Updated ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming Tuesday
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And NJ Bred Together Indy Wins The Commonwealth At Keeneland! ThoroughbredZone Flashback http://bit.ly/9j3dN
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Big changes this week—Sidney’s Candy takes over at #1—moving up from #3. Eskendereya moves up to #2. Lookin at Lucky drops to #3. American Lion debuts in the #10 spot. Caracortado drops off. Endorsement moves up to #4. Noble’s Promise drops to #5. Odysseus drops to #7. Interactif moves up to #6. These are the most notable changes this week. #1 through #5 have have been shaken up. Things are getting very interesting as we close in on May 1, 2010.
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Next Week There Will Be A Complete Updated ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 After The Arkansas Derby & Blue Grass
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ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12
(1)(3) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred – Sidney’s Candy takes over as the #1 spot on ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 after putting together another dazzling performance in winning the Santa Anita Derby (GI). ThoroughbredZone has been high on this horse since his sharp win in the San Vicente (GII). He followed that win by putting together another awesome front-running win in the San Felipe (GII). Sidney’s Candy topped both those efforts by winning the Santa Anita Derby (GI) to make it three straight wins. Sidney’s Candy broke on top and never looked back after briefly stumbling out of the gate easily galloping along until the top of the stretch. When Joe Talamo asked Sidney’s Candy for more—he responded with another explosion of power to draw clear. It was lights out for the rest of the field after that. Sidney’s Candy set moderate fractions of 24.00, 48.50, 1:12.33, 1:35.55 and stopped the clock in a sharp 1:48.00 flat—and he rocketed home in a fast 12.45. Sidney’s Candy margin of victory was four and a half lengths. Setsuko made a belated rally, but it was not nearly enough. Sidney’s Candy was making his first career start at a one and one eighth miles. He went past the wire strongly, never showing signs of exhaustion, and never being passed by any horse as he galloped out after crossing the finish line. Sidney’s Candy has a nice fluid, easy running style. He has a superb cruising speed, and he does it all on his own, never being asked for anything in the early stages of a race. And he is capable of going faster in his cruising mode. One question that he will face is—can he handle dirt? Everything has come easy for this colt so far. The dirt question will loom, but he should have no issue with it. In fact he could very well improve on dirt. There is also the question as to how he will handle other speed horses. Any horse that goes to the lead will have to deal with him, and that won’t be an easy task. Sidney’s Candy is a naturally fast runner. If he improves further more off his Santa Anita Derby (GI) at Churchill Downs, he will be difficult to deal with. He has improved with each race this year up until now. The Kentucky Derby will be his fourth start off the layoff, and he will be cycling up to a peak effort. Sidney’s Candy also has the advantage of being a January foal, giving him an edge in the maturation department. Sidney’s Candy has speed and stamina—going a mile and a quarter will be no issue. He defeated American Lion with ease in the San Felipe (GII)—who came back to win the Illinois Derby (GIII). Sidney’s Candy is as talented Thoroughbred. The sky is limit with this guy. | Next-Kentucky Derby
(2)(4) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya followed his big Fountain of Youth (GII) win by stomping out five other foes in the Wood Memorial (GI), going on to win by almost 10 lengths. Eskendereya never had to do too much in the Wood Memorial (GI). Eskendereya rated right off Most Happy Fella and Jackson Bend, through slow fractions of 24.32, 49.21 and 1:13.54. Eskendereya took over the lead turning for home in a hand ride. Eskendereya cruised home under the guidance of John Velasquez—who took a few peaks behind, only to see the others horses getting smaller as Eskendereya’s lead widened on a field that was no match for him on this day. The win a public workout for the son of Giant’s Causeway—who never once saw the whip. Eskendereya sporting front bandages for the first time stopped the clock in 1:49.97 over a fast track. Eskendereya came home in a fast 12.24 after sitting off lazy splits. Eskendereya stamped himself as the probable post time favorite when he enters the gate in the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya is a large, well built horse who will see his first class test in the Kentucky Derby, and it’s where he will see Sidney’s Candy, among others up close and personal—in what could be shaping up as a classic west coast vs. east coast showdown between the two. Eskendereya will be put to the test when he faces Sidney’s Candy. He will most certainly be the best horse he has seen. Eskendereya has a lot of talent, going a mile and a quarter will not be an issue. The one question that could be a concern is—was the Wood Memorial (GI) too easy of a race for him? He certainly looks the part. We will see soon enough. | Next-Kentucky Derby
(3)(1) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky kicked off the first ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 on top—he slips to #3 this week after his troubled 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). ThoroughbredZone indicated before the race, that this was far from a must win situation for the son of Smart Strike. Lookin at Lucky locked up a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs a long time ago. In Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (GI) he went off as the odds on choice. He was stalking not too far behind Sidney’s Candy along the rail when he ran into some trouble— jockey Garret Gomez had to check Lookin at Lucky as he approached the turn for home, ending any chance at beating Sidney’s Candy at that point, and even if he had no issues, it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy. Why he was down on the rail is another story. Lookin at Lucky will still head to Churchill Down with the best foundation of any horse in the race. He has already proved he can handle dirt, and his stalking style will have him in contention throughout. Bob Baffert’s Real Quiet and Silver Charm, both ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (GI)—they both went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Lookin at Lucky will no longer be considered the horse to beat now at Churchill Downs, where he will face off against Sidney’s Candy and Eskendereya. Lookin at Lucky still has plenty of upside. He did not have the best of trips in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). Bob Baffert knows how to get a horse ready for the Kentucky Derby. Lookin at Lucky should come into the race in good order, and ready for a peak effort. Nothing comes easy in the Kentucky Derby—this year will be no exception. | Next Kentucky Derby
(4)(7) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement zooms up to #4 spot this week Endorsement was making only his 4th career start in the Sunland Derby(GIII), and it was his first attempt in graded stakes competition. Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2026 at Oaklawn Park. The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win. The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away. The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46. It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement. He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions. 3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is. If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs. He has a nice stalking style of running. Endorsement shows up on the scene with a big win. | Next- Kentucky Derby
(5)(2) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 – Noble’s Promise drops down to #5 this week by no fault of his own. It could be a temporary dip—with a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI) he could jump right back up. Noble’s Promise ran right with Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions—The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI), The Cash Call Futurity (GI), just missing each time—his latest miss was in the Rebel (GII) where he was just nipped at the wire by the determined Lookin at Lucky. ThoroughbredZone had mentioned that Tempted to Tapit was this year’s bargain, but this guy has turned out to be a huge bargain as well. He was an original $10,000 purchase who has gone on to earn $793,500. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation and passed the dirt test in his first race over the surface. | Next –Arkansas Derby (GI)
(6)(8 Interactif – Broken Vow – Broad Pennant by Broad Brush (Feb) Homebred – He ran a good closing 2nd to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII). Interactif stalked Sidney’s Candy throughout moderate fractions of 24.39, 48.55, 1:13.53, 1:36.26 and came with a late bid, only to come up short. He had every opportunity to dig into Sidney’s Candy, and did, but was unable to go by late—slow pace set by Sidney’s Candy did not help. He looked good in the gallop out, but never passed Sidney’s Candy. All in all he ran a nice race. He will face Odysseus in the Blue Grass (GI) | Next – Blue Grass (GI)
(7)(5) Odysseus – Malibu Moon – Permission Hill by Conquistador Cialo (Apr) – Drops to #7 this week. Odysseus put together a strong rally turning for home in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), and looked like he would be unable to sustain it—but he did. Odysseus showed heart and determination in refusing to lose the (GIII) Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver set the pace, but was past by Schoolyard Dreams, who looked to hit the wire first, but Odysseus somehow was able to re-rally and get his nose down at the wire to the inside of Schoolyard Dreams in a gusty effort. Fractions for the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) were 23.52, 47.02, 1:11.74, 1:37.42 and the final time was 1:44.31. Odysseus was making only his fourth lifetime start in the Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) after a run-a-way allowance win in his prior race. He showed the important ability to fight on to the wire. The question that will remain after this race is how much did the effort take out of him, and will he move forward off the effort? He certainly had to work for the win. He will also have to show he can run faster down the road. | Next-Blue Grass (GI)
(8)(6) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred – Awesome Act drops to #8 this week. Awesome Act the winner of the Gotham (GIII) back in March was no match for Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial (GI) this past Saturday. Turning for home Awesome Act was in a good stalking position, and Julien Leparoux had Awesome Act in a hammerlock turning gore home, but when he was called upon to make a run, he was unable to sustain a strong rally. Awesome Act was unable to make up any ground on the run-a-way winner Eskendereya. Awesome Act was making his second start off a layoff in the Wood Memorial (GI). He ran a very strong race in the Gotham (GIII) and how much that might have taken out of him is something that should be considered. Awesome Act had to overcome a long plane flight and a stay in the detention barn before winning the Gotham (GIII). Awesome Act lost a shoe coming out of the starting gate, and that is not a good thing. And the lazy fractions were of no help. He will need a faster pace—Gotham (GIII) fractions were very sharp, setting up his strong late rally. It looks like connections intend to go forward to Churchill Downs. He would be making his third start off the layoff, but he will have to show he can run faster. He faces a tall order in a few weeks, nothing is impossible, but nonetheless he will have to ramp it up a few notches to be considered a real threat to win the roses. The faster the pace, the better off he will be. He should improve off his Wood Memorial (GI) effort. | Next-Kentucky Derby
(9)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impaziple debuts in the #9 this week after winning the Louisiana Derby (GII) in his 5th career start for trainer Todd Pletcher—who is once again holding a nice Kentucky Derby hand. Mission Impazible was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time. He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII). The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby if the connections opt to go—and it looks they will. Mission Impaziple stalked the pace set by A Little Warm—who battled with Discreetly Mine before putting him away in the late stages of the race. Mission Impaziple surged passed a stubborn A Little Warm in the final furlong to get the win. A Little Warm dictated the fractions before being passed. A Little Warm set fractions of 23.55, 47.89, 1:12.07, 1:37.52 and the final time was 1:50.32. Mission Impazible raced twice as a two-year-old. | Next – Kentucky Derby?
(10)(-)American Lion - Tiznow - Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred - The parade of Winstar Farm horses that will run in this years Kentucky Derby continue to grow. American Lion debuts in the # 10 this week after winning the Illinois Derby (GIII) in his dirt debut. American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back. American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race. He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race. American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March. Winstar farm has a another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby in the likes of American Lion. | Next-Kentucky Derby
(11)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Drops down to #12 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement. Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly. The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46. Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late. The concern with Conveyance was his ability to go long, and this effort raises those concerns even more. Conveyance is a big, fast horse that is still developing. Bob Baffert has stated he believes that Conveyance is a Kentucky Derby horse, and who is to question Bob Baffert? The question is, and will remain is his ability to go longer, and the way the race is shaping up, he will have to deal with some other speeds as well. Conveyance’s place in the starting gate was assured before the Sunland Derby (GIII) and Bob Baffert is more concerned about having him ready to run his best race in the Derby. Conveyance still has some big questions to answer in regard to going a mile and a quarter. | Next- Kentucky Derby?
(12)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in Saturday’s Florida Derby (GI). Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion. Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win. Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds. Here is an interesting tid-bit— Eskendereya ran the mile and one eighth in the Fountain of Youth (GII) in 1:48.87 over the same surface—only .32 faster than Ice Box for whatever that’s worth. Ice Box’s win is somewhat interesting, coming from far behind on a track that was kind to horses running on or near the lead all day. Ice Box went against the grain to get the job done for Nick Zito—who will once again show up at Churchill Downs with an entry in the Kentucky Derby. The race certainly set up for a horse to come off the pace with such a fast pace—none of the horses stretching out were able to stretch out successfully. Ice Box was a well-beaten 5th by 12 lengths in the Fountain of Youth (GII) to Eskenderya. What might that tells about Eskenderya? The Wood Memorial (GI) is shaping a very important Kentucky Derby prep race this year. The one thing we might have found out is, Ice Box will almost certainly be far off the pace in the Kentucky Derby and make a late bid, where he finishes is another question, especially depending upon the pace scenario. Nick Zito knows how to get a horse ready for the derby, and that should help his cause. Ice Box broke his maiden at the Meadowlands on October 30, 2009. | Next – Kentucky Derby
(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Homebred The Winstar Homebred set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits. All in all Rule ran a solid race on the pace in a race that promised to have enough speed to keep him company early, however he was unable to maintain his speed to the wire. He did stay on to finish a game 3rd. The Florida Derby (GI) was the biggest test to date for Rule, and the first time he stretched to a mile and an eighth. He did not rate, something I thought we might see from him for the first time. Plans are to continue on to the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, and the way things are setting up, there will be others who have a similar running style, which could compromise his chances. His ability to go the mile and a quarter after the Florida Derby (GI) is a bit of a question mark now. The Florida Derby (GI) was only his 2nd start since December 4, 2009. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start of the year—it will be off a 6-week break. He will come into the race well rested. Once again though, Rule showed determination in fighting on till the end. If things don’t work out going long, he should be a very good miler. | Next -Kentucky Derby
Knocking On Door
Dicreetly Mine – 4th in Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm – 2nd in Louisiana Derby (GII), Drosselmeyer – 3rd In Louisiana Derby (GII), Pleasant Prince – 2nd in Florida Derby (GI), Super Saver – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), Make Music For Me – Next Blue Grass Stakes (GI), Tempted to Tapit – 3rd in Sunland Derby, Dublin – Next Arkansas Derby (GI), Tiz the One – Talented son of Tiznow, Uptowncharlybrown – 5th in Tampa Bay Derby (GIII), Jackson Bend- 2nd in Wood Memorial (GI), Deans Kitten – Lane’s End (GII) Winner, Schoolyard Dreams – 4th in Wood Memorial (GI), Yawanna Twist- 2nd in Illinois Derby (GIII), Aikenite – Next Blue Grass (GI)
