By Stephen Alicknovic
*I wrote this article last year, and thought it would be a good idea to put it up again with the Breeders’ Cup right around the corner. I have made a few changes and made some additions.
Betting the Breeders’ Cup can be a challenging and an exciting task for veteran handicappers and newbie’s a like. Deciding on who you will bet is another issue. I will go over that in my (Breeders’ Cup Close Up and Preview) but how you bet is a very important factor. First, I would focus on the races you feel you have the best opinion on, and work around them. Decide in advance exactly how big your bankroll will be for the entire two days. How much money will you have to bet these races? And look at what races you feel you have the best opinion on. This is a good starting point.
There is no rule saying you have to bet every race, but on days such as the Breeders’ Cup, you still might want to take chances on the races that you might not have the best grip on. And there will probably be some races that will be head benders. If a race does come up that has you some what perplexed, do not be overwhelmingly tentative, spread with horses that you think could have a chance to get it done, and a price horse that could make your day. Two years ago I mentioned Desert Code as a horse who had a good chance to win at a price and can be used on pick tickets. He did win and paid a juicy $75. That is the type of a horse you are looking for. The good thing about the Breeders’ Cup is you only need to be right once. And the one time could payoff with a huge score.
You can also play more than one horse to win in The Breeders’ Cup. This way of betting is good for covering long shots. It increases your chance to cash, and get that price horse you think has a shot. Depending on the odds, you could possibly bet up to 4 or 5 horses to win. Some might say this does not make sense, but if you are the one who nails down a 45/1 shot, you make a profit. The key is finding those races where that possibility exists. If you happen to have a horse you like a lot, in the race, either before or after and seems a little tough to figure out, you can always hit the all-button. The all-button assures you of cashing a ticket if your horse wins. Generally, I do not use the all-button too often. This method is called wheeling. However the beauty of the all-button is, if that big priced horse rolls home, you will have it. In these large competitive fields, it can be a good option. The flip side is, if a short priced horse scores, you probably won’t see a big return on your bet. I have wheeled horses in past Breeders’ Cups, and I can tell you, hitting the all-button has paid off nicely. Last year I wheeled one race in Breeders’ Cup, the sprint in which I thought was a wide open affair. It paid off with a $52.60 winner in Dancing In Silks. You can either use the all-button with exactas, with your key horse on top, or in a daily double, or a Pick 3. I do not recommend wheeling two races in a Pick 3 however. That can be very expensive, and simply not smart. Or you can just relax and wait until your race or races come up. Patience is a key element all handicappers should possess.
Deciding in advance exactly what your handicapping strategy will be will help you formulate bets in advance. It will give you an idea of how much the bets you would like to make will cost. Once you have an early idea of what races you like, and how you might go about betting them, you will have already given yourself an advantage. Variables that can affect a race will have to be taken into consideration on the day of races, weather conditions, scratches, track bias and so on, but having a solid idea before hand of what you would like to do helps you in making bets. Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s are a great way to go on Breeders’ Cup day. And this year there will be 50 cent Pick 3′s and Pick 4′s. A great new addition to this year’s Breeders’ Cup betting menu. They offer value, and a chance to get a real nice score if you nail it down. You could also play The Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 if you have a nice enough size bankroll, or a group of friends who would like to do it. A group of people who contribute to a Pick 6 ticket is called a syndicate. So you can have your own Breeders’ Cup syndicate with your friends or betting partners and have chance for the big jackpot. This is not to say a small Pick 6 ticket on your own can’t win. Graham Stone won $2.7 million in the 2003 Breeders’ Cup on a Pick 6 ticket that cost only $8!
Finally, another thing you could do, is divide your bankroll and allot a certain amount of money to each particular type of bet you will be intending to make. Pick bets, win bets, exactas, trifectas, superfectas and what ever else you like to do.
If you are on a limited betting budget and can’t really afford to bet too much money, a 10-cent superfecta can be a good way to go. Large, quality fields, with many betting combinations can make a 10-cent superfecta a real good investment. The 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic 10-cent superfecta paid over $1,000! And new bets have been added to the betting menu this year. 50 cent Pick 3′s and Pick 4′s will be offered. I certainly intend to get in on that this year.
1) Decide How Much Your Bankroll Will Be
2) What Races do You like The Best
3) Decide How You Might Bet These Races
(Below there is a link to Breeder’s Cup Average Pick 3 and Pick 4 payouts)
These are just a few simple things you can do to get ready for playing the Breeders’ Cup. Things change, bets change. No one is ever locked in to making certain bets. If something pops up you like, or something intrigues you, go for it. Breeders’ Cup day is truly one of the very best days of the year to bet the races. Quality Thoroughbreds, large fields and huge pools. There are 14 races, you will not cash every ticket, but you only have to cash once to get a big score. And most of all, enjoy yourself and the races. With a little bit of preparation, planning and patience, Breeders’ Cup 2010 could be one you will not soon forget.
Breeder’s Cup Wagering Guide: Picks 3′s and Pick 4′s
