Eskendereya Out Of The Kentucky Derby
Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 Coming—And Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview
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ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 For Week of 4/12/10
(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Sidney’s Candy remains on top. Sidney’s Candy will prepare for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Sidney’s Candy is coming off an impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he led every step of the way, and stopped the clock in an sharp 1:48 flat over the Pro-Ride surface. Sidney’s Candy will be making his first career start on dirt in the Kentucky Derby. Always a question when a horse is doing something for the first time, but there is nothing to indicate he won’t run well on it. Further improvement on dirt is expected. Speedy colt has a fast cruising speed, and is able to relax as he goes. He should see plenty of other speed in the Kentucky Derby, but if he runs his race, he could very well be the speed of the speed. He does things easy, and it’s not out of the question he can settle off the pace if need be. He will be making his 4th start off the layoff, and will be sitting on another big race. Distance is no concern at this point.
(2)(2) Eskendereya – Giant’s Causeway – Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew (Feb) Purchase Price $250,000 – Eskendereya will be the probable post time favorite in this years Kentucky Derby, coming off back to back romps in the Fountain of Youth (GII) and Wood Memorial (GI) where he earned two big speed figures. The large son of Giant’s Causeway certainly looks the part. He is a big, strong muscular horse. Eskendereya was not challenged in either the Fountain of Youth (GII) or the Wood Memorial (GI), drawing off to win in a hand ride in the Wood. The pros are he is bred to go a mile and a quarter. He is talented, but has yet to see a real stiff pace, or better quality horses. The biggest question is whether his win in the Wood Memorial (GI) was too easy of a race. He will get a test at Churchill Downs, but the talent to get it done is there.
(3)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 – Lookin at Lucky is coming off a tough trip in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), where he ran into some traffic issues turning for home. He finished a troubled third to Sidney’s Candy. If Lookin at Lucky had a clean trip it still would have been a tall task to catch Sidney’s Candy. The Santa Anita Derby (GI) was far from a must win situation for Lookin at Lucky. He locked up a spot in the Kentucky Derby a long time ago, and leads the pack in graded earnings. Lookin at Lucky is a very seasoned 3-year-old. He raced at two, and has progressed nicely leading up to the Kentucky Derby. He is still developing as a 3-year-old. He is a late May foal, which makes him one of the youngest horses in the race. Bob Baffert’s master plan has always been to get this horse to Kentucky ready for his best race. He may be light in the speed figure department, but makes that up with experience, and continuing maturation. He still may have not run his best race yet.
(4)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 Endorsement broke his maiden in his last race on February 10, 2026 at Oaklawn Park. The Sunland Derby (GIII) was his first race since that maiden win, and it was a huge victory over a horse that was expected to win. The son of Distorted Humor stalked Conveyance right from the get go, never letting him get far away. The fractions set by Conveyance were 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91, 1:35.88 and the final time for the Sunland Derby was a sharp 1:48.46. It was a big win for the lightly raced Endorsement. He came into this race never before facing a top caliber colt, and responded by turning back the undefeated Conveyance, who had set moderate fractions. 3-year-olds can really blossom this time of year, and Endorsement looks like he is. If Endorsement moves forward off this effort, that should mean good things at Churchill Downs. He has a nice stalking style of running.
(5)(-) Line of David – Lion Heat – Emma’s Dilemma by Capote (Mar) Homebred — Line of David shows up on the scene after winning the Arkansas Derby (GI) in gate to wire fashion in his first career start on dirt. Line of David zipped right to the lead and set fractions of 22.65, 46.26, 1:10.75, 1:36.52 and stopped the clock in 1:49.37. He dug in and fended off the late surges of Super Saver and Dublin, who both made strong, sustained bids. Line of David’s win was a game win, and it also was a hard fought win. He will have three weeks to recover, and do it again. He will face other speed horses, and will have to go a bit further in the Kentucky Derby. He is improving at the right time, and he rattled off quick fractions early, and held on late to chalk up the Grade I win. He will face a tall task in the Kentucky Derby, but he ran a big one in the Arkansas Derby. The question is, will he digress or move forward?
(6)(-) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Mar) Homebred — Super Saver making just his 2nd start of 2010, ran a strong race in the Arkansas Derby (GI). He sat off the pace and rallied in the stretch, just missing getting to the wire before Line of David. He did drift a bit late, but he ran a solid race. He also showed the important ability to sit off the pace. In his previous races, Super Saver ran right on or near the lead. The pros for Super Saver is he will be making his third start off the layoff in the Kentucky Derby, and he sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip in the Kentucky Jockey Club (GII) last November. The negatives possibly can be, how much did the Arkansas Derby (GII) take out of him? Breeding indicates that going a mile and a quarter should be no issue, but the jury is still out. It will be a plus if can show the ability to rate again in the Kentucky Derby.
(7)(-) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (Apr) $525,000 — Dublin returns to the Kentucky Derby 12 after a game 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GI) to Line of David. Dublin made a prolonged rally in the middle of the track, but was unable to go by Super Saver and Line of David. He might not have gotten the win, but the race should set him up nicely for the Kentucky Derby, where he will be making his third start of 2010, and his third start into his current form cycle, which means who could very well move forward off this race. D. Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about having a horse ready to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby. The question that still remains is, if he wants to go a mile and a quarter. If the pace scenario sets up the right way, and with his running style, he could make his presence felt in the late stages at Churchill Downs. Dublin might have the best chance to move forward off the Arkansas Derby of the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby. If you are going to bet the Kentucky Derby, it might not be a bad idea to use Dublin.
(8)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 – Mission Impazible the Louisiana Derby (GII) winner was making his 3rd start off a layoff, and going a mile and an eighth for the first time. He ran an even 4th in the Southwest Stakes (GIII) in his race prior to the Louisiana Derby (GII). The win assures Mission Impaziple a spot in the starting gate in this years Kentucky Derby. Mission Impaziple is one of the harder horses to get a gauge on. His running style should benefit him in the Kentucky Derby. He will face a stiff test, and will have to go the mile and a quarter. Interesting Kentucky Derby prospect.
(9)(10) American Lion – Tiznow – Storm Tide by Storm Cat (Feb) Homebred – The parade of WinStar Farm horses that will run in these years Kentucky Derby continue to grow. American Lion was in a prolonged battle with the stubborn New York Bred Yawanna Twist throughout much of the race, until late, when American Lion was able to turn him back. American Lion led every step of the way, setting fractions of 24.89, 49.32, 1:13.22, 1:38.24 and stopped the clock in 1:51.31 for the one and one eighth mile race. He picked it up nicely when asked for his best late in the race. American Lion ran a distant 4th to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (GII) in March. WinStar has another bullet ready for the Kentucky Derby in the likes of American Lion. American Lion is a front-runner, and should be right up there in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby with the other speedy colts. Staying on all the way will be a tal task.
(10)(11) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – Conveyance got his first taste of defeat in finishing 2nd in the Sunland Derby (GIII) to newcomer Endorsement. Conveyance went right to the lead as expected and set moderate fractions of 23.71, 48.04, 1:11.91 and 1:35.88, but was unable to hold of the charge of Endorsement—who was making his graded stakes debut and stalked him relentlessly. The final time for the Sunland Derby (GIII) was 1:48.46. Conveyance had control of the race, but was unable to move away from Endorsement late. Conveyance is another one in this year’s Kentucky Derby that likes to roll anlong on the front end, and he will see plenty of others who run the same way. Conveyance has only lost once in his career. Should enter the Derby fit for bob Baffert, who can get one ready on Derby day. Staying the distance is the biggest concern, along with a possible hot pace sceanrio.
(11)(12) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 – Ice Box snagged his second career win at a mile and one eighth in the Florida Derby (GI). Ice Box was the last of 11 horses through much of the first half of the race, behind fast fractions set by Rule and Pulsion. Ice Box was able to swing out and make a bid turning for home and out lasted Pleasant Price by a nose in a long prolonged drive for the win. Ice Box completed the mile and an eighth race in a respectable 1:49.19—coming home in 13.02 seconds. He has experience in running route races. He has run at a mile and an eighth three times. He should be far off the pace at Churchill, and make a long bid late. A fast pace should help him. Is he fast enough is the question?
(12)(12) Rule – Roman Ruler – Rockcide by Personal Flag (Jan) Another WinStar horse set for the Kentucky Derby. Rule set a fast pace with Pulsion in the Florida Derby (GI)—turned for home with the lead, but was unable to fend off the late charge of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince after zipping through quick splits. Rule will enter the Kentucky Derby off a 6-week layoff. The one thing we know is he will be a fresh horse. How he runs off the layoff is a bit of an unknown. He has always shown the ability to run right up on, or near the lead, and in this year’s Kentucky Derby that could be a very crowded place to be. There should be plenty of other speed to deal with. If he can show the ability to rate, that could help his cause, but there is nothing to indicate he can, and the derby is not really the time to experiment. The distance will be his other issue.
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The Lexington Stakes, The Derby Trial and The Withers are the three remaming races left that could have an impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby. One horse to mention is the speed ball Eightyfiveinafifty, who still clings to Kentucky Derby hopes. If he makes it in, he will make a fast pace even more insane. Hold on and get ready if he makes it. He will run in either The Derby Trial or the Withers.
