Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 4/27/10
Devil May Care Added On 4/27— Debuts At #8
(1)(1) Sidney’s Candy – Candy Ride – Fair Exchange by Storm Cat (Jan) Homebred — Sidney’s Candy will close out the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12 of 2010 on top. Sidney’s Candy has put together two fast works in preparation for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The absence Eskendereya has enhanced Sidney’s Candy’s chances of snagging top honors this Saturday, along with every other horse in the Kentucky Derby. He is a fast horse that has a high cruising speed. He has won all three of his Kentucky Derby prep races nicely, finishing up strongly each time. He should be able to relax off a pace that is expected to be a quick one. Sidney’s Candy has plenty of talent to go along with his speed. A mile and a quarter is well with in his grasp. A dry fast track is preferred.
(2)(3) Lookin at Lucky – Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me (May) Purchase Price $475,000 — Lookin at Lucky has been doing everything nicely. The 2-year-old champ will come into the Kentucky Derby sitting on a big race. Lookin at Lucky will be the probable post-time favorite. He has a solid foundation and is battle tested. Bob Baffert knows how to get one ready for the Kentucky Derby. Horse continues to mature and will sit off the pace and make his usual late rally. Connections have been here before and have won it before. He put in another nice work this morning. He has solid credentials. The Kentucky Derby will be his third start of the year.
**(3)(4) Endorsement – Distorted Humor – Charmed Gift by A.P. Indy (Feb) $450,000 — Endoresment was the upset winner of the Sunland Derby (GIII) back in March. Endorsement ran down the speedy and undefeated Conveyance in an impressive effort. Endorsement has been working out at Keeneland in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Endorsement is one of three WinStar horses in the race. He has a running style that should suit him well in this year’s Kentucky Derby. A solid pace should be on tap. The two other WinStar horse’s Super Saver and American Lion have running styles that put them on or near the lead. Super Saver however can rate. Endorsement is well bred for a mile and a quarter. **(Out Of Kentucky Derby With Injury)**
(4)(11) Ice Box – Pulpit – Preach by Spice Island (Mar) $125,000 — The come from last to first winner of the Florida Derby (GI) will be coming in off the layoff for Hall of Fame Trainer Nick Zito in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Ice Box has been burning it up in the mornings at Churchill Downs and promises to be far back in the early stages of the Kentucky Derby. Nick Zito must be respected, as this guy knows how to prepare a horse for the big one. He will try to duplicate that late rally he displayed in the Florida Derby (GI). He will be passing horses in the stretch late in the Kentucky Derby. Is he fast enough to pass all of them is the question? Zito is happy with him.
(5)(6) Super Saver – Maria’s Mon – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Mar) Homebred — Todd Pletcher may have lost his top gun in Eskendereya, but his new top gun is Super Saver in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Super Saver is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (GII) to Line of David. That race served as a solid prep race for him. He will be making his 3rd start in his is current form cycle and has been working well in the mornings. He also sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip. Another move forward is expected on Saturday. He is well bred to get mile a quarter. Todd Pletchers best chance now to win the Kentucky Derby is with Super Saver.
(6)(7) Dublin – Afleet Alex – Classy Mirage by Storm Bird (Apr) $525,000 — D. Wayne Lukas is back and with a horse that has a shot. Dublin has gone through all of the Kentucky Derby preps and will target the Kentucky Derby coming in off fast workouts. Dublin closed well in the Arkansas Derby (GII) but could not get to Line of David. The come home time in the Arkansas Derby (GII) was not great, but that race served as a solid final prep for Dublin. Dublin will enter the Kentucky Derby fit and with a solid foundation under him.
(7)(10) Conveyance – Indian Charlie- Empty The Hill by Holy Bull (Feb) Purchase Price $240,000 – The speedster Conveyance promises to go right to the lead and take this group as far as he can go. Conveyance is the speed of the speed as far as this year’s Kentucky Derby goes. He should have some company up front, but has the speed to spurt out to a clear lead possibly. His biggest question will be his ability to go a mile and a quarter under these circumstances—it does not look like he will have an easy lead. He has been working fast in the mornings and anyway you view this horse, he has speed and that is a huge asset. He could possibly turn for home with the lead. Distance limitations will be his biggest obstacle.
(8)(-) Devil May Care – Malibu Moon – Kellis Ransom by Red Ransom (May) $110,000 — The filly Devil May Care shows up on the scene at the last second. Devil May Care won the Frizette (GI) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and won the Bonnie Miss (GII) at Gulfstream Park back in March as a 3-year-old in a sharp effort. She has a nice stalking style of running that should have her in good striking position in the Kentucky Derby. She is also a May foal and will not actually turn three until almost a week after the Kentucky Derby. Devil May Care is still a developing thoroughbred and that is a good thing this time of year. She drilled a fast 5 furlongs on April 24. Distance should be no issue.
(9)(-) Awesome Act – Awesome Again – Houdini’s Money by Mr. Prospector (Apr) Homebred — Awesome Act is back on the final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby 12. Awesome Act ran a well-beaten 3rd in the Wood Memorial (GI) after a shaky start and losing a shoe. He approached the top of the stretch ready to uncork his big late rally, but it fell flat. A slow pace also hurt his chances that day. He should get a much better set up in the Kentucky Derby— that will aid his chances. There will be many horses going backwards in the stretch at Churchill Downs. He should not be one of those. The biggest question is if he is fast enough.
(10)(-) Noble’s Promise – Cuvee – The Devil’s Trick by Clever Trick (Apr) Purchase Price $10,000 —Noble’s Promise had a fast 5 furlong breeze on April 20. He worked again on Aril 26. On that note—Noble’s Promise returns to the top 12 this week. Noble’s Promise has kept solid company all year with the likes of Lookin at Lucky—and nearly missed beating him a couple of times. He is this year’s Kentucky Derby bargain, only costing $10,000. Scoped with mucous after the Arkansas Derby (GII) where he did not run his best race. He did not get out of the gate well and was never a factor that day. He also got cut up during the race. He has every right to improve off his Arkansas Derby (GII) effort. He has class.
(11)(9) Mission Impaziple – Unbridled’s Song – La Paz by Hold Your Peace (Mar) $200,000 — Mission Impaziple was the upset winner of this year’s Louisiana Derby (GII). He had his first work over the Churchill Downs strip in the slop on April 24. The Kentucky Derby will be his 6th career lifetime start. He is still a lightly raced horse who still has room for further development. He is still a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect. He will need to move forward off his Louisiana Derby (GII) win.
(12)(-) Stately Victor – Ghostzapper – Collect The Cash by Dynaformer (May) $110,000 — Stately Victor debuts as the #11 horse on the final Derby 12. Stately Victor was born on May 1, 2007—so it could be a very happy birthday if he can win the roses. Stately Victor has done his best running on non-dirt tracks. He was a huge upset winner in this year’s Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland. Stately Victor should move up on an off track. He is a son of Ghostzapper and his bottom family indicates a mile and a quarter is well with in his range. How he will handle a fast dirt track is a bit of a concern. Stately Victor should go off at pretty big odds and looks to be a horse that will do his best running in the later stages the race.
(12)(-) Paddy O’Prado - El Prado - Fun House by Prized (Feb) $105,000 — Paddy O’Prado debuts in the #12 spot here. He ran 2nd to Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes (GI). Paddy O’Prado is another horse that has run his best races on non-dirt surfaces. And his best races have come on turf. Paddy O’Prado should conserve early and should be another who will launch a late rally. All indications are his chances should imrove on an off track. He will be one of the bigger priced horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Paddy O’Prado worked a strong 5 furlongs on April 24 in the slop at Churchill Downs.
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Off Derby 12
Eskendereya, Rule, Line of David and American Lion
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Later in the week ThoroughbredZone will have a complete Kentucky Derby Pick & Preview. ThoroughbredZone will take a quick glimpse at all of the runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby and give some pro’s and con’s of each and see who is worthy to use on tickets & who is not. Stick Around!
