A few minor tweeks this week. Dialed In moves up to the #3 spot. Stay Thirsty debuts in the #8 spot. Astrology drops off.
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 12 For The Week Of March 7,2026
(1)(1) Soldat – War Front – Le Relais by Coronado’s Quest (Apr) $180,000 – Soldat backed up his explosive allowance win in the slop by winning the Fountain of Youth GII gate to wire fashion over Gourmet Dinner and To Honor and Serve. Soldat raced through fractions of 24.34, 47.99, 1:12.43, 1:37.19, and stopped the clock in 1:50.23 for the one mile and one eighth distance over fast track. El Grayling pressed him on the outside before throwing in the towel coming into the bend. Gourmet Dinner came on for 2nd, but couldn’t make up the ground needed to beat a strong running Soldat. Soldat has been impressive in his first two starts as a 3-year-old. He has shown he has an extra gear. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation, and the mile and a quarter looks to be well within his range. Soldat has already proven he is versatile runner who has the ability to rate. He is in the very capable hands of Kiaran McLaughlin who should have him ready for a big effort in The Kentucky Derby.
(2)(2) Uncle Mo - Indian Charlie – Playa Maya by Arch (Mar) $160,000 – Uncle Mo is preparing for his 2011 debut. Uncle Mo has won all three of his career starts by a combined 23 lengths. He capped his championship 2-year-old campaign off with a brilliant win at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile GI last November. Uncle Mo sports a win over the Churchill Downs strip already which is a positive. Uncle Mo will try to follow the same footsteps as Street Sense in 2007 who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, and went on to win The Kentucky Derby. He earned a big speed figure in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If Uncle Mo moves forward off his 2-year-old campaign, he will remain the horse to beat. Uncle Mo is being pointed to the Timely Writer on March 12 at Gulfstream Park for his 3-year-old debut.
(3)(4) Dialed In – Mineshaft – Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat (Feb) $475,000 – Dialed In moves up one slot to #3 this week. Dialed In was finally able to get his prep race in for the Florida Derby GI on Sunday. He raced in a one mile and a one eighth allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. He did not win, but ran a good 2nd running behind moderately slow fractions throughout. The race served as a solid conditioner for the Florida Derby GI. Dialed In also got a good learning experience in the race. He was behind horses and had dirt kicked in face. He finished full of run, galloping out nicely. Even though he did not win, Zito is happy with his effort. The late running son of Mineshaft should continue to move forward.
(4)(3) To Honor and Serve - Bernardini – Pilfer by Deputy Minister (Mar) $250,000 – To Honor and Serve made his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth, running behind Soldat and Gourmet Dinner. Considering it was his first start of the year, he ran a good race. The race served as a nice conditioner for him. The ultimate goal of course is the Kentucky Derby. Mucho Macho Man is a horse To Honor and Serve has defeated twice, came back to win the Risen Star GII. Live Oak Plantation’s To Honor and Serve is well bred to get the distance. Bill Mott for the 2nd consecutive year has a solid horse pointing towards the spring classics.
(5)(5) Brethren – Distorted Humor – Supercharger by A.P. Indy (Apr) Home Bred – WinStar will once again come to this year’s Triple Crown Series as a big player. Brethren is coming off an easy win in the Sam Davis GIII at Tampa Bay Downs in his first start of 2011. He stopped the clock in 1:45.07 for the mile and a sixteenth. It was a perfect way to start his 3-year-old campaign. Brethren, like his half brother Super Saver sported a win over the Churchill Downs strip before the Kentucky Derby, and that is as a positive.
(6)(6) Gourmet Dinner – Trippi – Potluck Dinner by Pentelicus (Mar) $40,000 The Fountain of Youth GII was his 2nd start as a 3-year-old. He finished 3rd to Dial In in the Holy Bull GIII. Gourmet Dinner has been developing nicely as a 3-year-old. He has a solid 2-year-old foundation. Over the years the Delta Jackpot winner has not gone on to do too much on the Triple Crown Trail. Gourmet Dinner has already shown he could very well be one the better horses to ever win that race. He has finished behind some of the top rated 3-year-olds in the country.
(7)(7) Flashpoint – Pomeroy – Two Punch Lil by Two Punch (Feb) $100,000 – Flashpoint followed up his impressive maiden win by smashing a good group in the Hutcheson Stakes GII. Flashpoint pressed the hot favorite Travelin Man right out of the gate, and put him away turning for home, leaving him in the dust. Flashpoint stopped the clock in fast 1:22.03 for the 7 furlongs. Flashpoint is now undefeated in two starts. Based on speed, and talent, he is certainly one of the top 3-year-olds in the land. How far he can carry that speed remains to be seen. If they opt to run in the Florida Derby GI, they will probably see Soldat. They might want to look for another race to avoid that showdown before the Kentucky Derby. If going long does not workout, he should do very well in the sprint ranks this year. This is an exciting horse.
(8)(-) Stay Thirsty - Bernardini - Marozia by Storm Bird (Mar) $160,000 – Stay Thirsty debuts in the #8 spot after winning the Gotham GII at Aqueduct on Saturday. Stay Thirsty made his first start as a 3-year-old a winning one. He sat off moderate fractions set by The Fed Eased. He kicked in to take over in the stretch and draw clear for the 3 1/4 length win. Stay Thirsty rallied home swiftly. He stopped the clock in 1:44.78 for the one mile and one sixteenth distance. The Gotham GII was his first start since finishing 5th to his Stablemate Uncle Mo in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Churchill Downs. He will get one more start before the Kentucky Derby. He will either run in the Florida Derby GI or Arkansas Derby GII next. I think they might lean towards the Arkansas Derby GII. We will see.
(9)(8) Mucho Macho Man – Macho Uno – Ponche de Leona by Ponche (Jun) – Mucho Macho Man is coming in off a game win in The Risen Star GII. He battled with Santiva to the wire for the win. Mucho Macho Man stopped the clock in 1:43.98 for the mile and a sixteenth. Mucho Macho Man has been in solid company in his most recent starts before the Risen Star GII—finishing 2nd twice to the top rated To Honor and Serve and finishing 4th behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull GIII. Mucho Macho Man is one of the more experienced horses on the Triple Crown Trail with 7 races under his belt already. Mucho Macho Man is also the baby of the bunch. He is a mid June foal. Mucho Macho Man is still a young 3-year-old which means further progression in the maturation department is expected.
(10)(9) The Factor – War Front – Greyciousness by Miswaki (Mar) – Another year, another talented Bob Baffert colt is on the Kentucky Derby Trail. The Factor followed up his impressive maiden breaking win with a nice front running win in The San Vicente GII. The Factor is a lightly raced horse with only three career starts, but Bob Baffert has a way with 3-year-olds. He will do his best to keep him on target. The biggest question at this point with The Factor is how far he can carry that speed as the distances get longer? Bob Baffert will do all he can to make sure he goes into the Kentucky Derby ready to fire his best shot. The Factor will go in the Rebel GII at Oaklawn Park next.
(11)(10) Sway Away – Afleet Alex – Seattle Shimmer by Seattle Slew (Apr) $170,000 – Ran a strong closing 2nd to The Factor in the San Vicente GII to The Factor, and galloped out past him. The sharp looking son of Afleet Alex should enjoy the races as they get longer. His dam sire is the legendary Seattle Slew. This lightly raced colt has yet to fully develop as a race horse, like many others on the Derby Trail.
(12)(12) Archarcharch – Arch – Woodman’s Dancer by Woodman (Mar) $60,000 – Archarcharch was the upset winner of the Southwest Stakes GIII on Presidents’ Day at Oaklawn Park. Archarcharch sat off the pace, and took over the lead in the stretch. He stopped the clock in 1:38.23 for the mile. Archarcharch is bred to long, and should enjoy the races as the distances increase.
Knocking On The Door
Astrology - Yet to make his 3-year-old debut. Arch Traveler – Backed up maiden win with an allowance over Nacho Business. Sweet Ducky – Ran 2nd behind Dialed In In Holy Bull GIII. Anthony’s Cross – Robert B. Lewis GII winner. Santiva – Battled with Mucho Macho Man to finish 2nd in Risen Star GII. Bind – Explosive 1st out winner at the Fairgrounds on The Risen Star undercard. J P’s Gusto – Ran 2nd to Archarcharch in the Southwest GIII. Cal Nation – Romped in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream Park. Shackleford – A non factor in the Fountain of Youth GII. Comma to the Top – Had his 5 race win streak snapped in the El Camino Real GIII. Rocking Out – Long striding son of Include disappointed in last. Escort - Broke maiden in third try at Gulstream Park. Silver Medallion – Winner of the El Camino Real GIII. Awesome Patriot - Beat Riveting Reason in an allowance. Free Entry – Upset Rocking Out in Allowance. Travelin Man – Ran a distant 2nd to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson GII. Toby’s Corner – Finished behind Stay Thirsty in Gotham. Nacho Business – 2nd to Arch Traveler in an allowance Saturday. Riveting Reason – Ran 2nd to Anthony’s Cross in the Robert B. Lewis GII. Wilkinson – Lecomte GIII winner. King Congie - Has been running on grass, a switch back to dirt can’t be ruled out. Vengeful Wildcat – Ran 3rd in the Fred Capposella at Aqueduct. Indian Winter - Winner of the non graded San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita.
