With Quality Road Off The ThoroughbredZone Derby 12 Due To A Quarter Crack, Everyone Else Has Moved Up One Spot. I Want Revenge Is Now The New #1 Horse. Desert Party Returns To The #12 Spot. Pretty Much The Same List As Before With a Few Little Tweeks. Pick And Preview Coming.
1)(2) I Want Revenge - Stephen Got Even - Meguial (Arg) By Roy (Mar) ($95,000) I Want Revenge takes over the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Derby 12. He followed up his impressive Gotham win with another big effort in the Wood Memorial. The amazing trip of I Want Revenge has been hot topic in the racing world for some time, breaking last out of the gate, fought traffic issues in the stretch and drew clear to win the Wood Memorial in impressive fashion. The question of whether he can handle traffic was answered with a resounding yes. It was a super effort for this horse that had overcame a few obstacles to win the race. Jockey Joe Talamo say’s he only had to run hard late. 4-weeks to recover should be plenty. It would be hard to top his Wood effort. Did he run his best race? He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:49. His poly races were good, but not good enough to get by Pioneerof the Nile. He proved he loves dirt, by running two huge races on it. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation. He galloped out nicely after he hit the wire in the Wood Memorial. Is he fast enough? That is the question as with most. Distance should not be an issue. He can get the mile and a quarter. He has more positives than negatives at this point.
2)(3) Pioneerof the Nile - Empire Maker - Star of Goshen By Lord at War (May) ($290,000) Pioneerof the Nile moves up a slot to the #2 position. He has kind of been flying under the radar out west, but the horse has accomplished some good things. Horse has a good foundation. He raced as a 2-year-old, and swept through the California preps in good, workman like fashion. He looks like he would like a faster pace, but has shown the ability to get into the race if need be. He is maturing at the right time. He was the winner of the Santa Anita Derby in 1.49.17 for the mile and an eighth. He is a May foal which puts him behind others in the maturation department. Another plus is the fact both I Want Revenge and Papa Clem came back to win the Wood Memorial and Arkansas Derby. That has to be viewed as a positive. Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby. He knows how to get a horse ready to run a big one on that day. The nagging question of whether he will handle dirt still exists, and there have been some who say dirt is not his preferred surface. He could just be a poly specialist. Anyway, you look at it, this guy has a few more positives, than negatives at this point. The only real question is, will he be fast enough on dirt?
3)(4) Dunkirk - Unbridled’s Song - Secret Status By A.P. Indy (Jan) ($3.7 Million) The lightly raced Team Tabor horse looks like he will make it into the field for the Kentucky Derby after all. Graded earnings have been a big issue. He ran a bold race in the Florida Derby when he went after and caught Quality Road, and passed him briefly, but was turned back. Dunkirk will go into the Derby lightly raced. The Kentucky Derby will be only his 4th career start, and it will be at a mile and a quarter in a 20-horse field. Curlin and Big Brown were both lightly raced and turned in big efforts. Is Dunkirk as good as those are? Another obstacle is his foundation; he did not race a 2-year-old. Neither did Curlin. The flip side for Dunkirk is he could have very well not run his top race yet. His big sweeping move in the Florida Derby was a power move going against a track that did favor speed. He looked like a winner, passing Quality Road, but could not match Quality Road’s big late kick. He will appreciate a quick pace up front, so he can launch his big move. Todd Pletcher has had little success in the Derby, but at the same time has not had a horse good enough to win it. This 3.7 million dollar colt looks like he will make a late bid. He has class to garner a price tag like that. He galloped out nicely after the Florida Derby. Connections won the Roses with Thunder Gulch.
4)(5)Papa Clem - Smart Strike - Miss Houdini By Mr. Prospector (Feb) (Home Bred) Papa Clem debuts in the #4 spot after his big Arkansas Derby win. He finally got a fast dirt surface and responded with a big effort to defeat Old Fashioned. He had finished behind Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge out west. He was off a moderately fast pace set by Old Fashioned and surged by to stop the clock in 1:49.01 for the mile and an eighth. It was a big effort and a big win for this colt. A son of the super Smart Strike showed his admiration for the dirt with a gutsy win. He will get 3-weeks to rest up for the Kentucky Derby. One has to wonder how much the race might have taken out of him 3-weeks before the Derby. Smart Strike has been one of the hottest sires in recent years. Stalk-Rally type should not be that far out of it.
5)(6) Chocolate Candy - Candy Ride - Crownette By Seattle Slew (Feb) Chocolate Candy was the runner up finish to Pioneerof the Nile in the San Anita Derby. He was in last place as he entered the top of the stretch and was very wide around the turn for home. He made a game bid in the middle of the track to try and get Pioneerof the Nile. He made up a ton of ground in a short period while enduring a very wide trip. He was gradually making up ground on the winner in the end, but was not going to get him. It was a big move anyway you look at it. He will enter the Derby making his first career start on dirt. He will be making his 10th career starts overall, which gives him some good seasoning. If moves forward the way Papa Clem and I Want Revenge did, he could make his presence felt late in the stretch at Churchill. Jerry Hollendorfer likes his horse. The only question some might have, has he ran his best race already. The nagging poly to dirt question is still there. Will he be as good on dirt, as he is on poly? He is one of several horses that likes to come from out of it. A fast pace will be to his liking. He looks like he is good for the distance. Coming together at the right time.
6)(7) Friesan Fire - A.P. Indy - Bollinger (AUS) By Dehere (Apr) ($725,000) Friesan Fire is the last bullet remaining for Larry Jones after his top prospect Old Fashioned got injured in the Arkansas Derby, ending his Derby hopes and possibly his career. He is in uncharted territory going into the Kentucky Derby off a 7-week layoff. Another factor is he has never run past a mile and sixteenth. His last win was in the slop in the Louisiana Derby, in what was a strong effort. This horse seems to have a few serious questions as to whether he will be capable of winning a mile and a quarter race off such a long layoff. He loved the Fairgrounds, that is one thing we know. Larry Jones has been runner-up in the 2 previous Kentucky Derby’s. He was running on very well through the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, but a mile and a quarter is still a long way to go. How ironic would be if this guy does it, the least hyped horse of his others in recent years? Hard Spun, Eight Belles and Old Fashioned. The mile and a quarter will be a daunting task. Larry Jones took Hard Spun to the Derby off a 6-week layoff.
7)(8) General Quarters - Sky Mesa - Ecology By Pulpit (Mar) ($20,000) The feel good story of the 2009 so far. Claimed for only $20,000 after his first career race, he is Louisville bound. He won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, but backed that up with an improbable win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. Sent off at 14/1 he delivered a great effort in winning. He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:26. He has a good foundation under him. You can truly say this horse has gone from rags to riches. He was claimed for $20,000 and goes on to win the GI $750,000 Bluegrass Stakes. His chances at Churchill look daunting, but this horse has done nothing but surprise people on his way there. How good is this horse is the biggest question? Charismatic the 1999 Kentucky Derby winner raced for a tag early in his career. A $20,000 Investment has paid off in many ways. Distance and class will be his biggest obstacles in Louisville.
8)(9) Hold Me Back - Giants Causeway - Restraint By Storm Cat (Apr) ($400,000) He won the Lane’s End coming from far back. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start since he was in the Remsen back in November at Aqueduct. Room for further progression exists. He made a strong move at the end of Bluegrass to earn the 2nd place finish. He has run on dirt before, but has not been as good as he has on Poly. At the same time, those dirt races were a while ago. Another horse who likes to come from out of it with a strong late kick. Will he be as good on dirt, as he is on poly? Connections are happy.
9)(10) Musket Man - Yonaguska – Fortuesque By Fortunate Prospect (May) If General Quarters is the feel good story of the year, Musket Man is the bargain of the year. A $15,000 yearling purchase, and re-sold for $35,000 as a 2-year-old sale. He has gone on to do some good things. Musket Man broke his maiden at Belmont Park on Breeders’ Cup day. Since that day he has gone on to win the Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby. He covered the mile and an eighth in 1.49:91. Musket Man is another horse with New Jersey roots. Trainer Derek Ryan is a Monmouth Park guy, and Musket Man trained at Monmouth Park before he was shipped to Belmont Park for his debut. Musket Man has been well worth every bargain penny spent on him. The Kentucky Derby poses many tough questions for the son of Yonaguska. The Kentucky Derby will be his 7th lifetime start. A mile and a quarter could be a bit to far, and the other question is if he is actually fast enough? Big questions to answer, but he will be there to try to answer. Winner of 5 of 6 races he has been in.
10)(11) West Side Bernie – Bernstein – Time Honored By Storm Cat (Feb) ($50,000) The second place finisher to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial. The effort was enough to stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. Owned by the New Jersey crew of George and Loris Hall, and trained by Monmouth Park mainstay and top trainer Kelly Breen, West Side Bernie has strong New Jersey roots, as does Musket Man. He broke his maiden at Monmouth Park. He was on even terms with I Want Revenge for a brief second, as I Want Revenge swung out for running room in the stretch, but was no match for him in the final 100 yards. That being said he ran a good race. The Lane’s End was a clunker. You could chalk that up to the synthetic surface, as many horses just do not care for it. Distance and class look to be the main obstacles facing him at Churchill Downs. The horse earned a spot, and he will run.
11)(12) Regal Ransom – Distorted Humor – Kelli’s Ransom by Red Ransom ($675,000) Regal Ransom broke his maiden at Saratoga and was eventually shipped to Dubai for the rest of his campaign. He was an upset winner over stable mate Desert Party in the UAE Derby in March. Again, they have yet to have a horse that is good enough to win the Derby. That could very well be the case here. He ran a big race just a few weeks ago. Running a race good enough to win the Kentucky Derby will be a tall order. The Derby will be his 5th lifetime start. He has breeding that indicates the distance will not be an issue. He will go to the lead and go as far as he can in a race that looks to lack speed. He could be out there for awhile with his expected front running gambit.
12)(-) Desert Party - Street Cry - Sage Cat By Machiavellian (Apr) ($425,000) One of two Sheikh Mohammed thoroughbreds entered in the Derby. He ran 2nd in the UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup Day. Since shipping to Churchill Downs he has settled in nicely and has looked good in the mornings. He will sit off the pace a bit, as his stable mate Regal Ransom will go to the front and make a front running gambit, going as far as he can. Connections have had limited success with Kentucky Derby entrants. Worldly Manner made a strong bid in the 1999 Kentucky Derby. At one point looked like a stretch to be a factor, but is coming along nicely and some respect should given to him.
ThoroughbredZone will preview the Kentucky Derby and give it’s selection to win the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby…Many things can still happen, post position, pace and track conditions are all factors.
