It’s only has been one week, but there has already been a dramatic change in this year’s Kentucky Derby 12. Soldat takes over the #1 spot—jumping all the way up from the ‘Knocking On The Door’ list to the top of the list. This is the biggest jump up ever in ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby list, passing up Curlin’s jump from #12 to #2 in 2007 after he won the Arkansas Derby. Uncle Mo dips to #2. Uncle Mo has yet to race as a 3-year-old. Uncle Mo is pointing to the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park on March 12 for his 3-year-old debut. He could certainly regain that top in the not too distant future. Others debuting on this week’s list are Gourmet Dinner & Flashpoint. Slipping off for now is Sweet Ducky & Anthony’s Cross. Arch Traveler won his first race going a distance over Nacho Business. ThoroughbredZone talked about Arch Traveler in a First Time Starter Alert post back in December.
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 For The Week Of February 28,2026
(1)(-) Soldat - War Front - Le Relais by Coranado’s Quest (Apr) $180,000 – It’s only been one week, but there is a new #1 in Soldat. Soldat backed up his explosive allowance win in the slop by winning the Fountain of Youth GII gate to wire fashion over Gourmet Dinner and To Honor and Serve. Soldat raced through fractions of 24.34, 47.99, 1:12.43, 1:37.19, and stopped the clock in 1:50.23 for the one mile and one eighth distance over fast track. El Grayling pressed him on the outside before throwing in the towel coming into the bend. Gourmet Dinner came on for 2nd, but couldn’t make up the ground needed to beat a strong running Soldat. Soldat has been impressive in his first two starts as a 3-year-old. He has shown he has an extra gear when needed. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation, and the mile and a quarter looks to be well with in his range. Soldat has already proven he is versatile runner who has the ability to rate. He is in the very capable hands of Kiaran McLaughlin who should have him ready for a big effort in The Kentucky Derby.
(2)(1) Uncle Mo - Indian Charlie - Playa Maya by Arch (Mar) $160,000 – It’s only been one week, but Uncle Mo has been knocked off from the #1 spot. Uncle Mo has yet to race in 2011. Uncle Mo has won all three of his career starts by a combined 23 lengths. He capped his championship 2-year-old campaign off with a brilliant win at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile GI last November. Uncle Mo sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip already which is a positive. Uncle Mo will try to follow the same footsteps as Street Sense in 2007 who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, and went on to win The Kentucky Derby. He earned a big speed figure in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If Uncle Mo moves forward off his 2-year-old campaign, he will remain the horse to beat. Uncle Mo is being pointed to the Timely Writer on March 12 at Gulfstream Park for his 3-year-old debut.
(3)(2) To Honor and Serve - Bernardini – Pilfer by Deputy Minister (Mar) $250,000 – To Honor and Serve made his first start of the year in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth, running behind Soldat and Gourmet Dinner. Considering it was his first start of the year, he ran a good race. The race served as a nice conditioner for him. The ultimate goal of course is the Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man is a horse To Honor and Serve has defeated twice, came back to win the Risen Star GII. Live Oak Plantation’s To Honor and Serve is well bred to get the distance. Bill Mott for the 2nd consecutive year has a solid horse pointing towards the spring classics.
(4)(4) Dialed In – Mineshaft – Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat (Feb) $475,000 – The fast closing son of Mineshaft starts off in the #4 spot. Nick Zito is once again on the Kentucky Derby trail with another talented 3-year-old colt. Dialed In came on the scene last year as a 2-year-old, winning his debut at Churchill Downs with a strong, powerful late run after a slow start. In his 3-year-old debut this year, he did it again. He won the Holy Bull GIII last month after a slow start, making a strong rally to go by Sweet Ducky. He stopped the clock in a sharp 1:35.19 for the mile. Dialed In is a lightly raced colt who has plenty room for further development. He should relish a mile and a quarter.
(5)(3) Brethren – Distorted Humor – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Apr) Home Bred – WinStar will once again come to this year’s Triple Crown Series as a big player. Brethren is coming off an easy win in the Sam Davis GIII at Tampa Bay Downs in his first start of 2011. He stopped the clock in 1:45.07 for the mile and a sixteenth. It was a perfect way to start his 3-year-old campaign. Brethren, like his half brother Super Saversported a win over the Churchill Downs strip before the Kentucky Derby, and that is as a positive.
(6)(-) Gourmet Dinner - Trippi - Potluck Dinner by Pentelicus (Mar) $40,000 Gourmet Dinner debuts in the #6 spot after finishing 2nd to Soldat in the Fountain of Youth GII Saturday. The Fountain of Youth GII was his 2nd start as a 3-year-old. He finished 3rd to Dial In in the Holy Bull GIII. Gourmet Dinner has been developing nicely as a 3-year-old. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation. Over the years the Delta Jackpot winner has not gone on to do too much on the Triple Crown Trail. Gourmet Dinner has already shown he could very well be one the better horses to ever win that race. He has finished behind some of the top rated 3-year-olds in the country.
(7)(-) Flashpoint – Pomeroy – Two Punch Lil by Two Punch (Feb) $100,000 – Flashpoint will debut in the #7 spot this week. Flashpoint followed up his impressive maiden win by smashing a good group in the Hutcheson Stakes GII on Saturday. Flashpoint pressed the hot favorite Travelin Man right out of the gate, and put him away turning for home, leaving him in the dust. Flashpoint stopped the clock in fast 1:22.03 for the 7 furlongs. Flashpoint is now undefeated in two starts. Based on speed, and talent, he is certainly one of the top 3-year-olds in the land. How far he can carry that speed remains to be seen. If they opt to run in the Florida Derby GI, they will probably see Soldat. They might want to look for another race to avoid that showdown before the Kentucky Derby. If going long does not workout, he should do very well in the sprint ranks this year. This is an exciting horse.
(8)(5) Mucho Macho Man – Macho Uno – Ponche de Leona by Ponche (Jun) – Mucho Macho Man is coming in off a game win in The Risen Star GII. He battled with Santiva to the wire for the win. Mucho Macho Man stopped the clock in 1:43.98 for the mile and a sixteenth. Mucho Macho Man has been in solid company in his most recent starts before the Risen Star GII—finishing 2nd twice to the top rated To Honor and Serve, and finishing 4th behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull GIII. Mucho Macho Man is one of the more experienced horses on the Triple Crown Trail with 7 races under his belt already. Mucho Macho Man is also the baby of the bunch. He is a mid June foal. Mucho Macho Man is still a young 3-year-old which means further progression in the maturation department is expected.
(9)(6) The Factor – War Front – Greyciousness by Miswaki (Mar) – Another year, another talented Bob Baffert colt is on the Kentucky Derby Trail. The Factor followed up his impressive maiden breaking win with a nice front running win in The San Vicente GII. The Factor is a lightly raced horse with only three career starts, but Bob Baffert has a way with 3-year-olds. He will do his best to keep him on target. The biggest question at this point with The Factor is how far he can carry that speed as the distances get longer? Bob Baffert will do all he can to make sure he goes into the Kentucky Derby ready to fire his best shot.
(10)(8) Sway Away – Afleet Alex – Seattle Shimmer by Seattle Slew (Apr) $170,000 – Ran a strong closing 2nd to The Factor in the San Vicente GII to The Factor, and galloped out past him. The sharp looking son of Afleet Alex should enjoy the races as they get longer. His dam sire is the legendary Seattle Slew. This lightly raced colt has yet to fully develop as a race horse, like many others on the Derby Trail.
(11)(7) Astrology – A.P. Indy – Quiet Eclipse by Quiet American (Mar) $285,000 Astrology ran 2nd to Santiva last November in the Kentucky Jockey Club GII at Churchill Downs. The Steve Asmussen trainee has yet to run as a 3-year-old. A race should be picked out for him soon enough. He is a horse who should benefit in the longer distance Kentucky Derby preps. Astrology has a nice 2-year-old foundation under him. Astrology has been working out at Santa Anita.
(12)(9) Archarcharch – Arch – Woodman’s Dancer by Woodman (Mar) $60,000 – Archarcharch was the upset winner of the Southwest Stakes GIII on Presidents’ Day at Oaklawn Park. Archarcharch sat off the pace, and took over the lead in the stretch. He stopped the clock in 1:38.23 for the mile. Archarcharch is bred to long, and should enjoy the races as the distances increase.
Knocking On The Door
Arch Traveler – Backed up maiden win with an allowance over Nacho Business Saturday. Sweet Ducky – Ran 2nd behind Dialed In In Holy Bull GIII. Anthony’s Cross – Robert B. Lewis GII winner. Santiva – Battled with Mucho Macho Man to finish 2nd in Risen Star GII. Bind – Explosive 1st out winner at the Fairgrounds on The Risen Star undercard. J P’s Gusto - Ran 2nd to Archarcharch in the Southwest GIII. Cal Nation – Romped in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream Park, Derby Trail is questionable however. Shackleford – A non factor in the Fountain of Youth GII. Toby’s Corner – Won the Whirlaway at Aqueduct. Comma to the Top – Had his 5 race win streak snapped in the El Camino Real GIII. Rocking Out – Long striding son of Include disappointed in last. Escort - Broke maiden in third try at Gulstream park. Stay Thirsty – Ran 2nd in The Hopeful GI last year. Silver Medallion – Winner of the El Camino Real GIII. Awesome Patriot - Beat Riveting Reason in an allowance. Crossbow- Injured-Off Derby Trail. Free Entry – Upset Rocking Out in Allowance. Travelin Man – Ran a distant 2nd to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson GII. Nacho Business – 2nd to Arch Traveler in an allowance Saturday. Riveting Reason – Ran 2nd to Anthony’s Cross in the Robert B. Lewis GII. Wilkinson – Lecomte GIII winner. King Congie - Has been running on grass, a switch back to dirt can’t be ruled out. Vengeful Wildcat – Has not raced in a while, but working steadily at Gulfstream Park. Indian Winter - Winner of the non graded San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita.
