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2010 Kentucky Derby 136 Chart *Click*
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby Pick and Preview
4/30/10 — Updated May 1, 15:23
It’s Kentucky Derby 136. And boy this one could be a real puzzler at post time. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to make matters even more complicated. On paper this field looks even-especially from a speed figure stand point. Trying to determine who will run well on an off-track might be guess work for those horses trying it for the first time. These are the horses that have won on an off-track. Super Saver, Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine and Backtalk-twice. Stately Victor and Mission Impaziple have run 2nd on an off-track. Noble’s Promise has a huge Tomlinson Speed figure of 463.
ThoroughbredZone’s pick to win Kentucky Derby 136 is Sidney’s Candy. Sidney’s Candy was an impressive winner in the San Vicente. He rattled off fast fractions and kept it going all the way to the wire and past it. He showed the ability to go fast early and keep it going until the end. He has galloped out strongly in all three of his prep races this year. The biggest key for Sidney’s Candy will be if he can rate. He has a nice relaxing running style and has never looked pressured or too much on the bit in the early stages of any of his prep races. I think he does have the ability to rate. In the Santa Anita Derby he showed another gear in the stretch and exploded to draw off and win by 4 1/2 lengths. It was an impressive turn of foot. Sidney’s Candy come home times have been solid, and that makes him a prime contender if he can duplicate those efforts. He has shown the ability to run fast through all stages of the race. He also has another slight advantage-he is a January foal, which gives him a slight edge in the maturation department over others. The two biggest hurdles in his way will be post position #20, and an off-track. He has drilled well on an off-track, but still he has never raced on one. If he handles the off going, there is no reason to think he can’t overcome his poor post. Some reports say his last work was average, and an old quarter crack could be bothering him. At this point we will stick with him. I was able to lock in a $20 win bet in Pool 3 on him at 22/1…
Here is the rest of the field in post position order with comments
1) Lookin at Lucky — He is Unlucky. The probable post time favorite will break from post position 1-one of the poorest spots to break from in the Kentucky Derby. Garrett Gomez will have to decide early on what he wants to do-gun him out or take back. Lookin at Lucky has a solid foundation and has been working well. He will come into the Kentucky Derby making his third start off his current form cycle. He is battle tested and already proved he can handle dirt. If he can overcome his poor post position, he should be there late. He still could be sitting on his best race yet. He will be short odds and breaking from the rail, is he worth a win bet? Not sure. He is still dangerous. Zactas /Tris (Ran 6h) Horrible Trip
2) Ice Box — The Florida Derby winner came from way out of it that day to win. Ice Box should be relatively far off the pace and make one big sustained rally late. Before the Florida Derby he had shown the ability to stalk. He came home fast in the Florida Derby, and a duplication of that effort makes him a player in this Kentucky Derby. The faster they go up front, the better his chances are. He has been working well in the slop. He should be coming late. He should be fine with distance. Nick Zito feels good about it. Jose Lezcano is a strong finisher. Zactas /Tris (Ran 2nd)
3) Noble’s Promise — Noble’s Promise ran right behind Lookin at Lucky on three separate occasions. If you like Lookin at Lucky, you should like Noble’s Promise, who will a much bigger price. He has a huge Tomlinson Wet figure of 463—however he will be making his first start on an off-track. He has a nice stalking style of running that should have him not too far off the pace. He did not get the best post position. He will have to avoid possible traffic issues. Noble’s Promise has been able to recover quickly from his rocky Arkansas Derby trip. He looms a threat if he fires. Another possible obstacle could be his ability to get a mile and a quarter. Zactas /Tris (Ran 5th) Led at the Top
4) Super Saver — Super Saver is one of many horses that will be coming into the Kentucky Derby making his 3rd start in his current form cycle. He finished 2nd to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby. He drifted a bit in the late stages of the Arkansas Derby, but a move forward is expected in the Kentucky Derby. Super Saver was a run-a-away winner at Churchill Downs on a fast track and he was a run-a-away winner on a sloppy track at Belmont Park. He has one published work out since the Arkansas Derby. Expect him to be a few lengths off the pace early. And we know where Calvin likes to go. WinStars best chance for the roses. Super Saver has superb breeding for this as well. He could very well be Todd Pletchers best chance to win the roses, along with Devil May Care. Zactas / Tris-saver win bet (Winner)
5) Line of David — The front running winner of the Arkansas Derby will try to do it again, but there should be plenty of speed to keep him company. Line of David set fast fractions in the Arkansas Derby, but slowed down coming home. He was able to hold off Super Saver and Dublin. He will have to go even further in the Kentucky Derby. He faces a tough task, but a pace factor for sure. Did the Arkansas Derby take too much out of him?
6) Stately Victor — Stately Victor has raced three times at a mile and eighth and won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He should be fine in getting a distance, his ability to run on a dirt track is in question, but all indications are we are looking at a sloppy track. He closed strongly in the Blue Grass and should be off the pace again. He had a sharp 5 furlong workout on April 23. He looks to be coming into his own at the right time. He will offer big odds. Zactas /Tris (Ran 8th)
7) American Lion — American Lion is the other WinStar entry in the race. American Lion won the Illinois Derby in his first try on dirt, after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces. He is another horse that has a speed figure that fits right in with the top contenders in the race. If he can rate instead of going right up on the lead, it could very well benefit him. At this point it looks like he could be a victim of a fast pace.
8 ) Dean’s Kitten — Dean’s Kitten has the most experience in this Kentucky Derby field, having been in 11 races. He has one career start on a dirt track and it was on an off-track. He did not run well there. Dean’s Kitten has been working well in the mornings. Dean’s Kitten has done almost all his running on turf. He should be well off the pace and mount a bid. Is he fast enough to make up the ground to be a threat. Others rate higher at this point. He has been working well, and is bred to get a distance, an off track makes him interesting. Should go off a huge price. Zactas /Tris (Ran 14th)
9) Make Music for Me — Make Music for Me will be making his first career start on a dirt/off surface in the Kentucky Derby. During this spring of Kentucky Derby preps, horses trying dirt for the first time have run very well. Line of David, American Lion, Lookin at Lucky and Noble’s Promise showed the could handle the dirt. Make Music for Me also ran right behind Lookin at Lucky in Delmar Futurity and the Best Pal Stakes in California last year. He could be the biggest price on the board when the gates open. He also drilled a very sharp 4 furlong work on April 19 at Keeneland. Carson City on the bottom gives him nice off track breeding, but not of much help in the distance department. Some will toss, I will use. He gets the benefit of the doubt Zactas /Tris -Saver Win Play (Ran 4th)
10) Paddy O’Prado — Paddy O’Prado will make his second start on a dirt track, and first start on an off track. He has been working well in the slop. Paddy O’Prado has a versatile style of running. He could either stalk or drop further back. He has raced at a mile and an eighth three times which is a plus. In his first career start he raced over sloppy track at Churchill Downs-ran poorly. Considering it was his first start, that race will be tossed. Zipped a fast 5 furlong work in 58 on April 23. He should be good in the distance department. He will be another at a huge price big price. Zactas /Tris (Ran 3rd)
11) Devil May Care — The filly Devil May Care will enter the Kentucky Derby off a sharp win in the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream Park. She stopped the clock in just a nip over 1:49-faster then Eskendereya and Ice Box-however take into consideration of how the track was playing-either way she ran a super race. She was also a run-a-awy winner over a sloppy track at Saratoga-other plus, and has a nice stalking style of running that should have her not too far off the pace. She is one of three horses in the Derby to record a Beyer Speed figure of 100-the other two are Sidney’s Candy and Jackson Bend. Based on that, it makes her a candidate to possibly bag top honors. Connections passed the Kentucky Oaks for the this spot. She should be respected. Zactas /Tris -Saver Win (Ran 10th)
12) Conveyance — Speedy Conveyance will take it right to them out of the gate. Conveyance will try to get a clear lead, and could very well do it. He has been working fast and looks ready to fire. He could also get pressed by some of the other speed horses. It would be no shock if he turns for home with the lead. If he were able to relax on the lead, his chances would improve even more. He will go as far as he can go on the lead. He faces distance limitations. He has been working lights out. He is fast and does scare me. Tough to not use, but a mile and quarter under possible pressure looks tough.
13) Jackson Bend — Jackson Bend is coming off back-to-back 2nd place finishes to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. He is a very consistent horse. He earned a 100 beyer speed figure as a 2-year-old. Distance will be his biggest obstacle in the Kentucky Derby. Should be not to far off the pace. The possibility of him going to lead exists as well, aiding the chances of Ice Box. The final two furlongs look daunting. It looks like distance will be an issue.
14) Mission Impaziple — Upset winner of the Louisiana Derby has been working well in the slop. He will only be making his 6th lifetime start and faces his toughest task to date. He should go off at a square price. Ran a solid 2nd on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park. He is a bit of an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect. He is eligible to improve. Based on the fact he has run well on an off-track and will be big odds, finding a spot for him somewhere might a good idea. He is a bit of a guess in here for me. Zactas /Tris (Ran 9th)
15) Discreetly Mine — The speedy Discreetly Mine should be part of the early pace. He broke his maiden over a track rated good at Saratoga, crushing a field 11 others in which Super Saver was ran 2nd. He has raced on a sloppy track at Saratoga, where he bobbled out of the gate and finished a troubled 4th. He was unable to get the lead in the Louisiana Derby and had to settle for a 4th place finish. How far he can go in the Derby with expected pressure is a tough question answer. He zipped a fast 5 furlongs over a sloppy track in 1:00 on April 24.
16) Awesome Act — The late rallying son of Awesome Again will try to uncork that late kick in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby. He will need an honest pace. Breeding suggest he should be fine with an off track—has never been on one. He could find traffic problems weaving his way through the crowd of horses. A fast pace should will certainly aid his chances. He also lost a shoe in the Wood Memorial. He has room to improve off that race. Depending on how low his odd are however might determine whether he offers enough value. He is a closer-but will he get there? An in the money finish is not out of the question, but still have doubts if he is fast enough to win this race.
17) Dublin — The hard knocking Dublin comes into the Kentucky Derby after three straight Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. He had every chance to pass Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, but was unable to do so. The come home time was not great, but that race served as a solid prep for him. D.Wayne Lukas knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby. He should get a good stalking trip and a move forward off the Arkansas Derby is in the cards. Depending on how you feel about this horse, he could either be used or tossed, as his ability to get a mile and a quarter might be in question. One of his recent works were not great, and he might not be at his best on a sloppy track. D. Wayne Lukas is a Derby legend. (Never mentioned Dublin In Preview as a user-Ran 7th)
18) Backtalk — Backtalk is a proven commodity on an off-track. The son of Smarty Jones sports two wins over the Churchill Downs surface, and he also sports two wins on an off-track. He faces a stiff class test in the Kentucky Derby. He should go off at a huge price, possibly 50/1 or higher. He does come a little short in the speed figure department, however he will get the benefit of the doubt based on the first sentence. I have to admit I am a bit biased-Smarty Jones is my favorite. He will go off at whopper odds.
19) Homeboykris — Dick Dutrow is back, but no Big Brown this time. Homeboykris will be one of the biggest prices on the board when the gates open. He comes in off a long layoff—a solid angle for Dick Dutrow. He should get a stalking trip. Distance is his biggest obstacle. If were able to pull this off, it would be one of thee biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history. He is working out very well for this and Dutrow and Dominguez make for a tough team. He might be out there on the pace for awhile. It just looks too tough at this point.
20) Sidney’s Candy — (Top Pick) The speedy Sidney’s Candy will break from post 20. He will have to come over from post position 20 and try to get a good position early. He has the speed to do it. It looks like no matter what he will lose some ground going into the first turn. How wide is the question? He went through his prep season in perfect order winning all three of his prep races, and capped it with a run-a-way win in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can show the ability to rate, it would benefit him immensely, and he seems to be a horse that can, there is no reason not to think he can’t rate. Another explosive late kick in the stretch will make it tough for anyone to run him down. He galloped out strongly in each one of his prep races this spring. He should have no problem staying on for a mile and a quarter. An off track could be his biggest obstacle, and is a mild concern. He looks to be the most talented horse of this group. He closed at 22/1 in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future bet. He will be closer to 5/1 tomorrow. (Top Choice) (Ran 17th-Stopped)
Handicapping Tid Bits
Thee Kentucky Derby Legends Trainers are back in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Bullet Bob Baffert, Nick Zito-both with two horses each and 5 Kentucky Derby Trophies between them, and D. Wayne Lukas is back with Dublin-Looking for his 5th trip to the Winner’s Circle in The Kentucky Derby. Between the three-9 Kentucky Derby Winners. Todd Pletcher will look to get his first Kentucky Derby winner.
***Todd Pletcher did it-Finally gets his 1st Kentucky Derby winner in Super Saver!!***
How to Bet
How to bet the Kentucky Derby. There are several approaches one can take. If you like a horse, you could either bet that horse to win, or depending on how low the odds may be on a horse you like, you could key them in exactas and trifectas, or do both-Churchill Downs will offer a 50 cent trifecta. The 50 cent trifecta will give one an opportunity to use more horses for half the price. Another economical bet is a 5 horse exacta box for a dollar-which will cost you a total of $20 for the wager and you will have 5 horses. You can also bet more than one horse to win, that is if the odds are worth it. You can also take a crack at a long shot with a saver bet. And if he or she scores, you will have something on them. The field does looks even from a speed figure perspective, and adding an off-track could make this anyone’s race possibly if certain scenarios develop.
No matter how much one caps a race, it does not mean one will cash a ticket. One of the keys on Kentucky Derby day is to also let go and have a little fun with it. This is not something I preach, but taking a shot with some numbers is not a bad idea on Derby day. Everyone loves the Kentucky Derby and it’s great sporting event. Make your main bets, and also make some fun bets-birthdays, trainer combos, horses names and so on. You just never know what can happen-especially on a track that could turn out to be a swamp. A simple $1 exacta box is $2 and they have 50 cent trifectas. No matter what your bank roll may be, relax, make some wagers, and most importantly enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports. No matter what happens, it promises to be a thriller. Good luck to all!
