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next,  Eightyfiveinafifty- Speedy colt- Bolted in Whirlaway, Connemara – El Camino Real Derby (GIII) winner possible for Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite – Will have to show improvement-next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Sham (GIII) winner, Buddy’s Saint - Bad trip in FOY will try to bounce back, Backtalk - Louisiana (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – Working well for return in Rebel (GII), A Little Warm – 2nd to D’Funnybone in the Hutcheson (GII), Ron The Greek - 6th in Risen Star (GII), Drosselmeyer - 4th in Risen Star (GII)

(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky will kick things off in the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s 2010 Kentucky Derby 12.  The 2-year-old Champion has yet to make his first start as a 3-year-old—and that could possibly come in either the San Felipe (GII) or the Rebel (GII). Lookin at Lucky had a solid 2-year-old campaign.  He ran a very close 2nd to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) after being wide most of the way.  He has a nice sit back and stalk type style of running.  He has a solid foundation under him and is still behind a lot of the others in the maturation department being a late May foal.  He is continuing to develop physically and mentally as a thoroughbred racehorse.  Bob Baffert will do everything he can to have him primed on Derby day—he knows how to do it. Lookin at Lucky has been drilling regularly—and for the dosage people—Lookin at Lucky is a dual-qualifier.  The biggest question with him is—will he move forward off his successful 2-year-old campaign, or digress? Lookin at Lucky has yet to run on dirt.  He will eventually face some of the other more highly regarded thoroughbreds this spring  | Next-San Felipe (GII) or Rebel (GII)

(2) Eskendereya  – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb)  Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure.  He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths.  He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87.  Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve.  He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter.  He will face better next time out in the Florida Derby, and will probably see Rule | Next-Florida Derby (GI)

(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – The California Bred gelding stalked a few lengths behind Tiz Chrome and American Lion through splits of 23.27, 47.11, 1:11.25  and went past the highly rated colts at the top of the stretch on his way to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in a time of 1:41.75 for the mile and a sixteenth.  In winning Caracortado stayed perfect—improving his record to 5 wins from 5 starts.  He is a May foal that is still developing. Caracortado is Cat Dreams best runner so far that he has sired.  He could face Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII)—as well as Dave in Dixie again.  The San Felipe (GII) should give us a good idea of who is ready to make a stand as the top 3-year-old on the west coast | Next-San Felipe (GII)

(4) Dave In Dixie – Dixie Union – Risk by Wavering Monarch (Mar) Purchase $140,000  – Dave In Dixie ran out of ground in the Robert B. Lewis (GII) but was gaining on the winner—Caracortado.  This is a horse that should  do well as the races get longer.  He was able to rate well behind Tiz Chrome, American Lion and Caracortado—Dave in Dixie surged to the wire—striding nicely with a late rally, but ran out of room.  | Next-San Felipe (GII)

(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins.  He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others.  Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night.  He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances.  He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further.  He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI)

(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) Purchase Price  $110,000 – Odysseus is light in the experience department—but he makes up for that in the talent department.  He was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last month.  But still had to work a little in the race.  Nonetheless opened up to win easily in 1:44.37.  His final time was a tad slower then Rules (1:44.15)—however he was under wraps as he crossed the finish line.  As the spring rolls on Odysseus will face some more highly regarded horses—but not sure when that will be.  He should continue to mature and move forward off that big allowance win. | Next-Tampa Bay Derby (GII)

(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Another Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win.  He is a perfect 4 for 4.  His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park.  He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward.  The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile | Next-Rebel-Wood or UAE Derby

(8) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (April) Purchase Price $525,000 – Dublin has come along nicely since coming back from a procedure to correct a breathing problem.  He ran on strongly in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn—despite stumbling he surged to the wire and almost was able to get to Conveyance.  Trained by Kentucky Derby legend trainer D. Wayne Lukas—Dublin a son of dual classic winner Afleet Alex has now displayed the important ability to sit off the pace and make a sustained rall. Dublin is another that is a dual-qualifier.  D. Wayne Lukas has expressed confidence in his colt | Next-Rebel (GII)

(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85.   He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby Possible (GII)

(10) Tempted To Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse.  He was an $18,000 purchase.  He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine.  He Stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted To Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him.  He should be able to handle added distance.  Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Either Louisiana Derby (GII) or Sunland Derby (GIII)

(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – The talented Sidney’s Candy was the impressive winner of the San Vicente Stakes (GIII) in February at Santa Anita.  He was able to snap off quick fractions and kept it going past the finish line, galloping out nicely.  No other horse in the race was able to make up any ground on him. Sidney’s Candy should be able to handle added distance—looked good after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has the potential to blossom as a legitimate Derby prospect—as he continues to develop as a 3-year-old.  Trainer John Sadler also has Dave In Dixie in his barn, which makes for a nice 1-2 Derby punch—whether they run in the same race next or stay separated remains to be seen | Next-San Felipe (GII) Possible

(12) D’Funnybone – D’wildcat – Elbow by Woodman (Jan) The Hutcheson (GII) winner rounds out the top 12. D’Funnybone stopped the clock in the Hutcheson (GII) in a snappy 1:22.14. D’Funnybone sat off fractions of 22.37, 45.10, 1:09.18 and held off the late charge of A Little Warm.  The speedy son of D’wildcat rated off the front runners and took command on his own turning for home.  He will need to show the ability to stretch that speed out further if he is going to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect.  For the dosage people, the good news is he is a dual qualifier—and has an experience edge being a January 14 foal.  Time will tell if he will be able to go long and if connections are willing to find out. Has a good 2-year-old foundation—for now he is on the list | Next Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI)

Knocking On The Door

****

Radiohead – winner on dirt in first try—ran mile in 1:35.90, Miner’s Reserve – sharp maiden winner at Gulfstream—ran mile in 1:35.87, Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), American Lion – 3rd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One - Won 1st time out at Gulfstream nicely,  Super Saver - Waiting on 3-year-old debut, Noble’s Promise – 3-year-old debut in Rebel (GII), Uptowncharlybrown – 3rd in Sam Davis (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby next, Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next,  Connemara – El Camino Real Derby (GIII) winner possible for Lane’s End (GII),Aikenite – Will have to show improvement-next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Sham (GIII) winner, Awesome Act-Gotham (GII) winner, Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Buddy’s Saint - Bad trip in FOY will try to bounce back, Backtalk - Louisiana (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – Working well for return in Rebel (GII), A Little Warm – 2nd to D’Funnybone in the Hutcheson (GII), Laus Deo – Count Fleet winner, Ron The Greek - 6th in Risen Star (GII), Drosselmeyer - 4th in Risen Star (GII)

ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby Picks Over The Years

2009 - I Want Revenge Scratched Morning Of Derby

2008 – Big Brown 1st

2007 – Hard Spun 2nd

2006 – Barbaro 1st

2005 – Afleet Alex 3rd

2004 – Smarty Jones 1st

2003 – Empire Maker 2nd

2002 – Buddha Scratched Morning Of Derby

2001 – Point Given 5th

2000 – Fusaichi Pegasus 1st

1999 – Cat Thief 3rd

1998 – Real Quiet 1^st

Bob Baffert had a big day at Hollywood Park yesterday taking home the featured Grade 1  Cash Call Futurity, the ungraded Stuka Stakes and 2 maiden special weight races.  Bob Baffert sent out soon to be named juvenile champion Lookin at Lucky to win the Futurity in a quite impressive fashion for long time owners Pegram, Watson and Weitman.

Lookin at Lucky, at odds of 1-5 broke sharply, settled behind a contentious pace and stormed home to hold off Noble’s Promise’s late bid. Marcello edged out The Program for 3rd.   The trainer indicated that Lookin at Lucky would be given some time off and make two prep races for the Kentucky Derby on conventional dirt surfaces.

Baffert connected with Tiz Chrome in the Stuka (4th) and Quiet Invader (2nd) for the Lanni Family and connections, and most impressively with Kaleem Shah’s Clutch Player (7th).  Clutch Player broke his maiden at first asking stopping the teletimer in racehorse time of 1:08 4/5.  All three winners would potentially join Lookin at Lucky along the derby trail as 3-year-olds.

The perfect Zenyatta ran her last race in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  Her victory was one of the most dramatic and thrilling wins in racing history.  She gave us chills and thrills on and off the track.  Zenyatta was honored this past Sunday at Hollywood Park.  She galloped on the track and was then brought into the winner’s circle, where Mike Smith jumped on her.  She might have thought it was go time again!  Zenyatta is one of the most graceful and majestic horses I have ever seen.  She has a presence about her that is overwhelming.  She is perfect.

We can only hope that their progeny will go on to continue their legacy of being champions.

***The 2009 ThoroughbredZone Tops will be coming at the end of December***

***The 2010 ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12  Will Get Kicked Off In February As We Track The Youngsters From Thier First Start To The Starting Gate At Churchill Downs The First Saturday in May***

***And As Always We Will Keep A Keen Eye On Those Flashy First Time Starters That Are Ready To Score In Their Debut***

By Stephen Alicknovic

It’s fall again in New Jersey, and that can mean one thing. The Meadowlands Thoroughbred meet is back. Starting on Thursday, October 2, the Meadowlands will kick off its 2009 fall meet. As a native New Jerseyan I have always considered both Monmouth Park and The Meadowlands my home track, but considering I only live a few miles away from the Meadowlands, it is truly my home track. It is where I have honed my handicapping skills over the years, made life-long friends, and learned some of the intricacies of the game by people in the game, trainers, horsepeople and bettors. In this post I will give a quick glimpse of the meet, and something I have wanted to do for a while, list my top 10 Meadowlands moments. (Moments I have witnessed at the Meadowlands either live, or via simulcast) The one thing I can tell you about the Meadowlands is this, speed does well, and since I can remember, it always has been a speed-favoring strip. A new dirt surface was put down a few years ago, but if anything, it actually enhanced the speed bias. Speaking to a couple trainers, they believe that during the afternoons, the track plays a bit fairer, but at night it seems to be more speed favoring. You have to pay attention to the bias as the day or nights goes on and try to detect it, if there is in fact a bias. (Brad Thomas will discuss this during the live simulcast stream during his mid-race report card.) Sloppy tracks, this speed bias holds up well and the inside seems to be the place to be.

Jason Servis has been the man over the past few years. He will be aiming for his 4th training title at the Meadowlands this meet. He should once again have another successful meet.

The Meadowlands meet is a reasonably short meet. It will run through December 5, 2009. It may not be Saratoga or Keeneland, but it is a meet a lot of trainers do point for. It is certainly one of my favorite meets, for various reasons.

The Proximity of the Meadowlands to New York, and other states such as Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland offer the opportunity for many trainers to make the trip over if they see a spot that suits their horse. Over the past few years shippers have done well. New York trainers in particular often take advantage of the proximity of the Meadowlands. The beauty of all the shippers promise a lot of full fields. New York jocks will often ride at the Meadowlands as well in the evenings, after the day is complete in New York. **For more on the Meadowlands Thoroughbred meet, click the link below**

88 HORSES ENTERED FOR THURSDAY OPENER AT THE BIG M

My top Meadowlands Memories

• Real Quiet wins the 1998 Kentucky Derby | I placed a $10 win bet on Real Quiet. It was my first ever bet on the Kentucky Derby and it was a winner! That’s the one race that I can say started it all. I really became a true racing fan after that. I was already familiar with racing and remember watching the Derby on ABC several times. I remember Easy Goer winning the Belmont Stakes, but this was the first time I actually went there to bet a horse in the Derby. While listening to a sports radio talk show the night before, a caller had stated that Bob Baffert’s Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby last year, before going on to win the Kentucky Derby. He said Real Quiet had ran 2nd as well this year, and thought he might be better then Indian Charlie. I said, well that sounds good enough for me.   (Simulcast)

• Say Florida Sandy wins the Paterson Stakes on September 7,2001 | One of favorite horses of all-time wins the Paterson Stakes at the Meadowlands. I was there and could not wait to see my favorite horse run, and win. My camera broke and I was disappointed, but I had a plan. I went to the track photographer and purchased the winning photo. (Hangs on my wall) I paid for it with money from the win bet. The joy was shattered only 4 days later with the horrible events  of 9/11.  (Live)

• Smarty Jones wins the 2004 Kentucky Derby | I was on this guy from the very beginning. This horse had speed to burn. I knew he was the best 3-year-old by a mile very early on. When an opportunity came to get an early bet on him in pool 3 of Kentucky Derby wagering, I jumped at the opportunity. I placed a $100 win bet on him. Derby day came, and I was at my usual spot watching on a big screen TV. He took the lead at the top of the stretch and surged home, in one of the most thrilling wins at the track I have ever had. It was awesome to see a horse I followed from very early go on to win the Kentucky Derby. That stretch run was still the longest stretch run I have seen, I just kept saying to myself “where is the wire?” Yes! finally. He did it! The was cause for a celebration that evening. (Simulcast)

• Smarty Jones glides home with ease in the 2003 Penn Nursery in 1:22 flat! | In one of the best performances I have ever seen by a 2-year-old. I knew as soon as I saw it, we were looking at future champion. It was simply a brilliant effort. I have since yet to see a 2-year-old that has impressed me as much as he did that day.  (Simulcast)

• Hi It’s Me scores in his debut in 2005| A 2-year-old New Jersey bred making his first career start for Jason Servis in Race 1 of the evening. A son of Songandaprayer. There were no tips with this horse, in fact he was not even the favorite, but seeing this horse in the paddock, I saw all I needed to know. He was as calm as the flag on the moon and looked super. I really loved the way he was physically. I was confident he would run well first out, and he did. He won at 6/1 and filled in the first half of a nice daily double. Charmsil a filly won the next leg on the turf.  He is the horse in the picture on the home page , the one in the lead with the big white blaze (Live)

• Go Go Shoot scores in his debut in 2007 | At the time he was trained by Jimmy Ryerson—another first time starter who looked every bit the part in the paddock. The great looking gray/roan son of Songandaprayer stood out in the paddock like few horses I have seen in the past. He looked absolutely stunning—relaxed, calm, and alert. He was looking around. I like that. He was breaking from post 1, which is not always the best spot for a 1st time starter, but it did not deter me. A good one can win from anywhere. I backed him, and he delivered in a gate to wire effort, not only did he win; he did it impressively indicating this one had a very bright future. He is showing that now.  (Live)

• Cat Thief and Budroyale complete huge 1999 BC Classic exacta | I had a bunch of tickets for the Classic. With one minute to post and the horses hovering around the starting gate, I wanted to get one more bet in. I scooted to a betting machine and punched up an exacta ticket. Cat Thief was a horse I had backed all year to no avail.  My buddy loved to play California tracks and a horse we both had success with was good ole Budroyale. I decided to use the both of them for a dollar in an exacta box. What the heck I said. Bang Zoom! They ran 1-2 and completed a exacta of $1.209! I had half of it. I was with some people, and one said if you have that triple, you’ll need a wheelbarrow to get it out. Never forget that funny comment or hitting that exacta.  (Simulcast)

• Tap Day wins the 2005 Meadowlands Cup | Tap Day was an honest horse who had been running against some quality horses throughout the summer. He kept getting bad trips and luck just what not on his side. Finally he met a field I knew he could handle. He found trouble yet again, blocked behind horses on the far turn, but got through and won. I backed him quiet well and was rewarded with a nice win.  (Live)

• Live Doppler wins at 50 something to 1! | A masterpiece of handicapping resulted in a great score. It was a few years ago. Live Doppler was a filly running in lower level claiming races at Philadelphia Park, who had just raced few days or so prior at Philadelphia Park on dirt. She popped up at The Meadowlands only few days later and was trying the turf for the first time and moved up in class few notches. I noticed the move up in class and the very short rest, and seeing she was trying the turf for the 1st time, it peaked my interest a great deal. I liked her actually, so I made a $5 dollar win play on her. I told my buddies I liked her. I would give her a shot. The ones who listened were rewarded with a $100 plus winner. That was a great night.  (Live)

• Gander wins the 2001 Meadowlands Cup | Gander was a front runner, and knowing how the Meadowlands plays, thought he had every opportunity to win. Gander had been against some classy horses throughout his career, this seemed like the night to nail him down. He delivered going gate to wire and made my evening. It seemed everyone that was around me that night had him as well.   (Live)

It was hard to put these in a top 10 type list, so I just listed them with no numbers.

Calvin Borel guided him to his favorite place, the rail, and Mine That Bird did the rest, surging past Pioneerof the Nile and Musket Man, over a sloppy track to score the mammoth upset at 50/1.

I could not believe it.

Mine that Bird won the Kentucky Derby!

How stunning was this Kentucky Derby?

He was disregarded by just about everyone and anyone.

Obscure trainer Bennie Woolley Jr was reserved, and confident before the race, as he was being interviewed as he hobbled along on crutches during the walkover.

They knew they a had a horse, that was ready to deliver a big effort, but big enough to win the Kentucky Derby?

The most amazing part about this story was his purchase price.

Mine that Bird only cost an amazing bargain basement price of only$9,500! As a yearling…He was later re-sold for $400,000 by his current owners after his success in Canada.

Regardless the orginal purchase price was a bargain.  Who would have thunk it?

A $9,500 purchase zoomed home to win the Kentucky Derby!

In contrast, the $3.700,000 Dunkirk purchase ran up the track.

The rest of the field’s purchase prices totaled more than a whopping $8, 7000,000 combined!

A $9,500 gelding out ran them all.

He stormed up the rail like a rocket

Irony at it’s absolute best.

Here comes something up the rail!

He is rolling!

It is over!

This horse is moving, the race is over

Who is it?

Who is it?

Tom Durkin did not even know.

Holy cow, it’s Mine that Bird!

Holy cow, what a shocker!

Mine that Bird just delivered one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history.

In fact, it is one of the biggest upsets in sports history period!

A 9,500 purchase, disregarded by public, roared past over $8,700,000 worth wonderfully bred thoroughbred’s for fun.

This was certainly one of the wildest days in Kentucky Derby history as well.

Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge was scratched early in the morning.  Another disappointment, in a spring where there were plenty of those.

We heard all about the contenders repeatedly.

The pros and cons of each.

It rained all night, and the track was sloppy and sealed.

It was a big handicapping mind bender.

Never can I remember a Kentucky Derby with as many unknown elements as this one.

In the end it was the 50/1 Mine that Bird who posted the shocking upset.

***I Want Revenge Scratched From Kentucky Derby***

ThoroughbredZone Picks I Want Revenge to Win Kentucky Derby 135

My original pick was going to be Quality Road. He did not make it. Another quarter crack derailed his Derby bid.

Kentucky Derby 135 Contender Close-Up /strong>

Dunkirk is a horse that has garnered my respect for various reasons. He made a bold move in the Florida Derby to collar and pass the super-talented Quality Road, in what I thought was the best Derby prep of the year. He ran that race on a very speed-favoring surface, and still made a strong rally. This 3.7 million dollar purchase will be making only his fourth career start in tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby. Dunkirk has been working strongly in Florida, and looks to be set for a big effort. He will have to buck history to win this race though. He is unraced as a 2-year-old, and no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without a race as a 2-year-old. The other side is he could very well move forward in making his fourth career start. He is moving towards that I feel. In fact, he actually galloped out past Quality Road, after the race was over, in the Florida Derby. The 5-week break has been successful over the past few years—both Barbaro and Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby coming off 5-week breaks. He is a fresh horse. However, the biggest concern I have with him is experience. Does he have enough seasoning? He has fired that big move in all three career starts. He will have to avoid traffic issues. I expect him to again fire it tomorrow, and that makes him a contender. A lot of horses will be going backwards, as he begins his rally.

There are few threats for the top spot in this race. At one time, I honestly considered Pioneerof the Nile as the big player, and he still could very well be. He has a few things to like; he is a seasoned horse with a solid 2-year-old foundation. Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for this race. He has won the Derby three times. I thought long and hard about it, but there is one nagging, overwhelming question that has not been answered yet—he has yet to run on dirt. How will he like it?  Can the Kentucky Derby top pick be a horse making his first career start on dirt? That is a risky proposition for any handicapper. I Want Revenge and Papa Clem both excelled when they switched to dirt (from the poly track) for the first time. Pioneerof the Nile has defeated both on the poly track. Can he do it tomorrow on a natural surface? Maybe he will run big on it, and maybe not.  He won his prep races in workman like fashion, nothing spectacular. He is in shape and ready. Anyway, you look at this horse; he is a risk as a top pick on dirt, but there are things to like about him.  As a May foal, he is catching up to some of the others in the maturation department.  That being said, he must prove he is the goods on dirt, in the toughest race of his short career.

Top Pick

ThoroughbredZone’s Top Selection To Win The Kentucky Derby 135

I Want Revenge

The question of who can get the mile-and-a-quarter is always one of the most important factors in the Kentucky Derby. When I selected Barbaro to win the Kentucky Derby, I did so confident in knowing he would be able to get the distance. Tomorrow there is one horse in particular that I strongly feel will get the mile-and-a-quarter. I Want Revenge is that horse. He galloped out strongly after the Wood Memorial, in a race where he had to overcome several obstacles to win. He overcame a bad break, and a wall of horses blocked his path in the stretch. He fought through the wall, found a seam, and finished full of run to win.  He kept on going nicely after the wire, well past a mile-and-a-quarter. He powered home to victory in his dirt debut in the Gotham stakes back in March. He ran with Mr. Fantasy most of the way, before putting him away in the stretch. Mr. Fantasy since that race, has comeback to win the The Withers in impressive fashion last Saturday. Mr. Fantasy is a quality thoroughbred with a bright future. He did not look that great before the Withers, but anyway you look at it, I Want Revenge ran away from him earning a huge speed figure in his dirt debut. I Want Revenge is a battled tested thoroughbred. He raced as a 2-year-old giving him a solid foundation. He battled through a wall of horses in the stretch in the Wood Memorial to win. He is gutsy, and without a doubt a mile-and-a-quarter is right up his ally. This horse can get the distance, and that is half the battle. IEAH liked him so much after the Gotham that they purchased significant interest in him.  He comes into the Kentucky Derby with the right profile. He went through his prep races perfectly setting him up for another big effort tomorrow. He will be running in the stretch strongly. I Want Revenge is ThoroughbredZone’s top selection to win Kentucky Derby 135.

Kentucky Derby Betting Prospects…Use or Not Use?

West Side Bernie: Ran second to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. Breaks from the dreaded one hole in tomorrow’s race. He should be big odds, and at 40/1 or better, could get up for a piece if everything goes right. User Under In Triples

Musket Man: Horse has done nothing but win. Connections insist he can run all day. I still feel the mile-and-quarter is out of his reach, and the two hole is a bad post. He will have to get position early. Not Using

Mr. Hot Stuff: A big rally type horse making his first career start on dirt, he could go off as high as 70/1. His style dictates he could come late passing tiring horses for a piece. User Under In Triples

Advice: A closer who came from back in the pack to win the Lexington Stakes. If you are looking for that big priced horse under in supers and or triples, you can consider him in the bottom of those tickets. User Under In Triples

Hold Me Back: Another rally horse that has who will be making his 3^rd start off the layoff, another horse who very well could be passing tired rivals late. User Under In Triples

Friesan Fire: This horse has been flying under the radar. FF is confirmed slop lover, rolling home in the Louisiana Derby in the slop. Dangerous off the layoff for Larry Jones and has been working very well. Should not be to far out of it.  He has never been past a mile-and-sixteenth – Saver win bet, if the track comes up sloppy. User Under In Triples and Exactas

Papa Clem: Arkansas Derby winner worked a real fast 3-furlong blowout. A very fast work a couple of days before the Derby is a little concern.  I like his breeding. User Under In Triples and Exactas

Mine That Bird: Over matched in this race. He should go off over 70/1. Would be a very tall order for an in the money finish. Not Using

Join The Dance: Only one of two confirmed speed horses who will go right to lead with Regal Ransom. Certainly a pace factor, but that should be it. Not Using

Regal Ransom: The other confirmed front-runner in the race. Winner UAE Derby in front running fashion. Could be a threat to stay on longer, if he can shake off Join the Dance.  He could also sit right off Join the Dance.  He is an interesting prospect. A sloppy track could aid his chances. User Under In Triples and Exactas- Saver Win Bet

Chocolate Candy: Made a strong rally in the Santa Anita Derby when rallying from last and wide. He finished right behind Pioneerof the Nile. He has a style that could get him a piece.  Never raced on dirt. User Under In Exactas and Triples

General Quarters: Feel good story of this years Kentucky Derby.  Bluegrass Stakes winner faces a daunting task in being a huge player tomorrow. A former $20,000 maiden claimer will be hard pressed to win the Derby. Not Using.

I Want Revenge: ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Kentucky Derby. Solid foundation who is battled tested and should have no issue going the distance. He has blossomed since switching to dirt. Top Pick To Win

Atomic Rain: He just got in at the last second, faces a daunting task in the Derby. Has some tactical speed. Not Using.

Dunkirk: One of the main contenders tomorrow. Has run great in all three career starts, should make a strong late rally. A threat to win it if he fires his best shot  Dangerous. User Under In Exactas

Pioneerof the Nile: The biggest puzzle of the race. You go either with, or against. Is he fast enough one of his biggest question? Based on the success of Baffert and the fact he is a May foal , he has upside. First try on dirt in the Derby.  User Under in Exactas

Summer Bird: Fourth career start tomorrow. Ran third in the Arkansas Derby. A come from behind rally type horse. If all goes right, could pick off tiring horses in the stretch. Will be a huge price of 60/1 or better. User Under in Triples

Nowhere to Hide: Zito sneaks in at the last second with a horse who looks over matched on paper. Ran decent in the Risen Star and Tampa Bay Derby. Zito has pulled off shockers in the past, this would be the biggest of them all. Under in Triples

Desert Party: The other Godolphin owned thoroughbred in the race. Ran second in the UAE Derby in March. Two solid works, and will be off the pace and make a bid. I would not totally ignore. User Under in Exactas

Flying Private: Wayne Lukas is back! Flying Private ran second in the Lane’s End at Turfway back in March, and was a non-threatening 5^th in the Arkansas Derby. Outclassed for the top spot, but underneath at 60/1 would make anyone’s ticket nice. User Under in Triples

Top Pick To Win

13

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Play

13 / 6,7,10,11,15,16,19 / 1,3,4,5,11,17,18,20    $49 Bet

Kentucky Derby Exacta Box Play

10,13,15,19,20   $20 Bet

Saver win bets on Regal Ransom and Desert Party…Regal Ransom should be 20/1- 25/1 and Desert Party should be 10/1 – 15/1…

Good Luck!!

ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby Contest

ThoroughbredZone’s Free Kentucky Derby 135 Contest Sponsored By BetUs.Com**Click Here**

Kentucky Derby 135  Pick And Preview Coming Tomorrow

Quality Road’s Quarter Crack Ends Kentucky Derby Dream Run

Sometimes when a horse falls off the Derby trail with an injury, you always feel a little bad for the horse and the connections, but shrug it off and say, “Oh well, that’s the way it goes”.  Horses are not machines.  They can and do get hurt.  This one however really hits home for me.  He was the fastest, most— talented, 3-year-old of this group.  I liked this horse a lot.

I watched Quality Road roll home to victory in a dominating maiden win at Aqueduct in November, and knew instantly he was a gifted, talented, and incredibly fast, with a future that had nothing but good things in store.  In fact I even bet him in his first race—seeing works like that told me this guy was not normal.  He was a monster.

He debuted on the very first ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 off just a maiden win, and I stayed with him, with no doubts after his 2nd-place run in his 2nd career start.  Some people even neglected to put him on after his explosive and dominating effort in the Fountain of Youth.  What were they watching?

As Friday approaches, the Kentucky Derby pick loomed.  With confidence, and assurance that Quality Road was not only going to be the top pick, but was a solid top choice for me in a field of horses with solid credentials.  Thee horse to run down with 200-yards to go, coming, coming, coming, but in vain as the large striding, powerful kick of Quality Road gets to the wire first.  Played that over and over in my head.  He was the winner.

In life many things happen in which one has absolutely to control over.  I think most everyone knew, especially trainer Jimmy Jerkens that the Derby dream in all probability was over after detecting blood after the Sunday gallop.  I knew it was a bad thing.  Everyone knew.  Waiting for the news that he was not going to run, was inevitable.  Edward Evans, Jimmy Jerkens, and everyone connected to the horse—whether one was a groom, owner, fan or appreciates talent when they see it—feels a little down today.  Some of course will take it a little harder than others.  Obviously, of all the horses in this group he was my favorite, much like Smarty Jones was in 2004.  Special horses stick out.

I anticipated this Derby with such eagerness and excitement, with a horse I saw from the very beginning, entering the gate with the best chance to win the Roses.

Smarty Jones was the only other horse that I had been enamored with from day one, and slated immediately as the fastest 3-year-old in the country by a mile.  As he went on through his spring campaign it had become ever—apparent he was in fact thee horse to beat.  No doubt about it.  I watched that Derby with the ut-most confidence Smarty Jones would deliver a KO to that field.  He did.

I had the same feeling about Quality Road.  A KO was coming.  He had the total package.  As a son of Elusive Quality—sire of Smarty Jones—there was certainly an attachment to this thoroughbred that I shared with him.

No Derby.  No Roses.  That dream ends, but a new one begins.  Quality Road is on another road now, the road to recovery.  In time, the foot will recover, and he will once again be fit and sound, one can only hope this is the case.  A freshened up and healthy Quality Road will once again get the heart going.

June 6th is the Belmont Stakes.  Will Quality Road be ready?  I can’t answer that, but to think he could be, and in tip-top shape is something that would get me going, and especially if there is a Triple Crown on the line.  A certain roadblock to any would-be triple threat.  This horse can run.

Nothing will stop the 135th Run For The Roses this Saturday—Quality Road or no Quality Road.  Some horse will win the Derby this Saturday at Churchill Downs.  We just know it won’t be Quality Road.

New Derby List…

ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 135 Pick And Preview Coming…Plus The Kentucky Derby Contest…This week

ThoroughbredZone will have a complete preview and close-up of Kentucky Derby 135 next week.  ThoroughbredZone will seperate the contenders from the pretenders, give some ideas on the best way to tackle the race from the betting perspective,  and give a it’s pick to win Kentucky Derby 135.  Coming next week…

There will also be a Free Kentucky Derby contest coming.  Details on how to play, and what the prizes will be coming soon.

ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby selections over the past 10-years

2008   Big Brown  1st
2007   Hard Spun  2nd
2006   Barbaro  1st
2005   Afleet Alex  3rd
2004   Smarty Jones  1st
2003   Empire Maker  2nd
2002   Buddha Scratched Morning Of Derby
2001    Point Given  5th
2000   Fusaichi Pegasus  1st
1999    Cat Thief  3rd
1998    Real Quiet  1st

1)(2) I Want Revenge – Stephen Got Even - Meguial (Arg) By Roy (Mar) ($95,000)   I Want Revenge takes over the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12. He followed up his impressive Gotham win with another big effort in the Wood Memorial.  The amazing trip of I Want Revenge has been hot topic in the racing world for some time, breaking last out of the gate, fought traffic issues in the stretch and drew clear to win the Wood Memorial in impressive fashion.  The question of whether he can handle traffic was answered with a resounding yes.  It was a super effort for this horse that had overcame a few obstacles to win the race.  Jockey Joe Talamo say’s he only had to run hard late.  4-weeks to recover should be plenty.  It would be hard to top his Wood effort.  Did he run his best race?  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:49.  His poly races were good, but not good enough to get by Pioneerof the Nile.  He proved he loves dirt, by running two huge races on it.  He has a solid 2-year-old foundation.  He galloped out nicely after he hit the wire in the Wood Memorial.  Is he fast enough?  That is the question as with most.  Distance should not be an issue.  He can get the mile and a quarter.  He has more positives than negatives at this point.

2)(3) Pioneerof the Nile - Empire Maker – Star of Goshen By Lord at War (May) ($290,000)  Pioneerof the Nile moves up a slot to the #2 position.  He has kind of been flying under the radar out west, but the horse has accomplished some good things.  Horse has a good foundation.  He raced as a 2-year-old, and swept through the California preps in good, workman like fashion.  He looks like he would like a faster pace, but has shown the ability to get into the race if need be.  He is maturing at the right time.  He was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby in 1.49.17 for the mile and an eighth.  He is a May foal which puts him behind others in the maturation department.  Another plus is the fact both I Want Revenge and Papa Clem came back to win the Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby.  That has to be viewed as a positive.  Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby.  He knows how to get a horse ready to run a big one on that day.  The nagging question of whether he will handle dirt still exists, and there have been some who say dirt is not his preferred surface.  He could just be a poly specialist.  Anyway, you look at it, this guy has a few more positives, than negatives at this point.  The only real question is, will he be fast enough on dirt?

3)(4) Dunkirk – Unbridled’s Song – Secret Status By A.P. Indy (Jan) ($3.7 Million) The lightly raced Team Tabor horse looks like he will make it into the field for the Kentucky Derby after all.  Graded earnings have been a big issue.  He ran a bold race in the Florida Derby when he went after and caught Quality Road, and passed him briefly, but was turned back.  Dunkirk will go into the Derby lightly raced.  The Kentucky Derby will be only his 4th career start, and it will be at a mile and a quarter in a 20-horse field.  Curlin and Big Brown were both lightly raced and turned in big efforts.  Is Dunkirk as good as those are?  Another obstacle is his foundation; he did not race a 2-year-old.  Neither did Curlin.  The flip side for Dunkirk is he could have very well not run his top race yet.  His big sweeping move in the Florida Derby was a power move going against a track that did favor speed.  He looked like a winner, passing Quality Road, but could not match Quality Road’s big late kick. He will appreciate a quick pace up front, so he can launch his big move.  Todd Pletcher has had little success in the Derby, but at the same time has not had a horse good enough to win it.  This 3.7 million dollar colt looks like he will make a late bid.  He has class to garner a price tag like that.  He galloped out nicely after the Florida Derby.  Connections won the Roses with Thunder Gulch.

4)(5)Papa Clem – Smart Strike – Miss Houdini By Mr. Prospector (Feb) (Home Bred) Papa Clem debuts in the #4 spot after his big Arkansas Derby win.  He finally got a fast dirt surface and responded with a big effort to defeat Old Fashioned.  He had finished behind Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge out west.  He was off a moderately fast pace set by Old Fashioned and surged by to stop the clock in 1:49.01 for the mile and an eighth.  It was a big effort and a big win for this colt.  A son of the super Smart Strike showed his admiration for the dirt with a gutsy win.  He will get 3-weeks to rest up for the Kentucky Derby.  One has to wonder how much the race might have taken out of him 3-weeks before the Derby.  Smart Strike has been one of the hottest sires in recent years.  Stalk-Rally type should not be that far out of it.

5)(6) Chocolate Candy - Candy Ride - Crownette By Seattle Slew (Feb)  Chocolate Candy was the runner up finish to Pioneerof the Nile in the San Anita Derby.  He was in last place as he entered the top of the stretch and was very wide  around the turn for home.  He  made a game bid in the middle of the track to try and get Pioneerof the Nile.  He made up a ton of ground in a short period while enduring a very wide trip.  He was gradually making up ground on the winner in the end, but was not going to get him.  It was a big move anyway you look at it.  He will enter the Derby making his first career start on dirt.  He will be making his 10th career starts overall, which gives him some good seasoning.  If moves forward the way Papa Clem and I Want Revenge did, he could make his presence felt late in the stretch at Churchill.  Jerry Hollendorfer likes his horse.  The only question some might have, has he ran his best race already.  The nagging poly to dirt question is still there.  Will he be as good on dirt, as he is on poly?  He is one of several horses that likes to come from out of it.  A fast pace will be to his liking.  He looks like he is good for the distance.  Coming together at the right time.

6)(7) Friesan Fire – A.P. Indy – Bollinger (AUS) By Dehere (Apr) ($725,000)  Friesan Fire is the last bullet remaining for Larry Jones after his top prospect Old Fashioned got injured in the Arkansas Derby, ending his Derby hopes and possibly his career.  He is in uncharted territory going into the Kentucky Derby off a 7-week layoff.  Another factor is he has never run past a mile and sixteenth.  His last win was in the slop in the Louisiana Derby, in what was a strong effort.  This horse seems to have a few serious questions as to whether he will be capable of winning a mile and a quarter race off such a long layoff.  He loved the Fairgrounds, that is one thing we know.  Larry Jones has been runner-up in the 2 previous Kentucky Derby’s. He was running on very well through the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, but a mile and a quarter is still a long way to go.  How ironic would be if this guy does it, the least hyped horse of his others in recent years?   Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Old Fashioned.  The mile and a quarter will be a daunting task.  Larry Jones took Hard Spun to the Derby off a 6-week layoff.

7)(8) General Quarters - Sky Mesa - Ecology By Pulpit (Mar) ($20,000)  The feel good story of the 2009 so far.  Claimed for only $20,000 after his first career race, he is Louisville bound.  He won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, but backed that up with an improbable win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.  Sent off at 14/1 he delivered a great effort in winning.  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:26.  He has a good foundation under him.  You can truly say this horse has gone from rags to riches.  He was claimed for $20,000 and goes on to win the GI $750,000 Bluegrass Stakes.  His chances at Churchill look daunting, but this horse has done nothing but surprise people on his way there.  How good is this horse is the biggest question?  Charismatic the 1999 Kentucky Derby winner raced for a tag early in his career.  A $20,000 Investment has paid off in many ways.  Distance and class will be his biggest obstacles in Louisville.

8)(9) Hold Me Back - Giants Causeway - Restraint By Storm Cat (Apr) ($400,000)  He won the Lane’s End coming from far back.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start since he was in the Remsen back in November at Aqueduct.  Room for further progression exists.  He made a strong move at the end of Bluegrass to earn the 2nd place finish.  He has run on dirt before, but has not been as good as he has on Poly.  At the same time, those dirt races were a while ago.  Another horse who likes to come from out of it with a strong late kick.  Will he be as good on dirt, as he is on poly?  Connections are happy.

9)(10) Musket Man – Yonaguska – Fortuesque By Fortunate Prospect (May) If  General Quarters is the feel good story of the year, Musket Man is the bargain of the year.  A $15,000 yearling purchase, and re-sold for $35,000 as a 2-year-old sale.  He has gone on to do some good things.  Musket Man broke his maiden at Belmont Park on Breeders’ Cup day.  Since that day he has gone on to win the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby.  He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:91.  Musket Man is another horse with New Jersey roots.  Trainer Derek Ryan is a Monmouth Park guy, and Musket Man trained at Monmouth Park before he was shipped to Belmont Park for his debut.  Musket Man has been well worth every bargain penny spent on him.  The Kentucky Derby poses many tough questions for the son of Yonaguska.  The Kentucky Derby will be his 7th lifetime start.  A mile and a quarter could be a bit to far, and the other question is if he is actually fast enough?  Big questions to answer, but he will be there to try to answer.  Winner of 5 of 6 races he has been in.

10)(11) West Side Bernie – Bernstein – Time Honored By Storm Cat (Feb) ($50,000) The second place finisher to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial.  The effort was enough to stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.  Owned by the New Jersey crew of George and Loris Hall, and trained by Monmouth Park mainstay and top trainer Kelly Breen, West Side Bernie has strong New Jersey roots, as does Musket Man.  He broke his maiden at Monmouth Park.  He was on even terms with I Want Revenge for a brief second, as I Want Revenge swung out for running room in the stretch, but was no match for him in the final 100 yards.   That being said he ran a good race.  The Lane’s End was a clunker.  You could chalk that up to the synthetic surface, as many horses just do not care for it.  Distance and class look to be the main obstacles facing him at Churchill Downs.  The horse earned a spot, and he will run.

11)(12) Regal Ransom – Distorted Humor – Kelli’s Ransom by Red Ransom ($675,000)  Regal Ransom broke his maiden at Saratoga and was eventually shipped to Dubai for the rest of his campaign.  He was an upset winner over stable mate Desert Party in the UAE Derby in March.   Again, they have yet to have a horse that is good enough to win the Derby.  That could very well be the case here.  He ran a big race just a few weeks ago.  Running a race good enough to win the Kentucky Derby will be a tall order.  The Derby will be his 5th lifetime start.  He has breeding that indicates the distance will not be an issue.  He will go to the lead and go as far as he can in a race that looks to lack speed.  He could be out there for awhile with his expected front running gambit.

12)(-) Desert Party – Street Cry – Sage Cat By Machiavellian (Apr) ($425,000) One of two Sheikh Mohammed thoroughbreds entered in the Derby. He ran 2nd in the UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup Day.  Since shipping to Churchill Downs he has settled in nicely and has looked good in the mornings.  He will sit off the pace a bit, as his stable mate Regal Ransom will go to the front and make a front running gambit, going as far as he can.  Connections have had limited success with Kentucky Derby entrants.  Worldly Manner made a strong bid in the 1999 Kentucky Derby.  At one point looked like a stretch to be a factor, but is coming along nicely and some respect should given to him.

ThoroughbredZone will preview the Kentucky Derby and give it’s selection to win the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby…Many things can still happen, post position, pace and track conditions are all factors.

Quality Road Wins Florida Derby**Video**

Danger to Society And Europe Have Both Been Scratched

Quality Road, the #1 horse on ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12, is set and ready for the Florida Derby on Saturday.  The race features two other Kentucky Derby prospects in Dunkirk and Theregoesjojo, who will both, be among the horses that will be favored in the betting.  The morning-line favorite 9/5  for the Florida Derby is undefeated 3.7 million dollar purchase * Flashback* Dunkirk.  Dunkirk was a winner last time, being wide most of his trip, and at a mile and an eighth.  He swung wide and drew off to win that race.  Dunkirk has also received a good deal of media coverage, and has been touted by some as the next big horse.  Tomorrow he faces his first legitimate class test, as he faces the talented and very fast Quality Road.

Quality Road was a going-away winner in his debut at Aqueduct last November, in what was one of the most impressive maiden wins I have seen by a 2-year-old last year.  Quality Road ran second in his next race off a layoff to Theregoesjojo, and followed that race up with a blockbuster win in the Fountain of Youth.  Theregoesjojo can run to.  He defeated Quality Road in an allowance race in early January.  And was second to Quality Road in the Fountain of Youth with a sustained closing bid, and he is also the best horse to date that Dunkirk has faced.

Team Tabor goes to their bag of tricks in an attempt to get Dunkirk to wire first tomorrow, by entering stable mate and 2.6 million purchase Europe who has been working fast in the mornings.  The strategy is simple, have Europe go to the lead and set a fast pace, and hope Quality Road gets drawn into a speed duel with him, setting up the late kick of Dunkirk.  Sounds good, but Quality Road is far from a one trick pony.  He settled nicely in the Fountain of Youth, while cruising along through fast fractions in tandem with This Ones for Phil, who he put away with ease turning for home.  A pair of recent slow breezes is a positive, indicating he is a relaxed horse who should have plenty in the final furlong.  Quality Road makes his first attempt at a two-turn race, and breaks from post position 2, which will be a positive, as he can save ground early.

ThoroughbredZone’s top pick to win the Florida Derby is Quality Road.  He is the fastest horse in the race, and to win, he will be the horse they have to beat.  Dunkirk, a confirmed closer after his first two starts, will make an expected late bid, but has yet to run a race as fast as Quality Road, although he has been working fast in the mornings.  Dunkirk looks set for a good try.  Pace does make the race, and Quality Road is the horse that can dictate it if he chooses to, rabbit or no rabbit.  Quality Road has the ability to run fast early and through the entire race.  He can settle, in other words he gets into the race on his own, without being asked with his natural speed, and that is one of the most important assets a thoroughbred can have.  Quality Road will probably let Europe go and sit off anyone who is out there by a length, if not more.  Theregoesjojo could pose the biggest threat to Quality Road, as he was the only horse in the picture at the end of the Fountain of Youth.  He should rate a few lengths behind, if not more, and make his bid, but will have to run down Quality Road, which so far,  could be the toughest of all 3-year-olds to run down at this point.  Danger to Society will be making his first start for Richard Dutrow, who has had a few fast works, and could run a good race, but would still need to improve a great deal to defeat Quality Road.  The rest of the field looks overmatched, and anyone else would be a huge upset win.   Quality Road is ready to punch his ticket to Louisville, and as a major player to win the roses in 5 weeks with a break out effort tomorrow.  *Weather is supposed to be sunny with a high of  86*

Quality Road stays in the number 1 spot this week.  The much-anticipated Florida Derby Showdown is this Saturday, where (7) Dunkirk and (8) Theregoesjojo will also run.   The Florida Derby will be the most important prep to date and possibly overall this year.  A  preview of The Florida Derby and the likely winner later in the week.

Beethoven out of Florida Derby…

Wood Memorial Day is April 4th…Photos and a preview of that big day will be coming as well.

ThoroughbredZone will be making some changes as we go into the spring and summer.  Stick around!

1)(1) Quality Road – Elusive Quality – Kobla By Strawberry Road (AUS) (Mar) (Home Bred)  Quality Road continues to work in Florida in preparation for his next start, either in the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial, depending on how the weather is in Florida, he could be sent to New York.  The Fountain of Youth win remains the most impressive prep win yet by any 3-year-old on the trail including I Want Revenge’s win in the Gotham.  Quality Road proved he has serious speed, and out ran some fast horses early on in the FOY and kept going.  He stopped the clock in a very sharp 1.35:01 over a fast surface after being on the pace the entire way.  A mile and a quarter is a long way, but his bottom says that will not be an issue, and the way he won the mile was solid.  First he will have to prove he can handle two turns, and that should not be an issue.  He will see Dunkirk and Theregoesjojo in the Florida Derby or they could run in The Wood Memorial where he would meet I Want Revenge.

2)(4) Friesan Fire - A.P. Indy – Bollinger (AUS) By Dehere (Apr) ($725,000) Friesan Fire continues to roll along on the derby trail, and continues to get better and better.  Moves up to the number 2 spot this week. He has been playing second fiddle to Old Fashioned his stable mate throughout the early part of the year, but he stepped out of that shadow with a dominating win in The Louisiana Derby in the slop on Saturday.  Friesan Fire swept all three Fairground derby preps.  There is no telling how much more he will improve.  Larry Jones has brought him along nicely, and at this point he should be respected as a legitimate derby contender.  He has done nothing but continue to win and get better as he does it.  Another big plus has been his ability to rate nicely early.  Starting to look one of the horses that will not have an issue with a mile and a quarter, and that is half the battle.

3)(3) The Pamplemousse – Kafwain – Comfort Zone By Rubiano (Apr) ($80,000) The Pamplemousse is working towards the Santa Anita derby.  Looked sharp in The Sham.  The Pamplemousse was on cruise control from the start and turned back any threat in winning, setting swift fractions of 23.08 and 46.51.  He ran the one and one eighth distance in 1:47.86.  Great looking son of Kafwain might be one of the better ones to come out of California in recent years.  Trainer Julio Canani exudes confidence when speaking of him.  No dirt prep always leaves questions.  A showdown with Pioneerof The Nile awaits in The Santa Anita Derby April 4

4)(5) Pioneerof the Nile – Empire Maker – Star of Goshen By Lord at War (May) ($290,000) The late May foal got the job done once again in winning the San Felipe at Santa Anita Saturday.  Raced up closer to the pace, something he has not really done in the past and fought off challengers late in the race.  It was a workman like performance.  One thing we do know,  he is a little further behind in the maturation department to some of the other colts, being a late May foal, and Bob Baffert is aware of that.  He will meet The Pamplemousse in next months Santa Anita Derby.  It will be his biggest class test to date.  The nagging question of whether he will handle dirt remains, and will be a question right up until post time on the first Saturday in May.  Needs to improve further along, and there is room for that.  The Santa Anita Derby next.

5)(6) I Want Revenge – Stephen Got Even – Meguial (Arg) By Roy (Mar) ($95,000) I Want Revenge made his first effort on dirt a winning one.  He ran in tandem with Mr. Fantasy throughout much of the race, until mid stretch, when he opened up and pulled away from him.  I Want Revenge looked impressive in the win, running through moderate fractions and finished up strongly.  He was in an all out drive, and put together a big effort.  I still think it was somewhat of a hard race to judge.  Going a mile and an eighth next time will tell us more.  A Solid 2-year-old foundation also gives him upside.  He certainly enjoyed the dirt.  Wood Memorial  next

6)(2) Old Fashioned – Unbridled’s Song – Collect Call By Meadowlake (Jan) ($800,000) Old Fashioned suffered his first setback in the Rebel on Saturday.  It looked as if he was going to win by a country mile turning for home under confident handling, but that was not the case as he could not keep up his fast pace late.  Old Fashioned flattened out and finished second to the up start Win Willy.  The race leaves a lot of questions, the biggest being if distance will be his undoing.  He did race right behind a fast pace set by Silver City and put him away, but it took its toll on him late.  However, not ready to throw him out just yet as a viable Kentucky Derby threat.  Larry Jones knows that the race that means the most is in Louisville .  The Rebel was certainly not a must win situation at all.  He has been bringing him along slowly.  Larry Jones is working him up to that race.  The Arkansas Derby will be a critical race for him nonetheless.  Seeing him slow down late in the lane was not a positive, but all hope is not lost with this talented colt.

7)(9) Dunkirk - Unbridled’s Song – Secret Status By A.P. Indy (Jan) ($3.7 Million)  Remains on target for  h is next start in the Florida Derby in two weeks.  Has yet to face a top rated 3-year-old, and that will change in the near future, as he will get his first class test against Quality Road and others.  Dunkirk has shown he likes to come from out of it, a style that could benefit him down the road, but the question remains early on if he fast enough.  Breeding is there, and has the potential to move forward is also there.  The Florida Derby  next

8)(9) Theregoesjojo – Brahms – Slewie Blues By Seattle Slew (Apr) ($42,000) Ran second in the Fountain of Youth (GII) behind Quality Road.  He was the only horse in the picture when Quality Road hit the wire, as he tried to close.  Theregoesjojo won that race coming off a layoff.  He showed ability in surging to that allowance victory.  His running will suit him very well in the Derby if a speed duel were to develop with his late kick.  A rubber match with Quality Road up next in The Florida Derby

9)(-) Win Willy – Monarchos – City Fair By Carson City (Apr) ($25,000) You have to love that name.  Win Willy literally came out of nowhere to win the Rebel in stunning fashion, rolling home in the middle of Oaklawn’s track to surge by Old Fashioned.  It was his first try going long and it was a big success. The win was worthy enough to get him on this weeks list.  He took advantage of the  early fast pace set by Silver City.  Logical next step would be the Arkansas Derby.  Questions remains if he can do it again.

10)(11) Desert Party – Street Cry (Ire) – Sage Cat By Tabasco Cat (Apr) ($425,000)  At one time, he was at the lower ranked horse of Godolphin’s group for the Derby, but after an injury that derailed Midshipman, and a poor effort by Vineyard Haven, he is now their number one Derby prospect.  Desert Party is a winner of four of his career five starts.  Has a good two-year-old foundation.  Going a mile and a quarter always remains a question.  The Dubai-Kentucky route has proved unsuccessful in the past, but also could be an overrated thing as none of those previous horses that tried were good enough.  Still would like to see him shipped back to the states for a try in one of the big US Preps.  It looks like the UAE Derby is a target on the Dubai World Cup under card.

10)(11) Imperial Council – Empire Maker – Jaramar Rain By Thunder Gulch (Jan) ($130,000)  He finally decided to do some running after the race was just about over passing a weakening Mr. Fantasy.  It certainly looks like this one will like the longer distances, but in a race like this with a runaway winner, hard to judge how good he is.  He was the only horse in the field to get in the picture late.  The Wood will answer some questions on whether he will be a factor in Kentucky.  In addition, looks like a faster pace would be to his liking.  Gotham still left a lot of questions.  Wood Memorial next

11)(7) Patena – Seeking The Gold – Handpainted By A.P. Indy (Feb) ($250,000) The much-anticipated debut of Patena under Richard Dutrow’s care was not as successful as he would have hoped.  Raced into contention turning for home in the Louisiana Derby but leveled to finish far behind Friesan Fire.  You can either cross this guy off as a Derby contender, or you can toss the effort due to the fact he may have not cared for the sloppy surface. Breeding indicated the surface would not be an issue, but that does not always work out that way.   He was running up into contention, but was under strong urging to do so.  He never did look all that at ease running on the sloppy surface.  At this point he will stay on the list.  He will have one more chance to show his ability and if all goes well, hopefully he will be able to do so on a fast track.

12(-) Beethoven - Sky Mesa – Moonlight Sonata by Carson City (Jan) ($300,000) Beethoven reappears on ThoroughbredZone’s 12 after a brief hiatus.  Beethoven has been forwardly working in preparation for the Florida Derby on March 28th.  John Ward continues to say good things about his colt, saying he is developing nicely as we move into spring. He also said the horse is getting stronger and developing physically.  The late running son of Sky Mesa will have more ground in the Florida Derby to close into, that should aid his cause.  He still needs to put together a big effort to be considered a serious Kentucky Derby threat.  The Florida Derby next.

Knocking On Door

Regal Ransom- Ran second to Desert Party in Dubai, Vineyard Haven – Next start will say a lot Al Khali- Allowance winner at Gulfstream for Pletcher,  Chocolate Candy – El Camino Real winner,  Musket Man-Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, Join In The Dance- Close runner up to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby

Off

General Quarters, Hello Broadway, Mr. Fantasy

The biggest changes for this week are as follows…I Want Revenge debut’s in the #6 spot after his big Gotham Stakes victory.  Imperial Council cracks the top 12 in the #11 spot.  Stardom Bound a winner of 5 straight GI’s will probably be taken out of Kentucky Derby consideration, but anything can happen at this point.  Ashland Stakes is her next target.  Haynesfield drops off after Gotham Stakes effort.  Click link above for complete list.

Aintree Grand National 2009 http://betting.betfair.com/...

Cheltenham Festival Kicks Off

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Joey P.

Updated Kentucky Derby 12 coming tomorrow

Format- Horses name, Sire, dam-dam sire, month horse was foaled, and original purchase price.

1) Old Fashioned – Unbridled’s Song – Collect Call By Meadowlake (Jan) ($800,000) Old Fashioned debuts in the number 1 spot this year.  Big strong colt was a runaway winner in last years Remsen (GII) at Aqueduct.  Larry Jones for the third straight year has a quality Kentucky Derby prospect.  Old Fashioned will make his next start in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Presidents day.  He has yet to race at 3, but his win in the Remsen (GII) was a convincing win, in which was not asked for anything in pulling away from an overmatched group.  Has tactical speed, which is a huge asset down the road.  January foal has a physical development edge.  Showed he could rate when coming off the pace to win his maiden race, but looked great when running on the front end.  Talented colt will look to continue to improve.

2) Midshipman – Unbridled’s Song – Fleet Lady By Avenue Of Flags (Mar)  The BC Juvenile (GI)  winner has not been seen since winning that race.  Godolphin purchased him shortly after the win and he was sent to Dubai.  He is also out of Unbridled’s Song.  The word from the desert is he coming along well.  Horses that have trained in Dubai in preparation for the Kentucky Derby have done well, but they also were probably not good enough.  Time will tell if Midshipman will move forward off his championship 2-year-old season.  He has yet to try dirt, but it looks like he will soon. 

3) Pioneerof the Nile – Empire Maker – Star of Goshen By Lord at War (May)  ($290,000) Bob Baffert is back with another Kentucky Derby candidate in Pioneerof The Nile.  He is fresh off his Robert B. Lewis (GII) win, where he came off the pace late to snag the win over the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita.  May foal has more time to develop as he moves forward into his 3 year old campaign.  In fact he shares a birthday with Midshipman.  Has 6 races under his belt, which gives him a slight experience edge over some others. Indicating further physical development. through the spring.  Empire Maker has been off to hot start as a sire.  We will see if this guy gets on dirt down the road.  Baffert has sent his horses east in the past for the Wood Memorial.

4) Friesan Fire – A.P. Indy – Bollinger (AUS) By Dehere (Apr) ($725,000) Larry Jones 2nd of two of Derby 12 horses.  Surged in the middle of the track to take Saturdays Risen Star (GIII) at the Fair Grounds.  He has won both his stakes starts at the Fair Grounds.  Has been consistent in winning and will probably target the Louisiana Derby.  Sired by A.P Indy, and his dam sire Dehere was a champion two year old.  Jones has had the ability to keep his 3 year olds in good shape, and bring them up the Derby ready to go.  Time will tell if will be a legitimate factor in May.

5) Stardom Bound – Tapit – My White Corvette By Tarr Road (Apr) ($50,000) An original $50,000 purchase, was resold to IEAH for a whopping 5.7 million dollars.  The big gray filly was the BC Juvenile (GI) winner.  She was dominant as a 2 year old, she came back Sunday to win the Las Virgenes (GII) in her first start as a 3 year old.  No secret that she is being pointed to the Kentucky Derby.  She will target the Santa Anita Derby against colts.  That race will give another indicator how good she is.  Connections purchased Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown last year.  Has yet to run on dirt, and that is always a key factor.  She has done nothing wrong yet. 

6) Vineyard Haven – Lido Palace – Princess Aloha By Aloha Prospector (Mar) The east coasts top two year old was purchased by Godolphin and since has been shipped to Dubai for his training. Has yet to run as a 3 year old.  Connections have indicated either Midshipman or Vineyard Haven will return to the United States.  I have not been able to find out his foal date as of yet. The folks in Dubai have been quiet on his progress, although they say is doing well.

7) The Pamplemousse – Kafwain – Comfort Zone By Rubiano (Apr) ($80,000) The Pamplemousse was an impressive front running winner over the highly touted Square Eddie in the San Rafael (GIII) in January.  He looked sharp in winning and has been forwardly training in California for his next start, which could be in The Santa Anita Derby, but a prep before that is possible.   He has yet to run a dirt track, and it looks like if he makes it to the Derby, it would be his first dirt start.  Always a concern, working well.

8 Mr. Fantasy – E Dubai – Twice Forbidden By Spectacular Bid (May) ($135,000) Mr. Fantasy is the undefeated New York bred owned by West Point Thoroughbreds.  He has won both career starts in smashing style.  His last was an imprsessive winner in an allowance race at Aqueduct where he won in a hand ride stretching out for the first time.  ThoroughbredZone would have put him higher, but there is plenty of time for that if he continues to move forward.  Mr. Fantasy also has some upside being a late May foal.  He should develop along nicely as we get closer to May.  The son of E. Dubai will likely target the Gotham Stakes (GIII) for next start, where he is likely to meet New York bred Haynesfield.  

9) Patena – Seeking The Gold – Handpainted By A.P. Indy  (Feb) ($250,000) Patena has only raced three times in his career, but his second place finish to Friesan Fire in  Lecomte (GIII) was a nice race as he gained on Friesan Fire late.  He was purchased after that race by IEAH who is not shy about going after good young horses.  He is being pointed to the Louisiana Derby.  We will see more of him down the road, and that will give us a better idea of what he is all about.  His breeding certainly indicates a mile and quarter should be with in his grasp.

10) Theregoesjojo – Brahms – Slewie Blues By Seattle Slew ($42,000) Theregoesjojo was an impressive allowance winner over highly impressive maiden Quality Road at Gulfstream Park.  Ken McPeek has been the hottest trainer on the planet as of late and has some good 3 year olds.  Theregoesjojo won that race coming off a layoff.  He showed ability in surging to that allowance victory.  He has yet to win a graded stakes, and that will be the next goal for this one.

11) Quality Road – Elusive Quality – Kobla By Strawberry Road (AUS) (Mar) (Home Bred)  Quality Road was a smashing debut winner over Aqueducts inner track back in November.  He received a big speed figure for the win and was also visually impressive as he drew off.  He has since been sent to Florida where he ran second in his second career start to Theregoesjojo at Gulfstream Park.  He ran a solid race behind the winner as the odds on favorite.  It looks like he will stretch out further in his next start.  Horse has ability and and solid breeding, turf is always possible down the road.  Potential is still there.

12) Haynesfield – Speightstown – Nothing Special By Tejabo (May)  ($100,000) The second of two New York breds to appear on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12.  Haynesfield won the NY State bred restricted Damon Runynan and the Count Fleet in impressive fashion, opening up when asked.  He is being pointed to the Gotham (GIII) and a match up with that other fast NY Bred Mr. Fantasy.  Haynesfield will see tougher down the road and will have to show he can improve, as the distances get longer.  Haynesfield is another who is a May foal.

Knocking On Door

Charitable Man – Undefeated Shadwell colt who has yet to run at 3,  Taqarub – Speedy Shadwell colt will stretch out in the Fountain of Youth, This Ones For Phil – Huge win last out, will look to keep it going,  Beethoven- Wards goal is the Derby, time will tell if this one is good enough, Well Positioned -  Huge second time out win, disappointed in last, must rebound, Notonthesamepage – Earned huge speed figure last out in the Spectacular Bid , Fountain of Youth next,  Square Eddie- Minor injury will sideline him for 30 days, Danger To Society – Dissapointed in the Hutcheson Stakes (GII),  A.P. Cardinal – Must show improvement

Here is another link about “JOCKEYS”

ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 set to debut on Monday.  The top 12 horses will be ranked in order from 1 to 12.  It will be the first list, which will be subject to many changes as we got through late winter and spring.  The final list will culiminate with ThoroughbredZone’s pick to win Kentucky Derby number 135.

Haynesfield heads the Whirlaway at Aqueduct on Saturday

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There is not much anyone can do about horses not sticking around.  Owners can do what they want—it’s their investment not ours.  So I ask, what can anyone do?  I can start by saying there are things so-called media experts can stop doing.  Let’s start with the all-knowing Paul Moran who recently wrote a blog entry stating that bloggers themselves are not part of the “new media”  Okay, yet Mr. Moran sees fit to have a blog.  Why, because he is smarter, more educated, and in the know from years of being in the industry.  Or so one may think.  Anyone who places a bet, or follows racing, is part of the industry regardless of how Mr. Moran or anyone else feels about it.

Paul Moran’s blog entry on January 7, 2009 What exactly is racing’s “New Media?” was weak, filled with presumptions, and flat-out insulting to the world of online bloggers, whether one calls themselves an Internet journalist or blogger.  The fact is simple and straightforward.  I think Paul Moran has superb credentials, but is no more qualified to write a blog than anyone else.  And further more he is not in a position to dictate whether bloggers are part of a so-called “new media”.  The fact of the matter is they already are and have been for a good period of time.  And this goes for all bloggers, not just horseracing bloggers.  Mr. Moran states the only qualifications for anyone to have a blog is simply owning a computer and having some spare time.  As if to say anyone who does have a blog is nothing more than a person who owns a computer and has nothing better to do.  If that’s the case, the same can be said of Mr. Moran, who as we know owns a computer, so we think.  Sometimes I wonder if Mr. Moran owns a cell phone, or chooses to still communicate via smoke signals.  The generalizations made in his blog entry are inaccurate and unfair.

Mr. Moran will tell you what he has accomplished on his blog.  On the left side is a long list of his accomplishments and achievements.  Impressive, but for an individual who has long been synonymous with racing, one does not need to tout accomplishment’s in order to prove that their word and opinion is far better then yours or mine.  Many self-proclaimed experts will do this on their blog, and I’m, not impressed.

I will agree that the word blog is a bit ridiculous, and I do not care for the word at all, but it’s no more ridiculous than Mr. Moran’s baseless insults on his own  blog, no less on blogspot.com, a contradictory action in itself.  Mr. Moran, does not like the word blog?  A word of advice to Mr. Moran, get your own website.  That’s what I did.  There are a lot of things in the racing industry we do not  like, and negative feedback from a prominent racing writer is certainly not something that should be embraced, or taken as gospel, when the people that do have a blog are in fact trying to promote a sport, that in some eyes is dying.  That’s an entirely different topic for another day.

Paul Moran’s comments on his blog in regards to current day bloggers as not being part of  “new media” is also an elitist statement in its own right.  Paul Moran’s message is clear and to the point.  He is more qualified to write a blog than you or me.  That’s the message here, and if you read a blog, take it for what it is, some rant from some person that works two jobs to make a living, barely has any real knowledge of the racing game, and is lucky enough to actually own a computer and have some spare time.

What constitutes who and what an expert is I ask?  It’s not someone who will tell you, it’s the person who produces the material.  Certain blogs and or websites have a theme, and focus on what that particular author knows best.  And anyone who has a blog, and or website, should focus on what they  do and know best.

At ThoroughbredZone we focus on the one thing the sport is, and will always be about, the thoroughbreds that run their guts out each and every day throughout racing tracks around the United States.  There are many links to websites that detail the history of the thoroughbred.  We also focus on the big racing days, such as the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup. These are the biggest day’s in racing.  There are also many photo albums that have been taken throughout the years at various tracks on the website.  And we also follow young talented horses as they progress at ThoroughbredZone.  We also try to give a person who is interested in racing an idea of what the thoroughbred is, and there is a section for thoroughbred  newbies.

I do consider myself an expert in the sense that it’s what I do and know.  We don’t necessarily post opinions on a daily basis the way some other blogs do.  And anyone else who has a well-put together blog is no less an expert than Mr. Moran who touts his long list of accomplishments for all to see.

Bloodhorse.com, the preeminent racing website on the Internet, has even added a section for blogging articles on their homepage from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance.  The Bloodhorse gets it.  Mr. Moran does not.  Some blogs may have more substance than others, but the common theme is they are about thoroughbred racing for the most part.

Another issue that has come to my attention is the way the sport gets covered on the Internet by other websites and media.  Equidaily.com is a popular website that collects its content from other websites, such as links to stories, and occasionally a blogger or two that might post something of interest.  The website is designed in the same way the successful website Drudgereport.com is designed, and there is a distinct similarity in these two websites style and layout. Both are easy to navigate and read.

Equidaily.com is considered a one-stop source by many racing fans for news and information in the thoroughbred horseracing industry, however they too have done their best to treat bloggers as second-rate citizens in the world of thoroughbred racing as well.   Occasionally a blogger will have a link posted, but more often than not, they go unnoticed.

Recently I had submitted photos, that I had taken from the 2008 racing year and posted them on website as ThoroughbredZone’s 2008 Pictures of the Year.  Many of these photos captured some of the biggest racing moments from 2008, but were not considered worthy of being linked to on Equidaily.com.  Promoting and showing pictures of thoroughbred race horses, that one would not normally see, has been deemed not worthy by Equidaily.com, just another example of why the sport lacks the fan base other sports might have.

I sent an e-mail looking for a simple explanation as to why the photos were not considered.  I was answered back with a contradictory e-mail stating that they don’t accept photo submissions.   The only pictures that they would link to are professional quality photos that stand out for some reason.  Or perhaps an amateur photo that offers an unusual take, or goes with an interesting story.  The last sentence basically would qualify anyone who takes a picture at the track to have a photo submission at least considered, since any picture taken is unique and different.  I’m sure racing fans and non-racing fans alike are not too concerned about what camera took the photo.  As in Mr. Moran’s case, the same holds true here, so what qualifies a professional picture?  Viewers do not necessarily concern themselves with things like that, if the photo is a good one.

The err of most racing fans has been usually directed towards owners of thoroughbreds and racetracks.  However that thought process should at least be altered a bit in light of such negative press directed towards bloggers and people who take pictures that can only enhance the popularity of thoroughbred racing throughout the United States.   More mainstream coverage is needed for racing to continue to move forward, and Equidaily.com could be in a position to do that, if they choose to.

To those I say the more blogs and horse pictures, the better.  The sport needs and will continue to need, as much positive press as possible, not negativity towards those that follow the sport.

The shift of media outlets in this world have transformed greatly over the past decade and will continue to do so with the introduction of social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, mobile devices, and more bloggers as we move further into 20th century.  The avenue for the racing fan continues to expand to far reaching parts of the world.  There are also message boards on the Internet that are a place where the common fan and experts a like can mingle, such as Paceadvantage.com, ThoroughbredChampions.com , Dmtc.com and Pedigreequery.com.   Joining one of these forums is always a good way to share opinions and get  feedback   It’s always a good idea to join or look at these particular forums, than to ignore them all together.  The problem is many people don’t know about them.  No links to these sites can be found on Equidaily.com either.

Thoroughbred racing is at a crossroads on how to promote the sport.  The only way for racing to continue to move forward into the 21st century is to embrace this “new media” of Internet journalists who put their time and effort to produce racing material.  Blogs and/or Internet journalists are part of the “new media”, whether Mr. Moran is willing to believe this or not, and will continue to be for many years to come.  Opening the door to this particular group of people will bring new fans into a sport that has yet to find a real way to do so.  A new type of fan, a younger more computer savvy fan can be introduced to the exciting world of thoroughbred racing.  New ideas are what the industry needs, not the same old,  recycled,  information that still continues to be put forward by the same outlets.