No changes this week. Awesome Act went on to win the Gotham (GII) at Aqueduct in a nice effort. He was trying dirt for the first time. Awesome Act overcame a long plane flight and a stay in the detention barn. He arrived in New York on Wednesday. Yawanna Twist swung wide turning for home and made a a good rally, but ran out of room. Alphie’s Bet won the Sham (GIII) at Santa Anita. Three Kentucky Derby Preps will head this weekends action—The Rebel (GII) at Oaklawn Park. The Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) at Tampa Bay and the San Felipe (GII) at Santa Anita. Lookin at Lucky will get his dirt debut in the Rebel (GII) if all goes well. Super Saver, Noble’s Promise, Caracortado, Odysseus, Dublin, Dave In Dixie and American Lion will all see action this weekend—A big weekend for Derby hopefuls is on tap.
(1) Lookin at Lucky - Smart Strike - Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky will kick things off in the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s 2010 Kentucky Derby 12. The 2-year-old Champion has yet to make his first start as a 3-year-old—and that could possibly come in either the San Felipe (GII) or the Rebel (GII). Lookin at Lucky had a solid 2-year-old campaign. He ran a very close 2nd to Vale of York in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) after being wide most of the way. He has a nice sit back and stalk type style of running. He has a solid foundation under him and is still behind a lot of the others in the maturation department being a late May foal. He is continuing to develop physically and mentally as a thoroughbred racehorse. Bob Baffert will do everything he can to have him primed on Derby day—he knows how to do it. Lookin at Lucky has been drilling regularly—and for the dosage people—Lookin at Lucky is a dual-qualifier. The biggest question with him is—will he move forward off his successful 2-year-old campaign, or digress? Lookin at Lucky has yet to run on dirt. He will eventually face some of the other more highly regarded thoroughbreds this spring | Next- Dirt Debut-Rebel (GII) 3/13
(2) Eskendereya - Giant’s Causeway - Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 - Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure. He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths. He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87. Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve. He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group—as always—distance is always a concern—he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter. He will face better next time out in the Florida Derby, and will probably see Rule | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20
(3) Caracortado - Cat Dreams - Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred - The California Bred gelding stalked a few lengths behind Tiz Chrome and American Lion through splits of 23.27, 47.11, 1:11.25 and went past the highly rated colts at the top of the stretch on his way to winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) in a time of 1:41.75 for the mile and a sixteenth. In winning Caracortado stayed perfect—improving his record to 5 wins from 5 starts. He is a May foal that is still developing. Caracortado is Cat Dreams best runner so far that he has sired. He could face Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII)—as well as Dave in Dixie again. The San Felipe (GII) should give us a good idea of who is ready to make a stand as the top 3-year-old on the west coast | Next-San Felipe (GII) 3/13
(4) Dave In Dixie - Dixie Union - Risk by Wavering Monarch (Mar) Purchase $140,000 - Dave In Dixie ran out of ground in the Robert B. Lewis (GII) but was gaining on the winner—Caracortado. This is a horse that should do well as the races get longer. He was able to rate well behind Tiz Chrome, American Lion and Caracortado—Dave in Dixie surged to the wire—striding nicely with a late rally, but ran out of room. | Next-San Felipe (GII) 3/13
(5) Rule - Roman Ruler - Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins. He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others. Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night. He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances. He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further. He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby 3/20 or Wood Memorial (GI) 4/3
(6) Odysseus - Malibu Moon - Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) Purchase Price $110,000 – Odysseus is light in the experience department—but he makes up for that in the talent department. He was an impressive winner in an allowance race at Tampa Bay last month. But still had to work a little in the race. Nonetheless opened up to win easily in 1:44.37. His final time was a tad slower then Rules (1:44.15)—however he was under wraps as he crossed the finish line. As the spring rolls on Odysseus will face some more highly regarded horses—but not sure when that will be. He should continue to mature and move forward off that big allowance win. | Next-Tampa Bay Derby (GII) 3/13
(7) Conveyance - Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Another Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win. He is a perfect 4 for 4. His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park. He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward. The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter—could very well be suited for distances less then a mile | Next-UAE Derby 3/27
(8) Dublin - Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (April) Purchase Price $525,000 – Dublin has come along nicely since coming back from a procedure to correct a breathing problem. He ran on strongly in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) at Oaklawn—despite stumbling he surged to the wire and almost was able to get to Conveyance. Trained by Kentucky Derby legend trainer D. Wayne Lukas—Dublin a son of dual classic winner Afleet Alex has now displayed the important ability to sit off the pace and make a sustained rall. Dublin is another that is a dual-qualifier. D. Wayne Lukas has expressed confidence in his colt | Next-Rebel (GII) 3/13
(9) Discreetly Mine - Mineshaft - Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85. He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27
(10) Tempted To Tapit - Tapit - Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 - Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse. He was an $18,000 purchase. He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine. He Stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted To Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him. He should be able to handle added distance. Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Either Louisiana Derby (GII) or Sunland Derby (GIII)
(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred - The talented Sidney’s Candy was the impressive winner of the San Vicente Stakes (GII) in February at Santa Anita. He was able to snap off quick fractions and kept it going past the finish line, galloping out nicely. No other horse in the race was able to make up any ground on him. Sidney’s Candy should be able to handle added distance—looked good after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has the potential to blossom as a legitimate Derby prospect—as he continues to develop as a 3-year-old. Trainer John Sadler also has Dave In Dixie in his barn, which makes for a nice 1-2 Derby punch—whether they run in the same race next or stay separated remains to be seen | Next-San Felipe (GII) Possible 3/13
(12) D’Funnybone – D’wildcat – Elbow by Woodman (Jan) The Hutcheson (GII) winner rounds out the top 12. D’Funnybone stopped the clock in the Hutcheson (GII) in a snappy 1:22.14. D’Funnybone sat off fractions of 22.37, 45.10, 1:09.18 and held off the late charge of A Little Warm. The speedy son of D’wildcat rated off the front runners and took command on his own turning for home. He will need to show the ability to stretch that speed out further if he is going to be considered a legitimate Derby prospect. For the dosage people, the good news is he is a dual qualifier—and has an experience edge being a January 14 foal. Time will tell if he will be able to go long and if connections are willing to find out. Has a good 2-year-old foundation—for now he is on the list | Next Swale (GII) or Florida Derby (GI) 3/27
Knocking On The Door
****
Awesome Act-Gotham (GII) winner, Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead - Winner on dirt in first try—ran mile in 1:35.90, Miner’s Reserve - sharp maiden winner at Gulfstream—ran mile in 1:35.87, Tiz Chrome - Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), American Lion – 3rd in Robert B. Lewis (GII), Bulldogger - Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One - Won 1st time out at Gulfstream nicely, Super Saver - Rebel next (GII), Noble’s Promise - 3-year-old debut in Rebel (GII), Uptowncharlybrown – 3rd in Sam Davis (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby next, Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Eightyfiveinafifty- Speedy colt- Bolted in Whirlaway, Connemara - El Camino Real Derby (GIII) winner possible for Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite - Will have to show improvement-next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Sham (GIII) winner, Buddy’s Saint - Bad trip in FOY will try to bounce back, Backtalk - Louisiana (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver - Working well for return in Rebel (GII), A Little Warm - 2nd to D’Funnybone in the Hutcheson (GII), Ron The Greek - 6th in Risen Star (GII), Drosselmeyer - 4th in Risen Star (GII)
