ThoroughbredZone 2007 Final Kentucky Derby 12
1)(4) Hard Spun- Hard Spun is the new leader here, moving up from number 4 to take over theThoroughbredZones top spot. Based on what I have seen from this guy and the lack of a standout in others there is little doubt he is a legitimate threat in this years Kentucky Derby. Breeding alone makes him a horse that you have to consider by Danzig/Northern Dancer and Turkoman on the bottom gives him the right combination of speed and stamina. His LanesEnd win was one of the more impressive preps by any horse so far in my opinion, galloped out strongly showing no signs of tiring. Hard Spun has the right style. Excellent cruising speed to get into the race without much effort and getting the 1 ¼ is the one thing this horse should not have a problem with, and that is half the battle. Several others could be suspect at the 1 ¼ distance. He will come into the Derby off a 6-week lay off, not the ideal setup, but could very well sitting on his best race yet. Barbaro came into the Derby last year off a similar layoff. The Pennsylvania area has been on a hot streak in recent year with hot Triple Crown prospects such as Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Barbaro and now Hard Spun. This guy could very well keep that trend going. Lots to like.
2)(12) Curlin – From number 12 to number 2 in what is the biggest jump in the ThoroughbredZones Derby list ever. What is there to say? He is now 3 for 3 after his blockbuster Arkansas Derby win. Settled wonderfully behind the early leader in the Arkansas Derby and drew clear as the runaway winner by 10 lengths. He followed up his big Rebel with another impressive victory. He was purchased for 3.5 million by Stonerside and others after his big maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Lightly raced horse has the knock of no races as a two year old. There is no question he lacks the seasoning of some of the others, but with this one it is quality over quantity. Showing Up last year went into the Kentucky Derby off 3 lifetime starts and ran a very solid race. He has the talent. Another classic stalk and pounce style. It would be hard to believe if this guy could win the Derby, but with everything, we have seen so far from him, it is certainly not impossible. In a season of Kentucky Derby prep races, his Rebel and Arkansas Derby was one of a couple brilliant efforts.
3)(1) Scat Daddy- He was the leader of the pack for a short period, but gets dropped back down to number 3. He has shown he has a nose for the winners circle. Won both of Florida’s premier Derby prep races in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. He has defeated Nobiz like Showbiz 2 of the 3 races in which they have met. He is one of 2 horses to win at a 1 1/8 twice, the other being Nobiz like Shobiz. In addition, from a pedigree that suggests going long might not be his thing, we cannot fault his nose for getting to the wire first. Horse rather reminds by of Zito’s High Fly a few years back. Sharp looking son of Johannesburg has a solid foundation and looks like Todd Pletchers best hope to win the roses at this point. Still feel he could be suspect at a 1 ¼, but so far so good.
4)(2)Nobiz Like Shobiz- The Wood Memorial winner dips to the number 4 spot. He had everything his way in the Wood. The inside made things easy for him. The blinkers and earplugs seemed to help him get over his antics in the lane. Many hoped and looked for that blockbuster race he would deliver. It was a win, but not that blockbuster. He raced well enough to hold off the late charge of the classy Phipps Sightseeing. Another thing of mild concern was his ever so slight lug in late. Many have said he was straight as an arrow. He was not, needs to finish even stronger than he did. This one is still developing and could run a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. Big, powerful and a good looking colt need to step it up even more If he is going to win the Derby. He could very well do that. He has more positives than negatives at this point.
5)(6) Street Sense- The plan has been no secret from early on with this horse, get him to the Derby fit and ready to run his race. So far, the plan is working out to a tee, the big effort is all is what is left to make the whole thing work. Has not run back to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile win, in what was a big inside bias that day, but still romped nonetheless flaunting his talent, lost a nose bob to Dominican in the slow-paced Bluegrass Stakes. Raced nice and easy early as they all did and turned it on in the lane to just miss. How much did this one take out of him? Do not think it will hurt him all that much. Will attempt to go back to Churchill Downs and repeat that BC magic after his prep over the polytrack. The Bluegrass was his first try at a 1 1/8. Sharp looking colt could be a big factor if he shows up with his A game the first Saturday in May. Sire won the Dubai World Cup at a 1 1/4. On the bottom is Dixieland Band, speed there. He is a talented colt with connections who would like to win the Derby for sure. That is what they are all about. As we all know he will be trying to be the first horse ever to win the BC Juvenile and go on to win The Kentucky Derby.
6)(-) Dominican- Moves into the main body of Kentucky Derby hopefuls after his second consecutive closing win over the polytrack. Winner of the Rushaway going away, and was able to get his nose to the wire first in the Bluegrass Stakes in one of the most peculiar Derby preps in a very long time. The fractions of this race were like a turtle race throughout, but ran strongly in the stretch to win. There is little doubt that this horse loves the polytrack as he is 3 for 3 over the surfaces, on the flip side has yet to show that same form over a dirt track, that is a mild concern. There is little doubt that this horse is getting good at the right time. He was all out to get the victory over Street Sense. He will have to prolong his kick another furlong in the Kentucky Derby. Pedigree suggest the 1 1 /4 could be an issue. He is an interesting Kentucky Derby prospect that comes out of race that left more questions than answers.
7 (3) Great Hunter Stalked the slow pace set by Teuflesberg in the Bluegrass. Looked as if he was in the catbird seat turning for home, but failed to make that winning bid. Also had some issues in the stretch and lossed some of his momentum, eliminating any chance for a victory. Would hate to think that this race to be a real indicator of his ability. The one thing we do know is almost a certainty is the Kentucky Derby fractions should be a lot swifter aiding his cause, has a nice stalking style that should be able to keep him out of harms way early. PA bred has stamina top and bottom. Still has a reasonable chance to be a factor in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby.
8)(5) Any Given Saturday- Banged heads with Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby and could not get to Nobiz like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial. He was wide in a race with only 6 horses in it, loomed a big threat to Nobiz like Shobiz as they turned for home, but flattened out and failed to haul in the Bizman. Coming off the grueling duel in the Tampa Bay derby, it is safe to say he might have shown some ill effects of that race. Has an up-close stalking style that should help him as well stay out of trouble. The good thing is he did not run a top race in the Wood either, which should help him in Kentucky. He has shown he can run with the better horses of the division, in running second to the highly regarded Tiz Wonderful and Street Sense. Still a little disappointed in the fact he could not stay on with Nobiz in the 1 1/8 event, would need to kick it up to win the Derby. Horse has a good foundation under him, but needs to improve off the Wood.
9)(-) Tiago-Half brother to Kentucky Derby hero long shot special Giacomo, was able to reel in the tiring King of The Roxy in the final furlong of the Santa Anita Derby stamping himself a ticket to Louisville, the same connections as well as Giacomo to. And a similar running style to boot. His breeding suggest a 1 ¼ will not be a factor at all, and that is one thing that is a plus in race such as the Kentucky Derby. Horse is giving up experience to others in this race. They did it before and if this guy is able to get a similar set up, could make his presence felt in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby.
10)(7) Circular Quay- Team Tabor opted to skip the Wood Memorial and run in the Kentucky Derby off an 8 week layoff, not the best way to get to the winners circle. They will train him up to a peak effort in Louisville, son of Derby hero Thunder Gulch. Horse has yet to race beyond 1 1/16 and I do not like that. That is a big question mark. There is no doubt that this horse has a solid come from behind kick. His style could lead to traffic issues as horses begin to start going backwards in the stretch. It also looks like he will need to get the right pace scenario to set him up, but he does deliver a big kick and could power on despite not getting the perfect pace set up. The biggest concern is to whether his late kick will be as effective going the 1 ¼ for the first time. There are more questions then answers with this late kicking colt, seems like he might be the type of horse that takes longer than others to recover after a race. Tall order.
11)(-) Zanjero- Makes his debut in the number 11 spot. Another horse that came out of the dopey paced Bluegrass Stakes. This horse is a late running closer who battled on to finish 3rd just behind Dominican and Street Sense in the Bluegrass. A race in which I felt was hard to gauge do to those slow early fractions. He figures to see a much faster pace to run at in Churchill Downs, another horse that could benefit under the right circumstances. Has yet to run the type of race that would make him a legitimate threat, but after the Giacomo Derby, anything is possible for a horse that will be making his 3rd start of his form cycle in the Kentucky Derby for Steve Assmussen. Has yet to win a graded stakes and will need to pick it up several notches to be a factor in the 1 ¼ race. In addition, will that kick be as effective at that distance?
12)(10) Stormello- In a race that looks to be a tad light on the pace scale, Stormello might be the one to take it to them early. This horse has shown he loves to get right to it out of the gate with his speed. Lead until l the final strides in the Fountain of Youth and led in the Florida Derby before giving way late again. Bill Currin says he would like to see the horse change his style, it is a bit late to tinker with a horse’s style, and doing so in the Kentucky Derby is not the best time to tinker with new running styles. I am sure they will decide before the big day how they are going to do it. They should just let this guy do what he does best right out of the gate. His pedigree is probably his biggest obstacle. The 1 ¼ is not his preferred distance and has yet to win beyond a 1 1/16. A pace factor for sure if he runs his race.
Knocking on the Door- Sightseeing closing runner to Nobiz Like Shobiz has staying power, connects have indicated that they would pass the Derby, but if horse is in order would be very tempted to run there,Law Breaker needs to do something soon, Chelokee- Ran a respectable 3rd in the Florida Derby, but looks like graded earnings will be an issue, Cowtown Cat Front running winner of the Illinois Derby, Song Of Navarone winner of the Winstar Derby. Sam P. ran reasonably well in Bob Lewis and Santa Anita Derby. Liquidity ran a 4th in the Santa Anita Derby, has speed in his corner.
Notional-Off due to injury, King Of The Roxy Distance limitations takes him off the list
Loading ...