Lookin at Lucky stays on top at #1—Interactif, Awesome Act and Noble’s Promise debut this week. Sidney’s Candy zooms up to #3 after his San Felipe (GII) win—D’Funnybone, Dublin and Dave In Dixie drop off. These are the biggest changes this week. Not too many changes with Eskendereya, Rule, Tempted to Tapit, Discreetly Mine or Conveyance other then either dropping or staying put.
(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky stays on top this week. Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII). In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two. Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07. Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31. The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt. Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature. Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid. If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI) making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert. One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. | Next-Arkansas Derby (GI) or Wood Memorial (GI) <!-more->
(2)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise debuts in the #2 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. In hindsight he should have been on the first ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI) just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky. ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well. He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface. Noble’s Promise could very well be on his way to a long rivalry with Lookin at Lucky that could last all year. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)
(3)(11) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Moves up from #11 all the way to #3 this week. Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance. Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30. He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly. Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif. Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win. And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race. He has a relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate. He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department. He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt. He has yet to race on dirt. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI) 4/3
(4)(2) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Drops down to #4—No Changes. Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure. He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths. He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87. Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve. He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 Wood Memorial (GI)
(5)(5) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred – Stays put at #5—No Changes. The Winstar homebred and winner of the Delta Jackpot (GIII) and Sam Davis Stakes (GIII) at Tampa Bay has shown tenacity and determination in both of those wins. He ran on the front end in both wins. Lookin at Lucky is the youngster of this group—Rule is one of the oldest 3-year-olds in this crop, being a January 13 foal—has an edge in the maturation department on others. Also sports a win over an off track—in the Delta Jackpot (GIII), which was a heavy track that night. He will face tougher as the spring goes on and will have to prove he can handle class tests as well as staying the longer distances. He had something left in the tank in the final furlong of the Sam Davis (GIII), indicating he can keep it going a bit further. He has shown the ability to dig down and fight on to the wire—always a good asset to have | Next-Florida Derby (GI) 3/20 or Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27
(6)(6) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Stays put at #6. Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did. Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort. Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31. Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his race prior. He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire. The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort? He certainly had to work for the win. He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Wood Memorial (GI) Possible
(7)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdinis Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act debuts at #7 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after winning the Gotham Stakes (GIII) on March 6. A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt. He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow. Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer. He will see a tougher field next out. Awesome Act is aiming for the Wood Memorial (GI) on 4/3
(8)(-) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – Interactif debuts at #8 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. He ran a good closing 2nd to Sydney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII). Interactif stalked Sydney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short. He had every opportunity to dig into Sydney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slowepace set by Sydney’s Candy did not help. He looked good in the gallop, but never passed Sydney’s Candy. All in all he ran a nice race. It looks like he will get another chance next month. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)
(9)(3) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred – Drops down to #9 this week. Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13. He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race. Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sydney’s Candy. He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sydney’s Candy’s lead. He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future. He will have to move forward in his next race. | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)
(10)(7) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #10—No Changes. Another Bob Baffert 3-year-old and son of Indian Charlie has done nothing but win. He is a perfect 4 for 4—that makes him the only undefeated horse left on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12. His latest score was a gate to wire victory in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) Oaklawn Park. He dictated a moderate pace throughout and had enough to stay on for the win, despite Dublin making a strong late rally. Conveyance set fractions of 22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67, and finished the mile in 1:36.94. Conveyance raced as a 2-year-old and continues to move forward. The concern with him will be his ability to get a mile and a quarter. He could very well be suited best suited for distances less than a mile. Bob Baffert is aiming for the Kentucky Derby with him. | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) 3/28
(11)(9) Discreetly Mine – Mineshaft – Pretty Discreet by Private Account Homebred (Mar) Drops down to #11—No Changes. Discreetly Mine set the pace in the Risen Star (GII) and never looked back as he held off a stubborn Tempted to Tapit throughout the race. Discreetly Mine is another in this 3-year-old crop that likes to run on the lead. Discreetly Mine set moderate fractions in the Risen Star (GII) galloping along easily to moderate splits of 24.60, 48.75, 1:13.44 and finished in 1:44.85. He will still have to prove how far he can go. Discreetly Mine is another who is a dual-qualifier | Next-Louisiana Derby (GII) 3/27
(12)(10) Tempted to Tapit – Tapit – Tempting Note by Editors Note (Apr) Purchase Price $18,000 – Drops down to # 12—No Changes. Tempted to Tapit so far is this years bargain horse. He was an $18,000 purchase. He ran a solid race in the Risen Star (GII) to Discreetly Mine. He stalked throughout and he had enough in the tank to stay on until the end—holding second place. Tempted to Tapit displayed determination—not allowing any other horse to pass him. He should be able to handle added distance. Since being gelded—has run well | Next-Sunland Derby (GIII) or Florida Derby (GI)
Off Kentucky Derby 12 – D’Funnybone - Swale (GII), Dave In Dixie - 6th in San Felipe (GII), Dublin - Next New York’s St. Patrick’s Day Parade
Knocking On Door
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Schoolyard Dreams – Just missed winning Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Gotham (GII), Nacho Friend- 3rd in Gotham (GII), Radiohead – Florida Derby (GI) Next, Miner’s Reserve – Next Florida Derby (GI), Tiz Chrome – Speedy colt 2nd in Robert B. Lewis (GII)—American Lion – 4th in San Felipe (GII), Bulldogger – Ran 3rd Santa Anita in allowance on 3/3, Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) Jackson Bend-Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Connemara – Lane’s End (GII), Aikenite – Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk - Louisiana (GII), Illinois Derby (GII) or Arkansas Derby (GI) Next, Super Saver – 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII)—Wood Memorial (GI) Next, A Little Warm – Louisiana Derby (GII) possible, Ron The Greek - Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer - Next start undecided, Make Music For Me - Blue Grass Stakes (GI)
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