D.Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens turned back the clock with Oxbow–who stunned the Preakness Stakes with a front running win. Orb was a non-factor after breaking along the inside. He raced up into contention early, but flattened out to finish a non-threathing fourth. Itsmyluckyday finished second and Mylute was third. Preakness Stakes Chart Video Replay Courtesy YouTube
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 139 Close Up & Preview–In Post Position Order
1) Black Onyx –
2) Oxbow – Oxbow settled behind in the Arkansas Derby and was never heard from again that day. Regardless of where he was going to break in the Derby, Oxbow is headed to the front early. Gary Stevens has almost no choice breaking from the two hole. He had every chance to win the Rebel, but could not hold off Will Take Charge. He faces a daunting task in the Kentucky Derby.
3) Revolutionary – Revolutionary comes into the Kentucky Derby after a gutsy win in the Louisiana Derby. Revolutionary is a battle tested colt, who has shown determination and grit in both his Withers and Louisiana Derby wins. He has been working well and his gallop outs have been strong. He drew a favorable inside post-position and there is no doubt that Calvin Borel was pleased with that. Revolutionary should be fine if the track is wet. He should be going well late. A Top Threat For Win
4) Golden Soul – One of the last horses to draw into the Kentucky Derby. He improved to finish fourth in the Louisiana Derby behind Revolutionary, Mylute and Departing. And that effort stamped his ticket to Churchill Downs. Golden Soul is facing a huge class test, but he should be passing horses as they begin to go backwards in the stretch. Golden Soul ran a big race in his debut at Churchill Downs last November. Wet track is a bit of an unknown, but Mr. Prospector on the bottom is a big plus. If you are looking for a bomb underneath, he is your horse. User
5) Normandy Invasion – Normandy Invasion was going well late in the Wood Memorial, in a race that did not have the fastest splits. He galloped out past the winner Verrazano that day. He has been doing well in the mornings at Churchill Downs. Indications are he will be a bit closer to the pace in the Kentucky Derby. He will need to take another step forward in his progression on Saturday. He is a contender, but I am not as high on him as I was two weeks ago. He was visually impressive in the post-parade on Wood Memorial day. I will still use this horse on tickets. User
6) Mylute – Mylute took the blinkers off and gave Revolutionary all he could handle in the Louisiana Derby. He was no match for Revolutionary in the gallop out. Fan favorite Rosie Napravnik will be in the saddle. He will be making his third start into his current form cycle. Does he bounce off the big Louisiana Derby effort? Resume is a little light, but all things considered–looks like a horse that fits the bill to use underneath in exotics. User
7) Giant Finish – New York bred Giant Finish was the last horse to enter the Kentucky Derby field. He ran third behind Black Onyx in the Spiral. Jose Espinoza will be on board, but Giant Finish faces a very difficult task. He does have some speed and he should not be too far away from the early pace setters.
8) Goldencents – Doug O’Neil will try to have another Kentucky Derby winner in Goldencents. Fast colt exits a win in the Santa Anita Derby. He has a forward running style and the possibility is there he will try to go all the way on the front end. He should like a wet track. Rick Pitino is part owner of Goldencents. Kevin Krigger is also trying to become the first black jockey in 111 years to win the Kentucky Derby. Goldencents has the speed and is a threat. Goldencents will get the acid test in the final furlong. A Top Threat For Win
9) Overnalayze – Overanalyze has one of the best resumes of any horse in the race. A two-time Grade II winner at age two. Rafael Bejarano has the mount and is no stranger to Churhill Downs. Like others, Overnalayze will be making his third start into his current form cycle. Overanalyze has won on four different tracks already–Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct and Oaklawn. He has had one race at Churchill Downs. He ran third in the Iroquois last October. I tossed that race. He is continuing to move forward. Overanalyze should not have an issue with a wet track. Overanalyze is looming under the radar. Dangerous. Upset Special
10) Palace Malice – Dogwood Stable’s Palace Malice will add blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. He is coming out of the Bluegrass Stakes, where he had a decent trip, but was nosed out by the late charging Java’s War. Rain is forecast for Saturday–any moisture in the track will upgrade Palace Malice’s causes. The son of Curlin has a versatile running style, but promises to be in striking distance turning for home. A very intriguing long shot. Don’t discount. User
11) Lines of Battle – The mystery horse finally arrived at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, but was in still in quarantine as of Thursday. Made it to the track on Friday. He is coming off a win in the UAE Derby. He should be okay with the mile and a quarter trip. He also has breeding that suggests he will be able to handle the dirt. He will be getting Lasix for the first time. He still has too many questions. Connections tried same route last year with Daddy Long Legs and it did not work out.
12) Itsmyluckyday – Itsmyluckyday is the most experienced horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby. ThoroughbredZone’s #1 horse on first Kentucky Derby 12. He has had seven races as a 2-year-old. He will be making his first start since getting beat by Orb in the Florida Derby. He has had plenty of time to recover from that race and has a solid foundation. He has a good running style, which should have him not too far off the front runners in the early going. Should be one of the horses to get first run on the pace setters. He has the credentials to be a big player in the race. A big, seasoned thoroughbred. Sports a win over a sloppy track at Calder. Distance is the only issue I have with him. A Top Threat For Win
13) Falling Sky – Falling Sky set the pace in the Arkansas Derby before fading out of it. He has been working forwardly in the mornings. He looks to be another one who will be part of the early pace scenario. He is a son of Lion Heart who ran second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track. He should be able to handle an off track, but distance and class look to be his biggest issues.
14) Verrazano – The undefeated Verrazano drew a favorable outside post-position. Verrazano was installed as the 4/1 co-favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby behind Orb, who was installed the 7/2 favorite. This was a surprise to many. Verrazano is a talented colt, but faces some questions. He is unraced at two, which is a big knock. He won the Wood Memorial, but he did not win it in the way some would have like to have seen. Another question is, has he already run his best race, and will the distance be too much? He is actually the oldest horse in the race, being born on January 27. John Velazquez will be in the saddle. I still have respect for this very good looking undefeated colt. User
15) Charming Kitten – Charming Kitten will be making his first career start on dirt. He ran a game third to Java’s War in Blue Grass Stakes and galloped out well with Java’s War. Charming Kitten was paired with Revolutionary in the mornings at Churchill Downs. The Ramsey’s have a consistent performer on their hands with Charming Kitten. He is a horse who should do his best running late. User
16) Orb – The morning line 7/2 favorite will break from the outside in post-position 16. Joel Rosario should have no issues getting a good spot for Orb with that far outside post. Orb is coming off two big wins in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, where he was full of steam coming down the stretch and running on well. Orb is not stone closer and can run closer to the pace if he needs to. He has been working up a storm at Churchill Downs. All signs point towards a big effort on Saturday from this son on Malibu Moon. Always has his game face on when he digs in. He should like a wet track. Top Threat For Win
17) Will Take Charge – Will Take Charge is one of two D. Wayne Lukas entries in the race, the other being Oxbow. Will Take Charge is coming into the Kentucky Derby off a long lay off. He won the Rebel back in March over his stablemate Oxbow. He has four listed works since that race, but faces a tall task coming off the bench in a race like this. Jon Court will have the mount.
18) Frac Daddy – Frac Daddy is one of two Ken McPeek colts to be in the race. The other is just below–Java’s War. Frac Daddy has been working well in the morning. He is returning to his home track, where he has run his best races. Frac Daddy is coming off a second place finish to Overnalyze in the Arkansas Derby. Frac Daddy looks to be a horse moving in the right direction. User
19) Java’s War – Java’s War was an ultra impressive winner of the Blue Grass Stakes a few weeks ago. He broke poorly and trailed the field, before launching a wild 7-wide rally to circle the entire field to win. Julien Leparoux will have his work cut out for him breaking from post-position 19, but will only have one horse to worry about to his outside in Vyjack, who should bounce right out of there. Java’s War is well bred on the bottom to run all day. Winning from out here with a horse that does not break well is asking alot, but he should be going well late. User
20) Vyjack – The Rudy Rodriguez trained Vyjack will break from way outside. Big Brown won from post-position 20 in 2008. But Vyjack is not Big Brown. Nonetheless the big strong gelding has a solid resume. His only loss was in the Wood Memorial, where he finished third behind Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. I’m still a little worried about some health issues he had after the Wood Memorial. Mixed feelings. He also sports a win over a sloppy track. User
Top Picks
Orb
Revolutionary
Overanalyze
Itsmyluckyday
Best Long Shots
Palace Malice
Golden Soul
Frac Daddy
Charming Kitten
Java’s War
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 is finally here. Same format as in previous years. Name, sire, dam, dam sire, date of birth, and the original first time purchase price if available. A tie for fourth place and twelfth place on this list. More Kentucky Derby links are available at the bottom of this post.
A Kentucky Derby 139 Close Up & Preview Coming
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
April 30, 2013
1) Orb – Malibu Moon – Lady Liberty by Unbridled (Feb 24) Homebred – Orb started at #2 this year, but with his big win over Itsmyluckyday–who was #1 at the time on my first list will end up in the top spot this year. The son of Malibu Moon ran down Violence in the Fountain of Youth-Replay in a race with very fast fractions. In the Florida Derby-Replay he ran down Itsmyluckyday to win with authority in a race with turtle like fractions. Orb has looked very sharp in the mornings at Churchill Downs since shipping up from Payson Park. Orb has a solid 2-year-old foundation. He will be making his fourth start into his current form cycle. Distance is no issue with Orb. He means business when he digs in.
2) Revolutionary - War Pass – Runup The Colors by A.P. Indy (Feb 20) $80,000 – Revolutionary is coming into the Kentucky Derby looking good. The Kentucky Derby will be his second start into his form cycle. Revolutionary is a battle tested colt, who showed tremendous determination in winning the Withers-Replay at Aqueduct, after trailing the field. He showed that same determination in winning the Louisiana Derby-Replay over Mylute in a tight finish. Departing who finished third, came back to easily win the Illinois Derby. Revolutionary’s gallop outs have been very strong. He easily went on after the finish line in the Louisiana Derby. He has looked superb in the mornings. If he makes another move forward in the Kentucky Derby, he is a legitimate threat for the win.
3) Java’s War - War Pass – Java (GB) by Rainbow Quest (May 4) Homebred – After watching the replay of the Blue Grass Stakes-Replay several times, it’s still hard to believe Java’s War was able to get up and win. A very poor start at the gate, and went 7-wide in a last to first rally that will live on in the annals of racing history. Java’s War was installed at the #5 spot on my initial Kentucky Derby list, after running a strong second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby-Replay. Bred to run all day on the bottom, there is little doubt that the distance will not be an issue. There are still some concerns. Should be running well late. On a side note–Saturday will also be Java’s War Birthday.
4) Itsmyluckyday - Lawyer Ron – Viva La Slew by Doneraile Court (Mar 18) $47,000 – Itsmyluckyday kicked the year off at #1 on my first Kentucky Derby list. Itsmyluckyday has had the most starts of any horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby with ten, including seven starts a 2-year-old. No doubt the foundation is there. The big, strapping son of Lawyer Ron has put together some huge races this year so far. He broke a track record in winning the Holy Bull-Replay in January at Gulfstream Park. In his last he was no match for Orb in the Florida Derby-Replay, but in a race where he did not absolutely have to win, it’s a race to not get overly worried with. That was his first race back off a layoff. He has the size, speed and experience to be a player. The distance could be a fly in the ointment.
4) Goldencents – Into Mischief - Golden Works by Banker’s Gold (Mar 7) $5,500 – Goldencents is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain. An original $5,500 purchase, that was later resold for $62,000. Goldencents has six career starts, and has yet to run a poor race. It has not been the best year for California horses on the Derby Trail, but Goldencents has made up for it. Goldencents ran a big speed figure in the Santa Anita Derby-Replay. He ran right up on a quick pace, before putting away Flashback in the stretch, who came back to Goldencents a bit at the wire. Goldencents will be making his third start into his current form cycle in the Kentucky Derby. The biggest question is whether he will move forward, or backwards off big Santa Anita Derby win.
5) Verrazano – More Than Ready – Enchanted Rock by Giant’s Causeway (Jan 27) $250,000 – The undefeated son of More Than Ready is the likely post-time favorite when the gates open on Saturday. The lightly raced colt is coming off a win in the Wood Memorial-Replay, that was an oddly run race after one of the potential pace setters–Freedom Child never made it to the lead. The pace was slow, but Verrazano did what he needed to do, and came home quickly to beat Vyjack, and fend off Normandy Invasion. Verrazano is a good looking colt. He faces some questions, but the two biggest ones are–will he take another step forward in his progression as a 3-year-old on Saturday and is the distance too much to over come? Unraced at two. On a side note–Verrazano is actually the oldest horse in the field, being a January 27 foal.
6) Normandy Invasion – Tapit- Boston Lady by Boston Harbor (May 2) $145,000 – The late running son of Tapit almost got Verrazano in the final stages of the Wood Memorial-Replay, but ran out of running room. The son of Tapit has looked good in his AM drills at Churchill Downs. Normandy Invasion is considered a stone closer by many, but I expect he will not be as far behind as some may think watching some of his earlier career races. He looked very sharp in the post-parade on Wood Memorial Day. Normandy Invasion galloped out well past Verrazano and Vyjack.
7) Overanalyze - Dixie Union – Unacloud by Unaccounted For (April 30) $380,000 – Overanalyze might be one of this years most underrated horses in the Kentucky Derby. Speed figure folks were not all that impressed with his Arkansas Derby-Replay win, but it was professional and convincing. He was an isolated winner and went out on his own alone. Overanalyze has a nice resume that includes two Grade II wins as well as his Grade I Arkansas Derby win. He seems to be flying under the radar, and of Todd Pletcher’s group of horses, this guy looks like the sneakiest one. Ran third at Churchill Downs in the Iroquois back in October.
8) Vyjack - Into Mischief – Life Happened by Stravinsky (Feb 11) $600,000 – Vyjack is a big and strong son of Into Mischief. He ran an admirable third in the Wood Memorial-Replay behind Verraza
9) Black Onyx - Rock Hard Ten – Kalahari Cat by Cape Town (April 15) $125,000 – Kelly Breen and Joe Bravo will be in town to try to win the Kentucky Derby with this handsome and imposing looking son of Rock Hard Ten. Black Onyx is considered a synthetic/turf horse only, but that is not the case. Even though he ran a poor race on dirt at Gulfstream Park on January 1, he has had success on dirt. He won over Aqueduct’s main track in an off the turf race last November. Black Onyx stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby by winning the Spiral Stakes-Replay at Turfway Park. He kept Uncaptured at bay, who could not get to him late. Black Onyx offers intrigue and value on Saturday. Black Onyx Has Been Scratched
10) Mylute – Midnight Lute – Stage Stop by Valid Expectations (Feb 26) $150,000 – Mylute ran a game second place to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby-Replay in March. But was no match for Revolutionary in the gallop out, as Revolutionary looked to already be on his way to Louisville. The blinkers were taken off for the Louisiana Derby, and he showed a new dimension in making a strong late bid. Mylute’s resume is not the strongest, but his last race holds promise he will be passing horses late in the Kentucky Derby.
11) Charming Kitten -Kitten’s Joy – Iteration by Wild Again (April 20) Homebred – Charming Kitten has never had a race on dirt. All seven of his career races have either been on turf or synthetic surfaces. Charming Kitten’s ticket to the Kentucky Derby was punched up after running a game second to Java’s War in the Blue Grass Stakes-Replay where he galloped out well with Java’s War after crossing the finishing line. Charming Kitten has been getting to chase Revolutionary around in the mornings at Churchill Downs. We will see how that translates on the track on Saturday.
12) Frac Daddy - Scat Daddy – Skipper’s Mate by Skip Away (Mar 5) $20,000 – Frac Daddy ran a distant second to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby-Replay. But mission accomplished. Frac Daddy is heading back to his home track of Churchill Downs to run in the Kentucky Derby 139, where he has put together his best races. Frac Daddy has been zipping around Churchill Downs in the morning, and giving Java’s War a run for his money. Frac Daddy is a handsome gray/roan son of Scat Daddy. He will still need to jump forward significantly to make an impact in the Kentucky Derby, but he looks to be moving in the right direction at this point in time.
12) Golden Soul - Perfect Soul – Hollywood Gold by Mr. Prospector (May 14) Homebred – Golden Soul sneaks in at the last spot. The chestnut son of Perfect Soul is well bred for grass, but all of his career races so far have been on dirt. He made a belated rally to capture the fourth place spot in the Louisiana Derby-Replay behind Revolutionary, Mylute and Departing. And that effort was enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Departing has since come back to win the Illinois Derby with ease. Golden Soul ran a big race in finishing second in his debut at Churchill Downs last November. Golden Soul is the baby of this years field being a May 14 foal.
Others Kentucky Derby Horses
Oxbow – Should return to front running ways in Derby. Arkansas Derby-Replay
Will Take Charge – Beat Oxbow in the Rebel-Replay
Palace Malice – Son of Curlin is well bred for an off track. Blue Grass Stakes-Replay
Lines of Battle – Well bred for dirt. Mystery horse should get to Churchill Downs soon. UAE Derby Winner-Replay
Falling Sky – Set Pace in Arkansas Derby. Speedy colt will look to go right out. Sam Davis-Replay
Giant Finish – Ran third in Spiral. Spiral Stakes-Replay
Additional Kentucky Derby Links
Kentucky Derby Past Performances of Contenders DRF
Kentucky Derby Past Performances of Contenders Brisnet
Kentucky Derby And Kentucky Oaks Work Out Reports
Kentucky Derby Horse Profiles & Images Of Each
Kentucky Derby Contenders Dosage And Other Useful Links
Kentucky Derby Past Winners’ Preps & PP’s
Tasso edges Storm Cat in a rousing stretch battle in the 1985 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Aqueduct in 1985. Tom Durkin has the call. Video Courtesy Via YouTube
Additional Links Below On Storm Cat
Storm Cat dead; legendary sire was 30
Storm Cat’s 30th Birthday February 27, 2013 At Overbrook Farm–Photos
Checking in on a living legend: Storm Cat (the photo blog)
Storm Cat Overbrook Farm January 3rd 2007–Video
Storm Cat Romping In His Paddock–Video
Java’s War put together a memorable last to first rally to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, and stamp himself as one of the horses to beat at Churchill Downs in three weeks. Java’s War was the last of 14 at the 3/4 marker, before putting together a mesmerizing rally, while going 7-wide. Java’s War ran down Palace Malice in the final stages of a memorable Blue Grass Stakes. Charming Kitten ran a solid third place in the middle of them running on well. Java’s War was ridden by Julien Leparoux and trained by Ken McPeek. Java’s War was the #5 horse on ThoroughbredZone’s first Kentucky Derby list, and will be improving upon that spot when the next list is published. Post-time favorite Rydilluc went to the lead, and tried to wire the field, but in the final furlong he gave way to finish a respectable fourth. Click Here For Blue Grass Stakes Chart Video Courtesy Via YouTube
Mike Repole is heading back to the Kentucky Derby. Overanalyze stamped his ticket to Churchill Downs and this year’s Kentucky Derby with an emphatic victory in the Arkansas Derby. Overanalyzed ridden by Rafael Bejarano and trained by Todd Pletcher was up to the task with a strong stretch run, after running an even fifth place finish in the Gotham Stakes last month. Post-time favorite War Academy was a non-factor, and was pulled up. Co-favorite Oxbow was also a non-factor after breaking, and settling, instead of his usual front running gambit. By design, or not, Oxbow never got a sniff of the front in the Arkansas Derby. Oxbow, if in order is expected to run in the Kentucky Derby in three weeks if he has enough qualifying points. Click Here For Arkansas Derby Chart Video Courtesy Via YouTube
Verrazano made it a perfect four for four after winning The Wood Memorial. Verrazano cruised close to the lead through slow fractions–taking over and going by pacesetter Chrisandthecapper when asked by John Velazquez. Vyjack made a bold, determined run at Verrazano, but was unable to go by. On the outside the late rallying Normandy Invasion made his bid, but ran out of time. Both Normandy Invasion and Vyjack ran game races. Vyjack’s perfect record came to an end with a good third place finish. The three top finishers should all meet again in the Kentucky Derby on May 4. Verrazano will now head to Churchill Downs as the probable post-time favorite in Kentucky Derby 139. Click Here For Wood Memorial Chart Video Courtesy Via YouTube
