These are the changes this week—Discreetly Mine and Tempted to Tapit are off. Endorsement and Mission Impaziple debut and #7 and #9. Conveyance drops from #8 to #11. The rest are pretty much the same, other than a change here and there. The Wood Memorial, Illinois Derby and Santa Anita Derby are on Saturday. Arkansas Derby and The Bluegrass will be on April 10. A complete new list will put out the week of April 10.
And there could be a new #1 on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby Top 12 after this weekend…
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(1)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky still sitting pretty at #1. Lookin at Lucky made his 3-year-old debut a winning one in the Rebel (GII). In his first start of 2010 Lookin at Lucky put together a rock solid winning effort, despite having some traffic issues and clipping heals with Dublin to beat the game Noble’s Promise—in what is turning into a budding rivalry between the two. Lookin at Lucky posted the fastest Rebel since Smarty Jones victory in 2004—super Smarty Jones did it 1:42.07. Lookin at Lucky raced off fractions of 23.64, 47.20, 1:12.35, 1:36.91 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:43.31. The positives continue to mount for Bob Baffert’s colt. Lookin at Lucky has a solid 2-year-old foundation and is coming along very nicely as he continues to mature. Lookin at Lucky has a good running style—rates nicely behind other horses and launches his bid. If all goes right, he will enter The Kentucky Derby (GI) making his 3rd start off the layoff for Bob Baffert. One thing we know—he can handle dirt—and can handle some adversity as well. A showdown is looming with Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). Lookin at Lucky does not have to win this race. Two of Bob Baffert’s other Kentucky Derby winning horses, Real Quiet and Silver Charm both used the Santa Anita Derby (GI) as their final prep before the Kentucky Derby—they both finished 2nd. | Next-Santa Anita Derby (GI)
(2)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI), just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky. ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well. He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)
(3)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy followed up his impressive San Vicente Stakes (GII) win by winning the San Felipe (GII) with a solid gate to wire performance. Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:42.30. He was reserved early—going along nicely, and had plenty left to finish up strongly. Sidney’s Candy was able to hold off the late charge of Interactif. Sidney’s Candy was making his second start of 2010 and was stretching out for the first time—ThoroughbredZone indicated last time going further should not be an issue, after his strong gallop out, and still has room to continue to move forward off his San Felipe (GII) win. And once again he galloped out strongly, and was never passed by Interactif after the race. He has a relaxed running style—showing he should be able rate. He is a January foal, which gives him an edge in the maturation department. He is an easy runner who has shown the ability to run fast early and keep it going late—talented colt. He has yet to race on dirt. He will face off against Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI) in what should be a classic showdown. | Next- Santa Anita Derby (GI)
(4)(4) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya is coming off a visually impressive win in the Fountain of Youth (GII) where he earned a big speed figure. He sat off a moderate pace and made his move—passing Jackson Bend turning for home and opened up on him to win by 8 1/2 lengths. It was a nice win, but not as easy as it looked. He completed the one-mile and one-eighth race in 1:48.87. Todd Pletcher is confident in his talented horse and has indicated he will continue to improve. He is also one of the best-bred horses in this group. As always distance is always a concern, but he is one that should not have an issue with a mile and a quarter. He will face Awesome Act Wood Memorial (GI). | Next-Wood Memorial (GI)
(5)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) –Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did. Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort. Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31. Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race. He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire. The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort? He certainly had to work for the win. He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)
(6)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – A long plane flight and a stay in New York’s detention barn was not enough to stop the son of Awesome Again from getting it done in his first race ever on dirt in the Gotham (GIII). He showed a nice burst of energy in the lane as he kicked clear— was able to hold off the New York bred, Yawanna Twist—who ran a nice race in only his 3rd career start for Richard Dutrow. Awesome Act should not have a problem going longer. Awesome Act will face off against Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI). The Wood Memorial should give us a good gauge on how good these two colts are. | Next- Wood Memorial (GI)
(7)(-) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement debuts at #7 after showing up on the scene with a huge effort to win the Sunland Derby (GIII) over heavy favorite Conveyance. Endorsement was making only his 4th career start, and it was his first in graded stakes competition. Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2026 at Oaklawn Park. The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge win over a horse that was expected to win. The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away. The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46. It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement. He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions. 3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is. If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that could mean good things at Churchill Downs. He has a nice stalking style. Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby
(8)(7) Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII). Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short. He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help. He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy. All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)
(9)(-) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 - Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand. Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time. He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII). The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will. Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race. Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win. A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed. A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32. Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?
(10)(11) Caracortado – Cat Dreams – Mons Venus by Marias Mon (May) Homebred –Caracortado suffered his first loss of his short career in the San Felipe (GII) on 3/13. He was faced with his first class test, and all things considered, did not run a bad race. Stalking throughout the race, he made a 4 wide bid turning for home, but was unable to make up any ground on Sidney’s Candy. He was running behind relatively moderate fractions throughout, and was unable to cut into Sidney’s Candy’s lead. He should benefit from a faster pace up front in the future. He will have to move forward in his next race. He will face Sidney’s Candy and Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). | Next – Santa Anita Derby (GI)
(11)(8) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement. Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly. The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46. Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late. The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more. Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing. Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert? The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well. Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby. I still think Mr. Baffert expected to win this race. Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?
(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI). Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion. Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win. Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds. Here is an interesting tid-bit—Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth. Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day. Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby. The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully. Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya. What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year. The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario. Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause. Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next - Kentucky Derby
(12)(10) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits. All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire. He did stay on to finish a game 3rd. The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth. He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time. Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances. His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now. The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break. He will come into the race well rested. Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end. If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby
Knocking On Door
Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer - 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince - 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), American Lion – Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Tiz the One – Followed up 1st time win with allowance win 3/14 at a mile, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- Next Wood Memorial (GI) Next, Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – Next Wood Memorial (GI), Yawanna Twist- Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI), Alphie’s Bet- Next Santa Anita Derby (GI), Backtalk - Next Illinois Derby (GIII), Dave In Dixie – Next Illinois Derby (GIII)
