ThoroughbredZone 2008 Final Kentucky Derby 12
1)(1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. Big Brown worked again this past Saturday April 19th at Palm Meadows. Everything went smooth and he did it easy. He is scheduled for one more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. I still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. So far the feet issues remains a non-issue. He will wear special shoes on his front feet. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. Big Brown might be the most talented horse of this crop. He is athletic and has a big stride. The Derby will be his 4th lifetime start. History is not on his side, but history is not a guarantee of future results He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. If he were able to win the Kentucky Derby, it would be a huge accomplishment considering his lack of racing experience.
2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.
3)(3) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.
4) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.
5)(5) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby.
6)(6) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There is also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. It’s still in the back of their heads. Granddad on the bottom is Seeking The Gold . He looks good in the distance department.
7)(7) Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.
(6)(6) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.
9)(9) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E)Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.
10)(11) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Smooth Air moves up to number 10 this week. Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If he can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.
(11)(-) Bob Black Jack – Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $4,500 (E) The speedball Bob Black Jack returns to the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. The $4,500 purchase turned out to be a real steal. He has of a world record and a track record over the new Santa Anita synthetic surface. Has yet to run on a dirt surface, but there is no doubt that he is a fast horse out of the gate. Bob Black Jack could very well figure to be a huge pace factor as he is one of the main speeds now that War Pass is out. Bob Black Jack has modest breeding. He is out of Stormy Jack. Bob Black Jack certainly has the speed to get a call for sure, but the big question is if this horse wants anything to do with a 1 ¼. He ran a determined second in the Santa Anita Derby to the highly regarded Colonel John. If you like speed, Bob Black Jack is your horse. We feel he will be on the pace and if anything he will try to take them all the way. It won’t be easy as the final furlong will probably be his demise. There are a few other horses that have some speed, so a speed duel is another issue facing this one.
(12)(-) Court Vision- Gulch – Weekend Storm- Storm Bird, Purchase price $ 800,000 (S/R) Court Vision finally makes an appearance on out ThorougbredZone Derby 12. Court Vision recording an impressive work out at Churchill Downs that many said was a very sharp looking drill. The son of Gulch ran third in the Wood memorial behind Tale of Ekati and War Pass. Court Vision could be coming into his own at the right time. If the work is an indicator of his forward development, he might have something to say. The down side is this, is he fast enough. The Remsen winner over Atoned was not a real fast race, but that was as a two year old. The Wood Memorial time was in a word, what could we say…slow. Final time in 1:52.35. He was able to pass Giant Moon to get the show spot. We think he need to take it to another level to be the Kentucky Derby winner. He is in the hands of the master Bill Mott who has be known to have them ready for big races. He is in good hands. The question is if this one is fast enough to win it.
Off the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12-
Hey Byrn looks to below in the speed and class department. War Pass has been eliminated from Kentucky Derby contention after the discovery of a broken bone in his ankle.
Notable mentions
Other possible entries are two Larry Jones trained fillys. Eight Belles and Proud Spell will be cross entered in the Oaks and Derby. The entry of either or both would knock others out who are on the earnings bubble. Rick Porter will decide after seeing where he they draw in the post position.
ThoroughbredZone 2007 Final Kentucky Derby 12
Stephen J Alicknovic For The ThoroughbredZone
1)(4) Hard Spun- Hard Spun is the new leader here, moving up from number 4 to take over theThoroughbredZones top spot. Based on what I have seen from this guy and the lack of a standout in others there is little doubt he is a legitimate threat in this years Kentucky Derby. Breeding alone makes him a horse that you have to consider by Danzig/Northern Dancer and Turkoman on the bottom gives him the right combination of speed and stamina. His LanesEnd win was one of the more impressive preps by any horse so far in my opinion, galloped out strongly showing no signs of tiring. Hard Spun has the right style. Excellent cruising speed to get into the race without much effort and getting the 1 ¼ is the one thing this horse should not have a problem with, and that is half the battle. Several others could be suspect at the 1 ¼ distance. He will come into the Derby off a 6-week lay off, not the ideal setup, but could very well sitting on his best race yet. Barbaro came into the Derby last year off a similar layoff. The Pennsylvania area has been on a hot streak in recent year with hot Triple Crown prospects such as Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Barbaro and now Hard Spun. This guy could very well keep that trend going. Lots to like.
2)(12) Curlin – From number 12 to number 2 in what is the biggest jump in the ThoroughbredZones Derby list ever. What is there to say? He is now 3 for 3 after his blockbuster Arkansas Derby win. Settled wonderfully behind the early leader in the Arkansas Derby and drew clear as the runaway winner by 10 lengths. He followed up his big Rebel with another impressive victory. He was purchased for 3.5 million by Stonerside and others after his big maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Lightly raced horse has the knock of no races as a two year old. There is no question he lacks the seasoning of some of the others, but with this one it is quality over quantity. Showing Up last year went into the Kentucky Derby off 3 lifetime starts and ran a very solid race. He has the talent. Another classic stalk and pounce style. It would be hard to believe if this guy could win the Derby, but with everything, we have seen so far from him, it is certainly not impossible. In a season of Kentucky Derby prep races, his Rebel and Arkansas Derby was one of a couple brilliant efforts.
3)(1) Scat Daddy- He was the leader of the pack for a short period, but gets dropped back down to number 3. He has shown he has a nose for the winners circle. Won both of Florida’s premier Derby prep races in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. He has defeated Nobiz like Showbiz 2 of the 3 races in which they have met. He is one of 2 horses to win at a 1 1/8 twice, the other being Nobiz like Shobiz. In addition, from a pedigree that suggests going long might not be his thing, we cannot fault his nose for getting to the wire first. Horse rather reminds by of Zito’s High Fly a few years back. Sharp looking son of Johannesburg has a solid foundation and looks like Todd Pletchers best hope to win the roses at this point. Still feel he could be suspect at a 1 ¼, but so far so good.
4)(2)Nobiz Like Shobiz- The Wood Memorial winner dips to the number 4 spot. He had everything his way in the Wood. The inside made things easy for him. The blinkers and earplugs seemed to help him get over his antics in the lane. Many hoped and looked for that blockbuster race he would deliver. It was a win, but not that blockbuster. He raced well enough to hold off the late charge of the classy Phipps Sightseeing. Another thing of mild concern was his ever so slight lug in late. Many have said he was straight as an arrow. He was not, needs to finish even stronger than he did. This one is still developing and could run a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. Big, powerful and a good looking colt need to step it up even more If he is going to win the Derby. He could very well do that. He has more positives than negatives at this point.
5)(6) Street Sense- The plan has been no secret from early on with this horse, get him to the Derby fit and ready to run his race. So far, the plan is working out to a tee, the big effort is all is what is left to make the whole thing work. Has not run back to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile win, in what was a big inside bias that day, but still romped nonetheless flaunting his talent, lost a nose bob to Dominican in the slow-paced Bluegrass Stakes. Raced nice and easy early as they all did and turned it on in the lane to just miss. How much did this one take out of him? Do not think it will hurt him all that much. Will attempt to go back to Churchill Downs and repeat that BC magic after his prep over the polytrack. The Bluegrass was his first try at a 1 1/8. Sharp looking colt could be a big factor if he shows up with his A game the first Saturday in May. Sire won the Dubai World Cup at a 1 1/4. On the bottom is Dixieland Band, speed there. He is a talented colt with connections who would like to win the Derby for sure. That is what they are all about. As we all know he will be trying to be the first horse ever to win the BC Juvenile and go on to win The Kentucky Derby.
6)(-) Dominican- Moves into the main body of Kentucky Derby hopefuls after his second consecutive closing win over the polytrack. Winner of the Rushaway going away, and was able to get his nose to the wire first in the Bluegrass Stakes in one of the most peculiar Derby preps in a very long time. The fractions of this race were like a turtle race throughout, but ran strongly in the stretch to win. There is little doubt that this horse loves the polytrack as he is 3 for 3 over the surfaces, on the flip side has yet to show that same form over a dirt track, that is a mild concern. There is little doubt that this horse is getting good at the right time. He was all out to get the victory over Street Sense. He will have to prolong his kick another furlong in the Kentucky Derby. Pedigree suggest the 1 1 /4 could be an issue. He is an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect that comes out of race that left more questions than answers.
7 (3) Great Hunter Stalked the slow pace set by Teuflesberg in the Bluegrass. Looked as if he was in the catbird seat turning for home, but failed to make that winning bid. Also had some issues in the stretch and lossed some of his momentum, eliminating any chance for a victory. Would hate to think that this race to be a real indicator of his ability. The one thing we do know is almost a certainty is the Kentucky Derby fractions should be a lot swifter aiding his cause, has a nice stalking style that should be able to keep him out of harms way early. PA bred has stamina top and bottom. Still has a reasonable chance to be a factor in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby.
8)(5) Any Given Saturday- Banged heads with Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby and could not get to Nobiz like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial. He was wide in a race with only 6 horses in it, loomed a big threat to Nobiz like Shobiz as they turned for home, but flattened out and failed to haul in the Bizman. Coming off the grueling duel in the Tampa Bay derby, it is safe to say he might have shown some ill effects of that race. Has an up-close stalking style that should help him as well stay out of trouble. The good thing is he did not run a top race in the Wood either, which should help him in Kentucky. He has shown he can run with the better horses of the division, in running second to the highly regarded Tiz Wonderful and Street Sense. Still a little disappointed in the fact he could not stay on with Nobiz in the 1 1/8 event, would need to kick it up to win the Derby. Horse has a good foundation under him, but needs to improve off the Wood.
9)(-) Tiago-Half brother to Kentucky Derby hero long shot special Giacomo, was able to reel in the tiring King of The Roxy in the final furlong of the Santa Anita Derby stamping himself a ticket to Louisville, the same connections as well as Giacomo to. And a similar running style to boot. His breeding suggest a 1 ¼ will not be a factor at all, and that is one thing that is a plus in race such as the Kentucky Derby. Horse is giving up experience to others in this race. They did it before and if this guy is able to get a similar set up, could make his presence felt in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.
10)(7) Circular Quay- Team Tabor opted to skip the Wood Memorial and run in the Kentucky Derby off an 8 week layoff, not the best way to get to the winners circle. They will train him up to a peak effort in Louisville, son of Derby hero Thunder Gulch. Horse has yet to race beyond 1 1/16 and I do not like that. That is a big question mark. There is no doubt that this horse has a solid come from behind kick. His style could lead to traffic issues as horses begin to start going backwards in the stretch. It also looks like he will need to get the right pace scenario to set him up, but he does deliver a big kick and could power on despite not getting the perfect pace set up. The biggest concern is to whether his late kick will be as effective going the 1 ¼ for the first time. There are more questions then answers with this late kicking colt, seems like he might be the type of horse that takes longer than others to recover after a race. Tall order.
11)(-) Zanjero- Makes his debut in the number 11 spot. Another horse that came out of the dopey paced Bluegrass Stakes. This horse is a late running closer who battled on to finish 3rd just behind Dominican and Street Sense in the Bluegrass. A race in which I felt was hard to gauge do to those slow early fractions. He figures to see a much faster pace to run at in Churchill Downs, another horse that could benefit under the right circumstances. Has yet to run the type of race that would make him a legitimate threat, but after the Giacomo Derby, anything is possible for a horse that will be making his 3rd start of his form cycle in the Kentucky Derby for Steve Assmussen. Has yet to win a graded stakes and will need to pick it up several notches to be a factor in the 1 ¼ race. In addition, will that kick be as effective at that distance?
12)(10) Stormello- In a race that looks to be a tad light on the pace scale, Stormello might be the one to take it to them early. This horse has shown he loves to get right to it out of the gate with his speed. Lead until l the final strides in the Fountain of Youth and led in the Florida Derby before giving way late again. Bill Currin says he would like to see the horse change his style, it is a bit late to tinker with a horse’s style, and doing so in the Kentucky Derby is not the best time to tinker with new running styles. I am sure they will decide before the big day how they are going to do it. They should just let this guy do what he does best right out of the gate. His pedigree is probably his biggest obstacle. The 1 ¼ is not his preferred distance and has yet to win beyond a 1 1/16. A pace factor for sure if he runs his race.
Knocking on the Door- Sightseeing closing runner to Nobiz Like Shobiz has staying power, connects have indicated that they would pass the Derby, but if horse is in order would be very tempted to run there,Law Breaker needs to do something soon, Chelokee- Ran a respectable 3rd in the Florida Derby, but looks like graded earnings will be an issue, Cowtown Cat Front running winner of the Illinois Derby, Song Of Navarone winner of the Winstar Derby. Sam P. ran reasonably well in Bob Lewis and Santa Anita Derby. Liquidity ran a 4th in the Santa Anita Derby, has speed in his corner.
Notional-Off due to injury, King Of The Roxy Distance limitations takes him off the list
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